Paper testing Tennis Market trading

[xchangeDollarz]

hey guys, i think ive got a great strategy for tennis trading. A little bit of background, i played elite tennis as a junior, reaching the 260 in the world under 18's so i assume i have a great grasp on tennis matches. Usually i will just outright pick a winner of games. But i been looking to trade in other sports so i was sitting here now, watching Li vs Dulgheru and started trading by paper... Being from Australia, i cant do in-play betting. Unless anyone knows how to get around that. Anyway, this is what i did earlier. the score was tied at 3-3. Dulgheru took an early advantage in the service game. I layed Li at 1.85. Dulgheru broke serve and Li drifted to 1.94 at which stage i wouldve backed to green up :gimme 2.8 % profit. Li broke straight back, but played a tough next game. Which Dulgheru broke again to take a 5-4 lead, serving for the set. Dulgheru won the first point of the service game. At this stage i would back her at 1.79... she went on to take a 40-0 lead and dropped to 1.71. She than won the service game and dropped further too 1.32 which i show you here. And as you can see, 2,000,000+ matched on the market, so plenty of opportunities. So using this strategy i would have easily greened up TWICE in 1 set. Too bad i cannot place in-play bets in Australia :@ I will probably continue to give out advice and tips regarding this. If anyone is interested. So thanks to KMA ect for helping me look outside the square on the exchange part of things. I now know why this can be so profitable, with the right entering point, tools and methods. Anyone got any input to add, all welcome.

[kmabet]

Re: Paper testing Tennis Market trading

So thanks to KMA ect for helping me look outside the square on the exchange part of things. I now know why this can be so profitable, with the right entering point, tools and methods. Anyone got any input to add, all welcome.

You are welcome xchange! I would offer advice but until you are actually trading with real coin, it is pretty much worthless. Just be aware of the volatility on the tennis markets. It is great if things go your way with 10, 20, 30 and 40 tick swings etc... However, these points can just as easily go against you and you lose faster than you win. I make a good amount from laying the favourite at short prices for big stakes. Just been hammered on the Sharapova game though. She was continually rubbing her eye at end of first set. The Russian players and the Eastern Europeans (Djokovic used to be the king) are known to play out the first set and then retire. This way all bets stand on betfair. I see her looking uncomfortable and lay her at 1.17. She wins next 4 games and down to 1.02. I'm red £17 on Sharapova and £100 green on Georges. I quickly switch sides and put green on Sharapova. She loses her receive game and goes break point against her serve. At this point, I'm looking at £32 red hedged so I close liability on Georges which leaves me £4 red hedged overall. Sharapova wins the match and I'm just sitting looking at the screen. Why I didn't keep Sharapova open I'll never know as she was obviously going to win but that's gambling and not trading. So my advice in a long winded way is get your exits sorted and stick to them ALWAYS or you will lose more than you win. Off to trade Berdych Vs Isner now if you've got any tips? I am a cynic by nature but it is a good racket (Pardon the pun) if you know a player is going to retire after the first set.

[Datapunter]

Re: Paper testing Tennis Market trading What exactly are you testing here ? You are testing your own personal intuition in the spur of the moment. Testing means you have a pre-defined strategy: If situation X happens i take action A if followed by situation Y the action is B or if followed by situation Z the action is C write that down before the match starts then stick to what you've defined and then see what the result is. That is testing. What you do here is nothing more than watching a tennis match and flipping a coin. Your action is 100% personal and instinctive. Nice if you can make it work but probably the hardest of strategies to make work and maintain over time. Advice you watch the movie 2 for the money , (seriously).

[xchangeDollarz]

Re: Paper testing Tennis Market trading Thanks KMA, unfortunately i cant trade real yet. Apparently its a federal offence to place in-play bets. I have to phone in :sad So looks like i go live in the UK now lol :loon

What exactly are you testing here ? You are testing your own personal intuition in the spur of the moment. Testing means you have a pre-defined strategy: If situation X happens i take action A if followed by situation Y the action is B or if followed by situation Z the action is C write that down before the match starts then stick to what you've defined and then see what the result is. That is testing. What you do here is nothing more than watching a tennis match and flipping a coin. Your action is 100% personal and instinctive. Nice if you can make it work but probably the hardest of strategies to make work and maintain over time. Advice you watch the movie 2 for the money , (seriously).

