Key race - The Derby

[fintron]

Re: Key race - The Derby I'm disappointed with this years field to be honest. Looking through, there isnt that much to really get exicted about.. St Nick no longer goes for the race, there were questions over Cape Blanco's well being in the aftermath of the Dante, and the fact he is 28.0 on Betfair suggests he is set to go to France? Jan Vermeer is 2/1 despite beating nothing of note, and Workforce's price has collapsed based on hype and talk of his acheivements at home. Only three caught my eye really, but Ted Spread may lack the class to win and I would have liked to have seen more convincing form from earlier in his career. Bullet Train made some appeal but he is only 7/1 and with questions over his class, Im passing over. Now REWILDING has been supplemented, he gets my money. Another horse that beat little at Goodwood, but he beat what was put infront of him well and I'd rather take 10/1 about him than 2/1 for Jan Vermeer. He is a half-brother to the classy Dar Re Mi, a triple Grp 1 winner, and showed at Goodwood that he handles Undulations. When looking for a Derby winner I dont like to see them ever finish out of the first two, possibly first three, as I think you need to be high class to win this, and high class horses, even if they dont get things their own way, are never far away even in defeat. Frankie takes the ride and with Tote offering NRNB, that's my only bet in the race. 10/1 EW

[jtw1]

Re: Key race - The Derby Taken from the COOLMORE website - Ballydoyle News - 02/06/2010 BALLYDOYLE RIDING ARRANGEMENTS Epsom – Friday Coronation Cup Fame And Glory – Johnny Murtagh Dixie Music – Seamus Heffernan Oaks Cabaret – Colm O’Donoghue Awe Inspiring – Seamus Heffernan Remember When – Johnny Murtagh ********* Epsom – Saturday Derby Midas Touch – Colm O’Donoghue At First Sight – Seamus Heffernan Jan Vermeer – Johnny Murtagh ********* Chantilly – Sunday Prix du Jockey Club Cape Blanco – Johnny Murtagh Viscount Nelson – Colm O’Donoghue

[fintron]

Re: Key race - The Derby I've drawn up some profiles for recent winners, and tried to match them to this years field to identify any possible value against the cramped-odds-fav. 2009 winner: Sea The Stars Career runs: 4 (form 4111) Runs at 3: 1 Distance of wins: 7f-8f-8f Grade of wins: 2yo-Grp 2-Grp 1 (2,000 Guineas)

2008 winner: New Approach Career runs: 7 (form 1111122) Runs at 3: 2 Distance of wins: 7f-7f-7f-7f-7f Grade of wins: 2yo-Grp 3-Grp 2 –Grp 1–Grp 1 (Dewhurst)

2007 winner: Authorized Career runs: 3 (form 311) Runs at 3: 1 Distance of wins: 8f-10f Grade of wins: Grp1 (RP Trophy)- Grp 2 (Dante)

2006 winner: Sir Percy Career runs: 5 (form 11112) Runs at 3: 1 Distance of wins: 6f-6f-7f-7f Grade of wins: maiden-maiden-Grp2-Grp1 (Dewhurst)

2005 winner: Motivator Career runs: 3 (form 111) Runs at 3: 1 Distance of wins: 8f-8f-10f Grade of wins: maiden-Grp 1 (RP Trophy)-Grp 2 (Dante)

So it appears we need to be looking for a horse with a ‘clean’ profile – one that is rarely out of the frame on all previous starts.

Al Zir was caned in the Guineas, At First Sight has unplaced twice in a short career of 4 runs. Bright Horizon is yet to race at listed level or above and has also been unplaced twice, Azmeel bombed out in the Goffs Million mile. Buzzword was another well held in the Guineas, Coordinated Cut has been well held in two key trials, the RP Trophy and Dante. Hot Prospect is yet to win outside of Group company and unplaced twice even at modest level. St Nicholas Abbey is a non-runner and chopping all of those leaves a longlist of seven.

Ted Spread has only had one run at three, winning the Chester Vase and I can possibly look beyond a modest effort on debut, but I have the niggly suspicion he had the run of the race on the Roodee and is up against it at this trip in this company. CapeBlanco has the ideal profile as the unbeaten Dante winner, but his odds on the exchanges mark him down as a doubtful participant. Workforce is lightly raced, perhaps too much so, and was well beaten in the Dante. His price reflects the hype emanating from the Stoute yard, and at single figure odds he no longer interest me with no winning form outside of a maiden. Midas Touch was well held behind Jan Vermeer at Saint-Cloud in November when unplaced and has work to do to reverse the placings. That leaves us with a final shortlist of just the three Classic-winning possibles:

