Instant Handicapping

[RussP]

Going on from Kithanga's thread, I'm interested in the way he methodically goes about his selections and allocate points for each element of important criteria. So I'm interested in your views on 2 areas of flat handicapping: a) of the 11 considerations I list below, allocate points on a scale of 1-5, with 5 being the most important. Obviously, you can give each consideration 5 or even all of them 1 but just interested in which rank higher than others b) any considerations you think have been missed Considerations:

• Class of race
• Course
• Current form
• Distance
• Draw
• Fitness
• Going
• Handicap mark
• Jockey booking
• Scope for improvement
• Trainer form

Remember, not all the considerations will be relevant to each handicap. For example, scope for improvement is less relevant in a race of exposed handicappers. :ok

[DM99]

Re: Instant Handicapping OK, I will rank these in general order of what I generally use to pick horses to oppose, most important at the top: Going Distance Look at going and distance first up. A horse may have won last time under totally different going/distance and still be favourite. Scope for improvement If the horse is young (3-4yo) you have figure out if it is likely to improve enough to win. Fitness It is always easier to find a true measure of ability if the horse has run recently Class of race Easier to pick horses in low-grade events, high class race form is studied to death and provides less value and horses tend to be much closer together in ability Draw Draw bias shifts around a bit, and the obvious draw bias is already factored into the odds Handicap mark A quality horse, one who returns to favoured going/distance or one on the upgrade will be able to defy his mark Current form Horses are mostly priced up on recent form Course Apart from course specialists and unique courses (eg Southwell AW) do not use that often Jockey booking Trainer form Don't bother following these stats: most horses are partially priced up according to the name value anyway, both trainers and jockeys go into and out of form all the time Hard to assign numerical values to any of them: 4.5/5 for distance and going down to 0.5/5 for trainer and jockey form.