How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

[Jenspm]

I know most of you are familiar with the concept of bet value, but I thought I’d make a short guide on exactly how you can find these value bets. First of all though, I must explain what value is and the importance of it.

As you can read in my signature, value is defined as “the amount that is considered to be a fair equivalent for something else”. In betting, a fair price is a price, or odd, that represents the correct percentage of the outcome that is bet upon. To find out what percentage the odds you take represent, simply divide 100 by the decimal odds. Odds of 2.0 imply a probability of 100/2 = 50%, while odds of 5.0 imply a probability of 100/5=20%. If the odds on a team are 5.0, but you think the chance of them winning is higher than 20%, then it’s a value bet, and always worth backing. If you think Barcelona has an 80% chance of beating Mallorca, but the odds are at 1.20, it is not a value bet, and never worth backing. Sure, there’s an 80% chance that you’ll profit on the match, but if you keep taking bets like this, you will ALWAYS lose money in the long run. As a matter of fact, value betting is the only way to ensure a long-term betting profit.

So, how do you figure out if a bet is value? Well, there’s only one way to do this correctly, and unfortunately, it’s quite a time-consuming procedure. But hey, we’re in it for the money aren’t we? Once you’ve gotten the hang of this technique, you’ll see your profits steadily rise, and you’ll become what one would call a “consistent punter”. What we’re going to do is compile our own odds, and try to beat the bookies (or other betters on an exchange), and therefore secure a long term profit. It’s hard to make accurate predictions – it’s impossible to get it perfect, what with all the factors that are in play. However, you can get pretty accurate in the end, and get an advantage over the bookie especially if you have knowledge of an obscure league, like a Romanian 3^rd division, or down into the Blue Squares in England. In any case, this process will force you to look more into your bets, and ensure that you have more quality bets.

Now, onto the actual odds compiling. First of all, you cannot do this accurately based on only statistics. With enough work and a good system you can get pretty damn close, but not close enough for our liking. You have to have good knowledge of the league in question, and should consider the following factors, in addition to home/away records and pure class:

· Form

· Motivation

· Injuries

· Recent events around a team (manager fired, etc)

· Other factors.

However, at least when starting compiling odds, I feel the home and away records of the two teams are a great starting point. Here you simply find the home team’s percentages of wins, draws and losses at home, and the away team’s percentage of wins draws and losses away. To find the percentage, you divide the amount of wins by the total number of games, for example. So, an example:

Home team at home: 6-2-3

Away team away: 2-4-5

That gives the home team percentages of: 55 – 18 – 27

And it gives the away team percentages of: 45 – 36 – 18

(Note that I turned the away teams record around, 45 represents the chance of the away team losing = 5/11)

You then find the average of those to percentages, by adding them up and dividing by two. That gives us the following percentages: 50 – 27 – 23

There we have it – a nice base. Now we must apply the points noted above – form, motivation, injuries, recent events, etc, and adjust those percentages. How much those factors play in is hard to decide, but it’s something you’ll have to experiment with. Once you’re finished, divide 100 by the numbers you have gotten to get your take on the decimal odds. The bookies do exactly this every time they put up odds, and your goal is to create odds more accurately than them. So basically, if your odds are lower than his, it’s worth a backing. Else, stay away.

Bet value can also be represented by a number. To find this number, simply multiply your percentage chance by the bookies odds. Anything over 100 = value. Example: Chance of 51%, odds of 2.0 => 51 x 2 = 102, the bet value is 102% and worth backing. When compiling your first odds, it’s important to remember: at this stage, the bookies are most likely better than you. So, if you differ too much from the bookies (value over 115% is usually wrong), adjust it. Anything over 110% and you need to double check everything. HOWEVER: you can be correct in your 115% bet value, so if you’re certain in your analysis, don’t change it just because the bookies are pricing it higher than you.

Staking

The most popular staking plan out there that works based on bet value is called the Kelly Criterion. I’m not going to go into detail about this system, but you can read more about it here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion . Warning: it does recommend using a large portion of your bankroll, and you need to have pretty damn accurate percentages if you don’t want to go bankrupt. I personally use a staking plan based on Kelly, where I use a points system instead of percentage. Ie, if it recommends a 5% stake, I stake 5pts. Anything over 10% = 10pts.

I have attached an Excel sheet that I have created myself, and recommend the download (sorry it's a .zip, I don't think the forum allows .xlsx). Basically, you plot in your 1X2 percentages for up to 8 games at a time, as well as the bookie’s odds, and it automatically shows you “your odds”, bet value, and recommended stake according to the Kelly Criterion. It also does Asian Handicaps. If you want anything else added, feel free to ask.

The table on the Excel sheet’s first page can be copied into the forum to easily show fellow forum users your take on fair odds for the game. I hope this starts a trend of people actively seeking value on these forums, as that is, imo, the only way to bet for long term profit. Please, feel free to ask should there be any questions, or report any bugs or requests with the Excel sheet.

