AFL Rd. 16.

[TazaD]

Crows +4 goals? ...Pretty sure I am that brave this week. Numbers are bloody amazing, both last 5 and @ Home... Last 5 58-40 I50's!...Geelong a mild 54-49...Crows 52-41 at home on the season even...their D still is a concern, and it's easy to argue their recent opponents haven't been at all flash, but Geelong's form is far from impressive... ...not to mention 3 common opponents in those 5 game...Crows have Geelong covered in a lot of areas in those games...[Ess and WC] ...even the Hawks game (which looks bad on the surface), there's effectively only 4 shots difference, Crows on the road in that one too obviously. Cats have won the last couple here easily, but since the last time (early last year) Geelong have won just 1 of their last 7 away from Vic by more than 24. Another thing worth mentioning is Geelong away from Kardinia...av'ing just +2 I50's and +2 shots... Reckon the Crows are a genuine chance of getting up here. 4 goals looks big. I don't trust Hawthorn to cover big(ish) spreads (Syd, Port, Ess). Can't possibly trust Brisbane on the road... ...will wait for team news, look for a definate under (won't happen)...meh... West Coast/Ess?! Bombers were unbelievably stiff last week ** ... ...+8 I50's, +6 shots (could argue a couple late/meaningless)...but Melbourne 5, FIVE goals from 50m penalties, and at least another one (Watts) from an amazingly soft free kick... ...but form-wise, Eagles aren't all that bad...last 7 they've played the top 5 teams!!...plus probably the 2 best 'other' form teams (Ade/Rich). Tough to pick a winner...numbers all pretty similar (similarly bad!)... ...could be a sneaky ...amazingly 9 of last 12 meetings have been...each of the last 5 @ Dome... Over a low number... ** ...and, obviously on the flip side, the Dees were very, very lucky! (imho, even watching the game)... ...so interested in Freo this week. Would have loved a few less points...hopefully they get some love later in the week. Numbers worry me slightly, Freo -10 I50's in their last 5!...don't generally dominate that area even at home...their big thing @ home is scoring, a shot every 1.68 entries is shit-hot...and allowing a shot every 2.31 entries in their last 5 is 3rd best in the League... ...and take out the top 3 teams (Which Melbourne certainly aren't!), Dockers have won 7 of last 7 at home by 38+. Reckon I'll be on them...like I said, would like a -25 or so... The other game I'm reasonably interested in is Sydney +11.5 Carlton can't score...a shot every 2.24 entries in their last 5 is 2nd worst...up against the 4th best Swans (give up a shot every 2.23)...even on the road the Swans have been solid (2.10)... ...what actaully is impressive about the Swans on the road is their scoring! Are creating a shot every 1.85 entries (Only Freo better!)...take out the game @ Geelong it goes to 1.79... Tough to see Carlton dominating the midfield enough to get passed those kind of numbers. Jusst 3 trips to Melbourne this year have been a 2 and a 4 point loss (Hawks and Rich, arguably going better than Carlton right now), and a 40 win over North at this venue... ...actually again, take out the top 3 teams in the comp. and the Swans have lost just 1 game of their last 6 in Melbourne by more than 11... ...admittedly that was v. Carlton last year here, but i) Just 4 I50's difference in that game...if that happens again here Swans win...ii) Fev and Kruezer combined for 7.3. Sydney +11.5 Adelaide +24.5 [both Cent] ...don't reckon I'll see better. Also...will explain a bit later in more detail, but I've just done the good ol' ladder predictor again...mainly because I thought Freo @ 2.50 for top 4 was big...turns out Dogs probably will get over the line...but... ...but...(wait for it...)... Richmond Tigers Top 8 (34.00) [Cent] I did it twice, because the first time I couldn't believe my eyes!! Second time with more conservative results (using the draw)... ...I've got Sydney and Hawks as definates...Crows and North as no's...leaving Tiges and Carlton for 8th! Couple of BIG games obviously...but if Carlton lose this week (big chance) and Tiges win (favs) over a genuine rival for that spot, I'd suggest the Yellow and Black are just about in the box seat. :unsure Still reasonably happy with my Melbourne Wooden Spoon ticket, even after such a god-awful win...still reckon they struggle to get any more points...WC and Port both have winnable home games to come (and Bris)... :cheers

[goochrules]

Re: AFL Rd. 16. :okTaza you have the same feel as me mate about the top at i loved adelaide at around $7 my tip this week Adelaide @ $3.80 sportingbet I really feel geelong have lost their way abit, ablett has put the club in a predicament with his selfish attitude, and leaving the club in limbo, everything is starting to go adelaides way, i feel infront of a big crowd at home with Tippett and Walker firing they are a BIG chance to knock of Cats