I do have a strategy. It consists off - jumping into the market at 0-40 15-40; laying the server. When the break happens, backing the server for the higher price and greening-up. Seems to work great in the womens. & should the server pull back to 40-40; trade out for a small loss, and wait for the next opportunity. Also, key games in sets such as 4-4 5-4 4-5, im working on strategies. These are the times when the prices fluctuate rapidly and have lots of opportunities.

Off to trade Berdych Vs Isner now if you've got any tips?

These are the type of matches where you couldve backed Berdych at the start of every service game of his, and layed him at the lower price when he holds or takes 40-0 40-15.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Paper testing Tennis Market trading

Thanks KMA, unfortunately i cant trade real yet. Apparently its a federal offence to place in-play bets. I have to phone in :sad So looks like i go live in the UK now lol :loon

I believe NZ allows in-play betting, but not 100% sure. It's very tempting at times to go there for a few months and see just how profitable trading can be, because sometimes when I sit there and watch the odds I run out of hair :loon

[sirdond]

Re: Paper testing Tennis Market trading

I do have a strategy. It consists off - jumping into the market at 0-40 15-40; laying the server. When the break happens, backing the server for the higher price and greening-up. Seems to work great in the womens. & should the server pull back to 40-40; trade out for a small loss, and wait for the next opportunity. .

im using this too its TradeSharks strategy

[xchangeDollarz]

Re: Paper testing Tennis Market trading

im using this too its TradeSharks strategy

Seems to work. Would've had another green-up Kuznetsova v Cirstea in the 1st round french.. 2nd game, Cirstea gets to 15-40 and breaks. Kuznetsova's odds rise a bit. Profit made :gimme I do believe you need the versatility, in tennis. The knowledge of the game and different entry/exit points for different situations, will make you very successsful in my opinion. Im trying to use three in my arsonal so far. Knowing the game has worked out for me so far, just watching i can figure best strategy for a trade. But only real-time trading will prove this. So hopefully we will see. Goodluck on anyone trading or taking a punt in the french the next fortnight :dude

[xchangeDollarz]

Re: Paper testing Tennis Market trading

I believe NZ allows in-play betting' date=' but not 100% sure. It's very tempting at times to go there for a few months and see just how profitable trading can be, because sometimes when I sit there and watch the odds I run out of hair :loon[/quote'] If this is true, im going up for the weekend. Or next week. I got no other commitment besides making money from the books :loon

[kmabet]

Re: Paper testing Tennis Market trading Dollarz, Try this http://www.betfairandsquare.com/ You won't have to place actual bets to test your strategies then. It just tracks the betfair price and you put virtual bets on when it suits. Not breaking any laws then are we?:nana

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Paper testing Tennis Market trading Just got off the phone and was told that if you are betting from one of the following countries Betfair will not allow an bet in-play over the internet: Australia USA Turkey France Japan China Hong Kong Thailand apparently have local laws but Betfair themselves do not legislate on their behalf. They do prohibit it from the other countries on the list though. The operator also said that accounts held by Australian residents should be able to make in play internet bets provided they are not trying to do so from one of the aforementioned banned territories. This was a UK guy that I spoke to and he did say that the Australian teams will have greater knowledge, but thought it was worth mentioning.

[Jenspm]

Re: Paper testing Tennis Market trading

Dollarz, Try this http://www.betfairandsquare.com/ You won't have to place actual bets to test your strategies then. It just tracks the betfair price and you put virtual bets on when it suits. Not breaking any laws then are we?:nana

hrm, that registration e-mail is taking forever D:

[xchangeDollarz]

Re: Paper testing Tennis Market trading Over the course of the french open i have been using betfairandsquare to simulate my trading systems... I been kinda busy so ive missed the last 4 days. But so far... i have made 47 trades. 35 of them successful. and 12 of them trading out for a loss. It has increased my bank 6 fold. I am currently sitting on 800+% of my bank with trading on a few other things too. Pretty good increase for about two weeks in my opinion :) So seems like my strategies hold up, and it can be profitable for me. I will consider flying to New Zealand for a week real soon and do this really.