THE PREAKNESS - Pimlico 15 May (US)

[stewartd14]

2nd leg of the Triple Crown. Preview taken from www.latekick.com: Will post my thoughts tomorrow Preakness 2010 It wasn't a Kentucky Derby for the ages. Calvin Borel rode the rail as usual, the others ran into trouble as usual, and there wasn't enough quality in the field to stop Borel from winning yet another Derby. No further drama, end of story. My personal fancy Ice Box could have won with a bit more luck, but he is just too much of a dead closer to be relied upon. He got the same setup as in the Florida Derby, but he didn't get the same trip and came flying all too late. Lookin At Lucky was honorable in defeat. He and Stately Victor smashed into each other after one furlong and it was game over for them. Both deserve credit for finishing 6th and 8th, as does Paddy O'Prado for clinging to third. As expected, the whole "synthetic surfaces are confounding the Derby picture" debate turned out to be a waste of time and energy. It should be crystal clear by now that horses coming from synthetic tracks have no difficulty with the dirt. In truth, they probably had less trouble with the Churchill Downs slop than many real dirt horses did. I count 4 synthetic horses in the top 6. On the other hand, there was only one pure synthetics horse in the bottom 6 (Sydney's Candy). The result of the Oaks illustrates the smooth transition from synthetics to dirt best of all. The purely synthetic exacta Blind Luck and Evening Jewel paid $58.40. On to the Preakness! As the table below clearly illustrates, the horses to watch out for are those who put up a strong performance during Derby weekend. Of the last 9 editions of the Preakness, 8 were won by a horse who came out of the Derby or Oaks. The one exception was Bernardini in 2006, the year that the fabulous Barbaro broke down at Pimlico. These results make sense. A horse that comes out of the Derby in good shape is much more seasoned than other members of its age group, is fighting fit and probably ready for a peak performance over a similar distance.

Year	Winner	SPEED in Preakness	SPEED in last race	Last race
2009	Rachel Alexandra	84	98	Kentucky Oaks (1st, 15 days earlier)
2008	Big Brown	78	93	Kentucky Derby (1st, 14 days earlier)
2007	Curlin	96	80	Kentucky Derby (3rd, 14 days earlier)
2006	Bernardini	96	95	Withers Stakes (1st, 21 days earlier)
2005	Afleet Alex	90	82	Kentucky Derby (3rd, 14 days earlier)
2004	Smarty Jones	96	90	Kentucky Derby (1st, 14 days earlier)
2003	Funny Cide	88	92	Kentucky Derby (1st, 14 days earlier)
2002	War Emblem	91	98	Kentucky Derby (1st, 14 days earlier)
2001	Point Given	94	80	Kentucky Derby (5th, 14 days earlier)

