Betfair Trading advice/help

[klaymore79]

Don't post much, but read a lot to expand my knowledge and ideas base. I am hopeless at picking winners, on footie or the horses, and if I try and lay instead, I usually screw that up too. The only thing I am any good at is trading, which i have had some limited success. I can make quick trades on horses just before the off, and also on the over/unders market for football pretty well. However, my main problem seems to be my decisions on when to trade, and when to get out. Last week I found £20 in an old Paddy Power account, and transferred the funds to Betfair, with the intention of trading to make 1.5% per day so that in a year I could buy a motorbike. First few days went fine, making quick trades during lunch at work and making my 1.5% easily. Saturday, however, was a different story. I made my 1.5% easy enough, but having nothing else to do, kept going anyways, and eventually made a bad trade that I couldn't get out of and lost it all. :wall I'm looking for some tips/help/advice/anything that could help me stop making these stupid decisions. I am considering only doing this on weekdays when I am at work and have limited time, and not on weekends or days off, but this would also limit time to make back losses. Thoughts?

[flower567]

Re: Betfair Trading advice/help get yourself more disciplined - concentrate on either football or horses - myself i do just football and here on 1 market only: over 2.5 goals back over 2.5 and lay off (using a back/lay calculator) if a goal is scored - you must have a plan to trade out at half time - even with a small loss most traders are too greedy - the main point is getting yr screen "GREEN" = guaranteed profit = discipline. (even small profits increase yr bankroll) the best time for these trades are the weekends or midweek when the football leagues are running. (august) currently the scandinavian market is active so there should be enough possibilities for trades. don`t forget: a green screen must be your target

[shoeshine85]

Re: Betfair Trading advice/help @klaymore79: once I tried trading and I experienced the same thing... I got carried away and lost the hard earned money @flower567: how much do you average with this kind of strategy... ie.How much money do you make when you lay off as soon as a goal is scored? To be honest I never tried to bet in such market!

[klaymore79]

Re: Betfair Trading advice/help How much you make depends on the market, stakes, and how many ticks you go. Trading on odds of 1.98 to 1.96 won't get much, but if you can find something like 3.5 to 2.2 or bigger swings, the larger gap gives you bigger returns. I was sticking to one/two tick betting, making it easy for my 1.5%, but was finding it too tempting on Saturday to go for more, and ended up losing the lot. A while ago I took £20 up to £88 or thereabouts, through more aggresive trading, one-ticking throughout entire football matches, but again lost it when I over-reached.

[flower567]

Re: Betfair Trading advice/help normally I go for odds for over 2.5 goals around 1.8 to 2 with a tenner only. now if a goal is scored the lay odds come down to 1.6 - now here is the point to either get a guaranted profit of say 2 to 4 euros/trade or being greedy and wait for a second goal in first half. it all depends of the game you have chosen. if a second goal is scored the lay odds are around 1.1 to 1.15 which results in a profit of say 7 to 9 euros/trade. lucky one if a third goal is scored in first have to win the over trade without laying. if you wonna try here is the back/lay hedge calculater i use: http://www.betcalc.com/backlaycalc.php Just make sure you trade out for either a green screen or latest at half time with a small loss. (NEVER go any further into second half to hope goals are being scored) it can happen but most of the time it won`t because the game chosen was the wrong one. If you don`t trade out you have to sit it out - that`s the reason I only use a tenner for trading - can live with that loss and recover it with one or two additional trade. 1 or 2 trades a day can give a nice additional income - avoid the big names like Chelsea, Manu etc - the odds for goals are terrible - I go for the championsShip and L1 and L2 - lot of opportunities and most of them are in-play markets. Good Luck

[shoeshine85]

Re: Betfair Trading advice/help flower567 - excellent post. Thank you - you really made me think. Just a further question, could you state your success rate (from experience) ? :) Thank you

[flower567]

Re: Betfair Trading advice/help have no record about my success rate - fairly new to betting business but I learned a lot by checking the pl and other forums threads for trading etc. use the search option of this forum and look for trading and betfair - being disciplined and trade out will always give a green screen and a guaranted profit - considering that i am able to withdraw from betfair when i have reached a certain amount, there must be some sucess - you need to find your own way of trading but i can only repeat myself: be disciplined and trade out when you have the possibility. even with 1 euro profit/trade you are on 30 a month and 365 a year - does not look bad at all.

[shoeshine85]

Re: Betfair Trading advice/help @flower567 - I like your system and I intend to investigate it even further. Thank you for sharing it

[happyhatter]

Re: Betfair Trading advice/help I have three unwritten rules of trading on Betfair If i have a big bet of 1000 sterling - i go on under 4.5 goals before the start which range from 1.08 to 1.15 for most games. I trade out fairly early when I am 50 to the good. I rely on the game coming in under 4.5 goals for my money - if its over I lose nothing. Thsi is not failsafe!!!! If I have a medium bet of 100 to 250 sterling I go on under 3.5 goals after 15 minutes of play. I tend to trade out at 25 sterling if I win or lose (this is my most successful method but i have been burnt a number of times) If I have a smallish bet of 25 I go on 1.5 goals (or 2.5 goals if 1 or 2 goals already scored and so on). The odds are much better here but so is the risk. I tend to trade out 10/15 sterling if i have the balls to stick it out. Whilst all the above is great I have not as much discipline as I should (for a man of 45!). I now play with only 100 sterling and am trying to win 100 per day. I live and work in Saudi and my job allows me plenty of opportunity to watch betfair all day long. As there is bugger all to do at night I aslo play at night

[shoeshine85]

Re: Betfair Trading advice/help @happyhatter - you mean you watch the match and see how probable it is to keep in your bets? or you just analyse the odds?

[happyhatter]

Re: Betfair Trading advice/help I watch the odds more or less. If it is on betfair TV I might watch it but I am pretending to work same time. I do keep my eye on various websites as well to get a feel for any in play stats such as shots, bookings but to be honest I watch the odds and get out before I feel uncomfortable. Eg Currently I am on Japan v England u20 womens World cup. I put 100 sterling on less than 3.5 goals at odds of 1.44 to 1. its currently half time with the Japanese winning 1-0. Currently I could lay at 1.25 to 1 (thus negating my loss to zero and making 18 sterling profit if the game ends less than 3.5 goals). However I feel comfortable and will stick it out for at least another 15 minutes (this is 5pm Saudi time, 3pm UK time on Wed 21st July). The idea as many have said is to have green all over the screen

[shoeshine85]

Re: Betfair Trading advice/help @happyhatter can you pm me (or state here in the forums) which website do you use to get live information like ball possession, bookings, fouls :))) Thank you

[happyhatter]

Re: Betfair Trading advice/help Shoeshine - I tend to use ESPN - go to their live match or game centre section. I also look at BBC sport site too who give updates on most of the English games but ESPN is the better (although they all do lag a few minutes behind the game)