Happy Betting!

[Jase82]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Great post Jens :ok I agree, you have to be searching always for that little bit of edge. I've always struggled with staking though, which is something I'm looking at in greater detail for next season.

[Jenspm]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

Great post Jens :ok I agree, you have to be searching always for that little bit of edge. I've always struggled with staking though, which is something I'm looking at in greater detail for next season.

I too had trouble with staking, but that was before I discovered the Kelly Criterion. I think it's the best way to stake, as the stakes rise not only as the probability or value rises, but both :)

[jovinco]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) :clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap:clap Great initiative, Jens.

[jtw1]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) One mans 'Value' pick is another mans losing bet at 'decent' odds .:eyes In football betting the difference in the odds on offer from various bookies is so slight as to make it hardly worth bothering about . Find your winners first , pick the best odds on offer and the rest will follow :ok

[Jenspm]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

One mans 'Value' pick is another mans losing bet at 'decent' odds .:eyes In football betting the difference in the odds on offer from various bookies is so slight as to make it hardly worth bothering about . Find your winners first , pick the best odds on offer and the rest will follow :ok

I'm not talking about the difference in the odds between the bookies, but the difference in odds between you and the bookies. If I were to follow you're strategy, and find a match where there's a 60% chance of a Barca victory. Obviously, and naturally, you'd think Barca will win, and well, there's a 60% chance - they probably will. However, the odds are 1.60. If you put £100 on it, you'll probably end up winning £60. However, if you place 100 similar bets (not on the same fixture, but with the same percentages and odds), statistically you should end up with 60 winners and 40 losing bets. That's £3600 in winners, and -£4000 in losers, meaning you'll end up with a £400 loss. The fact is, whether you like it or not, the only way to achieve a long term profit in betting is betting on value. You don't have to back a team at 12/1 because it's value, but the least you can do is not bet on who you think will win if the odds don't represent value. That's a normal strategy, and something I'd recommend if you're more into short-term profit: pick who you think will win, check if there's value, and then, if there is value in the odds, place your bet. Otherwise, I can guarantee you, you will lose money in the long run ;)

[John007]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) looks interesting , but we need a system to find "our odds" . we must have a clear system that give us the most accurate "odds" on a match, and that "perfect" system i guess doesn't exist!

[Jenspm]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

looks interesting ' date=' but we need a system to find "our odds" . we must have a clear system that give us the most accurate "odds" on a match, and that "perfect" system i guess doesn't exist![/quote'] nope - you cannot rely on a system for this. As I said, there are so many other variables (injuries, motivation, etc) that a system simply cannot take into consideration. You're going to have to use your own judgement, and while that'll never be perfect, you can get pretty close. And you have to remember, the bookies odds are set by people too, thus they'll never get it perfect either ;)

[ultravires]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Very informative Jens. Thanks a lot.

[jtw1]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

The fact is, whether you like it or not, the only way to achieve a long term profit in betting is betting on value. You don't have to back a team at 12/1 because it's value, but the least you can do is not bet on who you think will win if the odds don't represent value. That's a normal strategy, and something I'd recommend if you're more into short-term profit: pick who you think will win, check if there's value, and then, if there is value in the odds, place your bet. Otherwise, I can guarantee you, you will lose money in the long run ;)

In YOUR opinion of course ;)

[Jenspm]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

In YOUR opinion of course ;)

well, I believe I've mathematically proven it :unsure

[jtw1]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

well' date=' I believe I've mathematically proven it :unsure[/quote'] Only if you have an average strike rate . If you can improve your strike rate to above average then surely you will profit no matter if the odds are considered by yourself to be 'value' or not ?

[Jenspm]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

Only if you have an average strike rate . If you can improve your strike rate to above average then surely you will profit no matter if the odds are considered by yourself to be 'value' or not ?

Well, that's my point, really, because in the end, after many bets, your strike rate will be the chance of your selected teams winning. Say your strike rate is at an impressive 75%. However, all your matches are backed at odds of 1.30 - you've lost money. However, if you have a strike rate of a more modest 55%, and all your matches are backed at odds of 1.90 - you're in profit. Thus the point stands - your strike rate depends on the chance of a team winning, and your profit depends on the odds compared to the chance of the team winning - the value of the bet :)

[jtw1]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

Well, that's my point, really, because in the end, after many bets, your strike rate will be the chance of your selected teams winning. Say your strike rate is at an impressive 75%. However, all your matches are backed at odds of 1.30 - you've lost money. However, if you have a strike rate of a more modest 55%, and all your matches are backed at odds of 1.90 - you're in profit. Thus the point stands - your strike rate depends on the chance of a team winning, and your profit depends on the odds compared to the chance of the team winning - the value of the bet :)

Cant quite get why you use the betting the same odds all the time as i think the majority of punters know full well that betting teams that are all , say , 1.20 will not produce profit . If you have a strike rate around 75% but your odds can vary in the norm between 1.2 up to 2.5 for example , then YOU WILL make a tidy profit and if you need proof take a look at my Football Rating systems just below this thread on the S+S section .