1. Aikenite (20/1) Aikenite runs his best numbers when he can sit behind a hot pace and pick up the opposition as they start to tire. He has actually tried sitting closer to the pace (Holy Bull Stakes and the Blue Grass), but on those instances he could not muster any rally. In my view, Aikenite is a typical case of a horse who will struggle to win any big races. A quick look at his Early/Middle/Late numbers reveal that he usually performs well in two of the three categories, but never in each section of the race. His late rallies come when he takes it easy early on, but his late speed is dulled by any attempt to sit a bit closer behind the leaders. Even against this below-par crop, I'd be surprised to see him in the winner's circle. 2. Schoolyard Dreams (15/1) Schoolyard Dreams has been consistent in his short career so far, without being remarkable. Except perhaps for the fact that he finished in front of Super Saver in the Tampa Bay Derby when finishing second. He comes into the race following a string of good efforts in graded races, and judging by the level of opposition in the Preakness, he must be able to run his usual race, stalking the leaders, and staying on well enough for a top 5 spot. 3. Pleasant Prince (20/1) Pleasant Prince started his career in a Maiden Claimer, but Wesley Ward was wise enough to subsequently enter him in a Maiden Specialweight which the horse duly won. He wintered in Florida, where he ran some respectable races when beaten by Eskendereya (twice) and Ice Box (twice). He flopped in the Blue Grass which effectively took him out of the Derby, despite a last try in the Derby Trial at Churchill where he reverted to running a respectable race. The upshot is that this horse has never won a race beside his maiden, and has never taken the scalp of any of the top 3 year olds. Maybe he'll run a decent race once again, but his chance of winning looks very slim. 4. Northern Giant (30/1) Nothern Giant was a late addition to the Preakness. Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, this horse had a very moderate campaign as a 2yo. His results got better as he started to stretch out and he finally got off the mark in a weak maiden race at Oaklawn Park in February. Sharply raised in class in his next outings, he ran a respectable third in the Risen Star and was runner-up in the Lane's End. Something went wrong in his last race, as he finished last without any obvious reason in the Arkansas Derby. The horse has a stalking profile, a characteristic that he shares with many of the other contenders. The horse hasn't run the numbers, and there doesn't seem to be lot of room for improvement either. 5. Yawanna Twist (30/1) Yawanna Twist hasn't run a bad race yet, running numbers within a 85-89 range, winning his first two races, and then finishing second to Awesome Act (Gotham) and American Lion (Illinois Derby). That form hasn't worked out particularly well, but the horse certainly adds more depth to this year's Preakness. At 30/1, he is one to use in your exotic bets, and even a small win bet wouldn't be the worst bet of the race. 6. Jackson Bend (12/1) Jackson Bend ran slightly disappointing in the Derby. He sat mid-pack for most of the race and finished 12th without really showing anything. In my opinion, he will struggle to win any race over further than 9F. He doesn't really fall apart, but doesn't seem to be able to produce a winning kick at the highest level. His high Dosage Index (6.20) also suggests that this is beyond his optimal distance. Maybe they should try the horse over a turf mile (sire was effective on the turf). This is a throw-out for me. 7. Lookin At Lucky (3/1) This is the classic that Lucky was always most likely to win, and I hope he will run. The horse got slammed by Stately Victor in the Derby and certainly showed a positive attitude by working his way into 6th (Victor himself ran an honourable 8th and I hope to see him in the Belmont). I think Lucky will get a much better trip this time, the field is much smaller and he won't be slamming into a wall of tiring pace horses. I still don't believe that he is that good a horse, but he is definitely a main contender. Interesting note: Gomez jumps off Lucky and will rude Dublin instead. 8. Super Saver (5/2) This must be the least appreciated Derby winner of the century. Nearly all the media attention has gone to the winning jockey Calvin Borel, so much in fact, that we might start forgetting that Super Saver delivered a super fine performance in the Derby. He was the only horse to survive the very hot pace being set. He did it in a way that he had never tried before, as a stalker rather than a pace setter. Furthermore, he did it on a very sloppy track, getting a lot of mud in the face during the first mile of the race. There is no doubt that he is one of the prime contenders for the Preakness and 5/2 is definitely a fair price. 9. Caracortado (10/1) Caracortado was the other hard luck story in the Santa Anita Derby, finishing fourth in the end. Despite this legitimate excuse and a suitable pedigree for a 9.5F dirt race, I struggle to see him as a serious contender in the Preakness. His numbers over two turns have been too weak (max of 84), and he hasn't exactly looked progressive. Perhaps he needs the dirt to be classy, but I think he is a low superfecta horse at best. 10. Paddy O'Prado (9/2) Paddy O'Prado ran a very good Derby, and confirmed that he is indeed a very useful horse. His recent form reads: one win (grade 3 on the turf), one second (grade 1 on the synthetic) and one third (grade 1 on the dirt), notching up a sequence of 88/87/80. One thing is becoming clear, however: he has distance limitations. He doesn't finish his races well enough to win a Derby. I suspect that 9.5F is just above his prefered distance, and he will need some luck. Maybe Kent Desormeaux should just try to take the lead and hope he gets away with it. 9/2 can hardly be described as a generous price, however. One for the exotics. 11. First Dude (20/1) First Dude has been a relatively late developer, only breaking his maiden in January. Connections wanted to run him in the Derby but he came up short in earnings - not surprising since he hasn't won a race apart from his maiden. He has been respectable in defeat, however. He lost in a first-level allowance race (Gulfstream) against Fly Down, winner of the Dwyer Stakes last Saturday. He was then immediately stepped up to the highest level in the Florida Derby. He finished only fifth, but that wasn't such a bad effort, given that nearly all horses who went the pace finished behind him. He ran a similar race in the Blue Grass, again stalking a hot pace, and staying on well to hold third and running a career high of 86. The horse was obviously rushed a bit in order to catch up with the more precocious 3 yo's, but hopefully the rest will have done him some good and he is ready to run a nice race. The horse will definitely win some nice races this year. 12. Dublin (10/1) Either Dublin doesn't like "My Old Kentucky Home" or he has very frail nerves, because he was very unsettled during the mass rendition of it. We know the answer of course, Dublin is a very talented horse, but what he is mainly lacking is a cool head. Despite being affected by the circumstances, he managed to run a respectable 7th which confirmed the improvement that he had been showing at Oaklawn. This does not turn him into a contender (he has been beaten by Super Saver twice in a row now), but he will definitely feature on some of my trifecta and superfecta tickets. He's a good horse who might be sitting on a very good effort. The wide draw is a small negative.

[Trendsman]

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