AFL Rd. Too Many

[TazaD]

Looks like a prtty tough week to make a dollar... Hawks deserved favs...their midfield pressure is back to 2008 best...to a certain extent their D has stepped up too...allowing just 43 I50's in their last 4 games...+8 is 3rd behind Geelong/Saints... ...Bombers midfield have stopped to a walk in contrast...-7 in their last 5, only getting on top of Richmond (and a semi-uncharacteristic Bulldogs with a million turnovers)... ...Hawks have second best shots/I50 conversion behind Geelong in their last 4, so without breaking even in the middle it's almost impossible to stay in the game. Bombers still have good conversion tho (3rd best goal/I50 last 4), so it's tough for me to oppose them by too much...esp. given the Hawks have won just one game of 7 this year at the 'G by more than 2 goals... ...seets up as a low scorer, but given Ess have given up 29 and 39 shots in their last two, I doubt I'll be involved at all. Don't think Carlton should be favs...but I reckon it will be close. Was hoping for a decent price, but less than 1.90 early is a bit rough. Freo road form is ok, in fact their D has been good, a shot every 2.36 entries is very good!...-2 I50's, but Carlton in the red themselves... ...and, despite the media (Luke Darcy!) going on and on about their attack scoring 100+ at will, only a shot every 2.15 entries in their last 4 could mean a long night for the Blues. Likely low scorer (Freo have topped 100 just once in their last 9 in Vic, start of 09 season!), but a couple of Carlton snoozers will ensure books will be ready. Remarkably 5 of 6 (2006) games have been decided by 18 or less, and I dare say they match up pretty well here again.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. Too Many Can't possibly trust Brisbane given their last 4 games, and given their current personel. BOTH teams -4 I50's last 4, but Richmond have MUCH better numbers at BOTH ends. BUT (Sorry, over the capitals now! :D), Lions just 1 of last 4 at home...beat the Pies obviously...can't score, but neither can the Tiges. Just last week over 95 for the year (WC away from home doesn't count)...and av. just 61 ppg in their last 5 away from Vic (4 this year). Still, hard to trust either (loosely termed) defenses...Won't be a monster scorer couldn't possibly take the Lions as favs atm... Rubbish game 1... :D ...and no. 2. Kangas by 20?! ANother very good candidate for a I would have thought. (Who needs angry, rivalry round, eh? ;) ) Port, 5 of last 8 overall have been close (and a 26)...6 of the last 8 meeting have been 16 or closer!! :eek ...Port 5 of last 8 have been close @ Dome, inc. a 3 point win this year (Ess) and a 5 point loss to Nth last year. ...Nth beat Crows by 9, Melb by 26...both very similar numbers to Port... I guess Kangas deserve to be favs, but 20 points is silly...Under an unlikely high number... Unpopular upset of the week? I reckon the Eagles are more than a rough chance here. Initial thought was Dogs easy, let me at that spread...:tongue2 ... ...but it just doesn't sit well. Dogs off a big win, but as I suspected they scored easily v. a horrible Lions road mid/D, and with Brown out they were never going to keep up... ...Eagles off a horrible loss to the worst team of the last 10 years...can't op 80 on the road...meh... ...different story at home. Just 47 I50's allowed...25 shots...only given up more than 26 to Geelong... Scoring could be their worry against this kinda crazily solid Dogs D, but given the midfield should be pretty even...they've had 25+ shots in 8 of their last 10 at home... Eagles won both games last year...at home well as 2.65 dogs...not so well (22 shots to 32 @ Dome) later in the year... ...Doggies have been favs twice here in the last 2 years...lost to Eagles, and lost to Freo by 3 @ 1.71... ...and they are no St. Kilda or Geelong this year (35 and 24 point wins). Reckon I'll tip the Eagles, but not sure I'll open the wallet...I seriously think I would break a tv watching the turnover kings ham it up against my own team!! Will hope (again, unrealistically) for a decent under number... :spank :cheers