AFL Rd. 14.

[TazaD]

Likin' the look of a few totals this week...hopefully the books play along. Anyway, first things first... ...how do we rate Brisbane without Brown? :\ Tempted to be on the Lions here @ +20.5, but a big [admittedly expected] loss to the Doggies...even a kinda half, not surprising loss to the Tiges last week... ...meh...very much got a Carlton v. WC look about it tho... ...will definately be looking towards a total tho...it's very much got a Carlton v. WC look about it...;) :lol Richmond SU (2.15) {Flemington Sportsbet} Can't see why Tige's wouldn't be favs here. Bradshaw back this week I guess, possibly Kennelly too, but Richmond are playing as well as anyone right now. Winning games at the bookends...the (equal) second best team (behind Dogs) for Forward/Back ratio numbers in their last 4 games (1.82 F / 2.21 B)...Teams simply have to beat them in the middle to be able to win the game. Swans not a big I50 team at all on the road...av. just 43...51 being their best @ a pretty terrible Port right now... ...even so, Rich av'ing 49 in their last 6...51.4 if we take out the Saints. Terrible record v. Swans, but mostly as BIG dogs (haven't been favs in last 10)... ...Team playing better football shouldn't be 2.15. :ok Crows -9.5 (1.92) Jumping on this one now...will probably rise with Hille missing again. I said last week that I've been impressed with the Crows at home lately... ...back to their (historical) Neil Craig midfield defensive best! +10 I50's now on the whole season @ home...have topped 53 in each of their last 4 aswell!!...in fact 65 and 60 last 2!! :eek... ...that's god-awful news for a Bomber midfield who have given up 60+ in each of their last 3. [Funny how Hille has missed 2.9 of those 3 games ;) ] Exactly the same conversion rate over the last 4 games (2.08 each), Crows going better at home tho (1.94)... ...although their D can still be a worry (pretty stable @ ~1.85), sheer weight of I50's should ensure at least 4 more shots. SHOULD be well and truly enough! (Although with Ess straight kicking and Crows not-so-much... :spank) I do like one more spread...but it's definately the time of the year when the books start severely under-pricing "certain" winners. 4 games @ 6 goals or more...wouldn't at all be surprised to see those h'caps go 2-2... ...How the hell does a team av'ing -10 I50's in their last 4 games (-16 last 3!!!) become a 40 point fav? ...or a team av'ing 83 ppg in their last 5 start at over half the tonne!! :cow ...or, even a team with more than half their forward-line missing... ...either way, people will back them, nothing surer. You'd be brave to be on any of the dogs tho. (Ash, you out there? :unsure :lol ) [fwiw, I do like the Saints, but happy to wait for some more lines. :ok

[Henry Jr]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. Agree with the Crows line Taz. Plus with Fletcher and Pears missing from their leaky defence as well. :dude