[Jenspm]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

Cant quite get why you use the betting the same odds all the time as i think the majority of punters know full well that betting teams that are all , say , 1.20 will not produce profit . If you have a strike rate around 75% but your odds can vary in the norm between 1.2 up to 2.5 for example , then YOU WILL make a tidy profit and if you need proof take a look at my Football Rating systems just below this thread on the S+S section .

definately. And if your strike rate is 75% over time with average odds over 1.50 you're making a great profit, and most likely most of your picks represent value as well :) Why? A strike rate of 75% over a long period of time means your picks on average have had a 75% chance of winning. If your average odds are over 1.33, then, well, you'll most likely be in profit, and you've found value. "i think the majority of punters know full well that betting teams that are all , say , 1.20 will not produce profit ." - see, you're thinking value yourself, you've just not done it as concretely as I have suggested with this thread. Most people say "ahh, I fancy them to win, but those odds are too short." Well, same principle here, except we're trying to define exactly what the minimum odds should be for a bet, when the odds stop being too short. Furthermore, betting on 1.20 odds will most definately produce a profit if your strike rate (ie the chance of a team winning) is over 83%. :ok

[1907zico]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Well in my opinion this approach is fine, but it is difficult to get your own odds right in the long-term. You include many subjective aspects such as form, injuries, motivation etc. You can over-/underrate many things this way. In my opinion, if your specialized on one league you will get the flow - knowing which teams will most likely win and being able to see if the odds represented are at least fair. High hit rate and the right prices are vital. Of course it is a good basis to start with some estimations, but to do the estimations right the vital work is to know the league, the teams, the players to be able to rate the information better than the bookies - in the long term. ;)

[Jenspm]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

In my opinion' date=' if your specialized on one league you will get the flow - knowing which teams will most likely win and being able to see if the odds represented are at least fair. [/quote'] mhm - two sides of the same coin really. While I prefer to compile my own odds, you go with the feeling of whether the odds are good or not. One tactic isn't better than the other, the most important thing is that both look for value :ok

[Lardonio]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

well' date=' I believe I've mathematically proven it :unsure[/quote'] You haven't proven it, but it has been proven ages ago by mathematicians. It's impossible to win long-term without betting value, that's fairly obvious to anyone who understands a little math. Of course, a person who does not understand math can still be a winning (value) gambler. And a person placing 1 bet can always win even if the bet is not value - on short-term betting luck and bad luck are factors.

[Jenspm]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

You haven't proven it' date=' but it has been proven ages ago by mathematicians. [/quote'] Of course, it wasn't my intention to insinuate that I'm the origin of all this :loon

[Lardonio]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) I know, I was just joking a bit :tongue2 Good job in publishing this info, it's always helpful for beginners and a good reminder for more experienced punters. It's amazing how many people who have read odds coupons for decades still don't understand even the principle of value.

[PAW]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Whatever happend to the s in maths? It seems to have gone missing in recent times. I wish it would come back, I miss it

[jtw1]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

I know' date=' I was just joking a bit :tongue2 Good job in publishing this info, it's always helpful for beginners and a good reminder for more experienced punters. It's amazing how many people who have read odds coupons for [b']decades still don't understand even the principle of value.

Pardon me if i'm being a tad paranoid here Lardonio in assuming it's an old codger like myself your comment is aimed at but i would like to clear up one fact and that is I do understand fully the principle of value but my gripe is about comments if you do not follow 'value' then you cannot profit in the long term . Here's the defination of 'in principle' - 'If you agree with or believe something in principle, you agree with the idea in general, although you might not support it in reality or in every situation In principle I agree with the idea, but in practice it's not always possible.' That sums statement sums up 'VALUE' for me. My 'system' that i asked Jens to look at DOES NOT take value into consideration , ie - NO game can be ignored because I think the odds are too skinny , yet it has shown a decent profit in only 4 months . I have not even used to best odds available for the example !! [i have no accounts with some of them , maybe it would be sensible to do so ;)] I do realise that the number of matches looked at is still fairly small to state for certain that it is a long-term profitable betting proposition but still , there it is, in black and white - Profit without considering value

[1907zico]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) There are always different ways to make long-term profit. :ok You can also hold a good long-term profit if you keep a high hit-rate without regarding the prices. If your confident a pick will win then you should take it. However, it then would be a difficult job to be a) so well informed that you know which pick contains a high hit rate and b) find a consistent way of gathering and bale information in the right way. If you go for value, your system/estimations will highlight the picks you should take. If you go for high hit rate you will need the same and it somewhat should be not based or influenced from the odds given by the bookies.

