Haydock - 22/5/10

[mowgli77]

No Hubris/High Twelve 2.30 Haydock This horse may struggle off 102 in a class 2 handicap but it is the best horse in the race and may be able to prove that at a decent price. It is rated 5lb above anything else due to a recent win at Sandown where it won over 1m and showed a decent attitude when battling to the line for Jamie Spencer. I made this one to follow after the 2009 Dante meeting at York when I initially thought it looked stunning in the parade ring and saw it trot up at 7-2 after opening at around 6-1 and leaving it alone due to the odds. It tried to match strides with Canford Cliffs next time out and apparently was injured until recently. It seemed in good health last time out and will have no doubt also come on for that run. It also fits the bill for those of you that like to follow trends (Bowles, JTW, Ginge ;)) as follows (taken from Weekender): 8/10 winners finished in top 4 in previous race Horse needs decent recent form, looking for late developing contenders, not over raced as youngsters. 7/11 winners were rated at least 90 I noticed the high ratings when going through previous winners, the race often throws up listed/group winners and I think No Hubris could be that type of horse No Hubris and High Twelve make the Weekender short list but they also opt for No Hubris. I expected odds of around 5-1/6-1 and 10-1 is currently available with Ladbrokes/Stan James so I'll opt for that now as both go best odds guaranteed with a saver on High Twelve. That one has been highly tried in group company and now drops to handicap company, great jockey on board in Buick and I like Gosden as a trainer. Suggested Bet: 10pts WIN - No Hubris 10-1 Ladbrokes BOG 5pts WIN - High Twelve 14-1 Bet365 BOG

[StuSimmy]

Re: Haydock - 22/5/10 14:30 Haydock This is probably one of the tightest contests of the day and with many having strong claims, it is definately a tough race to crack. Firstly Andrew Balding's Balducci should hold very strong claims in this race as he is still very lightly raced with only 4 runs to date so more improvement can be expected from him. He was upped back in trip to a mile LTO, he finished 2nd that day and although he was 2 lengths behind the winner Oasis Dancer, that horse does go on to run in the Group 1 2,000 Guineas at the Curragh tomorrow. I do feel Balducci is better at 7 furlongs having won over that trip in his only win to date which was also his only run over 7 furlongs but pedigree suggests the trip should suit and has been placed/ran on well in all races to date over both trips. Place claims at the very least. It really is hard to pick one out here so my other selection is going to lie with Unshakable Will who is upped in trip for the first time today. He is also lightly raced with only 6 runs to date and although he is upped in class today I do feel the extra furlong may bring out some more improvement in the horse. His only win to date came in a maiden race at Ayr over 7 furlongs in good ground. Has placed off marks of 77 and 81 since on GD and GF ground with a poor effort sandwiched in between but I feel he didn't like the ground that day. His seasonal reappearance was quite encouraging for me having travelled well but meeting some trouble in running before staying on well again. Only a 1lb rise for that effort which is fair but Declan Cannon takes over today and he takes off a vital 5lbs and is more than capable of riding a winner here. Interestingly this is his only ride at the meeting. 0.7pts E/W Balducci @ 5/1 (Paddy Power - BOG ) 0.3pts E/W Unshakable Will @ 14/1 (Paddy Power - BOG) 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4 for this race