[Lardonio]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

Pardon me if i'm being a tad paranoid here Lardonio in assuming it's an old codger like myself your comment is aimed at but i would like to clear up one fact and that is I do understand fully the principle of value but my gripe is about comments if you do not follow 'value' then you cannot profit in the long term .

It was not aimed at you or anyone else, so it's just paranoia :sad

My 'system' that i asked Jens to look at DOES NOT take value into consideration ' date=' ie - [b']NO game can be ignored because I think the odds are too skinny , yet it has shown a decent profit in only 4 months . I have not even used to best odds available for the example !! [i have no accounts with some of them , maybe it would be sensible to do so ;)] I do realise that the number of matches looked at is still fairly small to state for certain that it is a long-term profitable betting proposition but still , there it is, in black and white - Profit without considering value

I'm not sure you understand value completely ;) While value betting can be described as betting on an event happening more often than the bookmaker thinks it will happen, it's still only a bet; a prediction. As I wrote earlier, it is possible to produce profits without understanding value. Therefore, it's obviously possible to produce profits while understanding value, but not considering it. The only thing that is impossible, and we're always talking long-term here, is producing a profit without betting value bets. There is no other way of accurately judging value than doing what you do; looking at a project in hind-sight and seeing that it was profitable. That proves you are doing value betting, or at least it will be proved if you continue betting with profit long-term. Not even the people who understand value and bet what they call 'value bets' will know if they actually bet value before they look at their betting history after a certain time and a certain number of bets - and it's profitable. I'm struggling to explain it in English as it's not my native language, but value is subjective and as such can only be measured reliably by looking at actual data; history. Then you can make fairly reliable assumptions about future bets as well, i.e. it would be fairly safe to say that a system that has produced value for the previous 1.000 bets would continue to do so for the next 1.000 bets - although there's no guarantee.

[jtw1]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

It was not aimed at you or anyone else, so it's just paranoia :sad I'm not sure you understand value completely ;) While value betting can be described as betting on an event happening more often than the bookmaker thinks it will happen, it's still only a bet; a prediction. As I wrote earlier, it is possible to produce profits without understanding value. Therefore, it's obviously possible to produce profits while understanding value, but not considering it. The only thing that is impossible, and we're always talking long-term here, is producing a profit without betting value bets. There is no other way of accurately judging value than doing what you do; looking at a project in hind-sight and seeing that it was profitable. That proves you are doing value betting, or at least it will be proved if you continue betting with profit long-term. Not even the people who understand value and bet what they call 'value bets' will know if they actually bet value before they look at their betting history after a certain time and a certain number of bets - and it's profitable. I'm struggling to explain it in English as it's not my native language, but value is subjective and as such can only be measured reliably by looking at actual data; history. Then you can make fairly reliable assumptions about future bets as well, i.e. it would be fairly safe to say that a system that has produced value for the previous 1.000 bets would continue to do so for the next 1.000 bets - although there's no guarantee.

Apologies for the paranoia :ok Thanks for the reasoned reply , i do see where your coming from .

[horsehandicapper]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) This is too simple system and I find it very hard to believe it would work. What if at the start of the season the other team has played against tough opponents and the other team against bad opponents.... your stats would be all skewed and so would your odds. There are many ways do your own odds but this seems so naiive. I know you said this is a STARTING POINT but still. Why not take the starting point from something more useful like ratings, ELO stats etc.

[Juret]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) :clap this is indeed the approach. cool forum, great thing I found it. I usually base my ratings from basic home/away scoring stats but I do adjust more or less due to circumstances such as expected XI, the team's approach to the game, team situation, team spirit. sometimes I just get that feeling inside which team will under-/overperform which could create value.

[Parkinho]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) Good post, this is something I recently started implementing myself. This post provides a nice confidence boost in the potential of the figures that I have been running!

[Jenspm]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet)

:clap this is indeed the approach. cool forum, great thing I found it. I usually base my ratings from basic home/away scoring stats but I do adjust more or less due to circumstances such as expected XI, the team's approach to the game, team situation, team spirit. sometimes I just get that feeling inside which team will under-/overperform which could create value.

Good post' date=' this is something I recently started implementing myself. This post provides a nice confidence boost in the potential of the figures that I have been running![/quote'] Cool stuff guys, and welcome to the forums :)

[Sir ratholer]

Re: How to beat the bookies – a value betting guide (inc. spreadsheet) I'm working on a similar system at the moment, however I'm weighting this 75%/25% for teams own records, because often teams such as chelsea/man u are nigh on unbeatable at home but a team with semi decent away form tends to skew the odds towards laying the top teams with little justification.