Bullet Train Runs to date: 3 (form 121) Runs at 3: 2 Distance of wins: 8f-11f Grade of wins: maiden-Grp 3

Jan Vermeer Runs to date: 4 (form 4111) Runs at 3: 1 Distance of wins: 8f-8f Grade of wins: 2yo-Grp 1-Grp 3

Rewilding Runs to date: 4 (form 2121) Runs at 3: 2 Distance of wins: 8f-11f Grade of wins: 2yo-listed

Searching for the value In terms of form Jan Vermeer holds the strongest form off the back of his Group 1 win in the Criterium International at Saint-Cloud. He beat a listed level winner by 4 lengths (unraced since), the 3rd has since finished 4th in the French 1,000 Guineas and the 4th (Midas Touch) has since won the Derrinstown Stud trial at Leop. The 5th, Prizefighting, beaten 7.25 lengths, has since finished runner up to Rewilding (btn 4l) so there is a bit of a formline to pick at there. Bullet Train hasn’t really beaten much of note, the field he mullered at Lingfield are 100-rated horses in all fairness, and with the suspicion he had the run of the race, his class is taken into question. The question that perhaps remains to be answered in my mind is how much more likely is Jan Vermeer to win the race than Rewilding? The odds (yesterday when striking the bets) suggest Rewilding is five times less likely to win the race than Jan Vermeer. I can't be having that! The formline through Prizefighting suggests Jan has several lengths in hand but such formlines cannot be interpreted so literally, firstly, because these are 3 yo colts, open to masses of improvement, and secondly, because Prizefighting was inconvenienced by the inadequate trip when behind Jan Vermeer that day in France. Its all a matter of personal opinion, and admitedly, Jan Vermeer is the one with Group wins already in the book, but if he is 2/1 I'd say REWILDING deserves to be no bigger than 5/1, so with 10/1 on offer yesterday, he is my bet.

[TheRat]

Re: Key race - The Derby We were discussing the race at work today and in the Derby class does nearly always shine through and you don't get many shocks. At this point there isn't too much value though I had an anti post angle on Bullet Train and Cape Blanco and I am leaving it with BT but wish I had some on a longer price Jan Vermeer. Will be an interesting race but I can't see any stand outs at all now

[fintron]

Re: Key race - The Derby

We were discussing the race at work today and in the Derby class does nearly always shine through and you don't get many shocks. At this point there isn't too much value though I had an anti post angle on Bullet Train and Cape Blanco and I am leaving it with BT but wish I had some on a longer price Jan Vermeer. Will be an interesting race but I can't see any stand outs at all now

I agree, I dunno If my memory is letting me down but in years gone by I seem to remember really looking forward to the race as there were several lively contenders, this year only Jan Vermeer probably has the winning form at Grp 2 and Grp 1 level that you expect from a class horse. I suppose the next question is that of whether taking 2/1 for him can be justified......

[Gingertipster]

Re: Key race - The Derby I think at some point you'll get better than 2/1 Jan Vermeer, suspect even 5/2 will be available. Got him at 7's but he's poor value now. My other bet Workforce is no value now either. Agree with those who've put up Rewilding as the value to be had right now. Had I not got two free bets on the former two, would've been reccommending Rewilding.

[jtw1]

Re: Key race - The Derby Taken from Sporting Life site - Sir Michael Stoute has admitted he would have preferred to have been able to give Workforce more experience ahead of the Investec Derby on Saturday. The Dante Stakes runner-up, who has just two starts under his belt, is among a field of 12 declared for the blue riband Classic at Epsom. "I'm just disappointed we didn't get two races into him. That was the original plan but in the spring he had a dirty scope and he wasn't really thriving with the weather we were having," the Newmarket trainer told At The Races. "He's a bit short on experience. He only had one race at two - a maiden - and then the Dante which was unsatisfactory really. At Epsom they have to be sharp mentally, they have to go for the openings when they are available, but the good thing is there are only 12 runners and not 24. That's a help. "I took him to Lingfield for him to accelerate down the hill on a left-handed turn as he got the bit through his mouth at York. I think that was a one-off, we will be able to eliminate that sort of thing. "He has sharpened up from his Dante race as one would expect. We are running him because we feel he is entitled to go there. He has a chance, I couldn't say I'm confident because he lacks that additional race I would have liked him to have had. He'll stay and I hope the ground isn't too quick."

[kopite19]

Re: Key race - The Derby As stated earlier its all about one horse 'workforce' and the 14/1 eachway could look very good come 10 past 4 tomo afternoon,if verdant wins the first i think he will go off fav,come on ryan steer them home

[EB1]

Re: Key race - The Derby 10 of 10 winners by a sire with a stamina index of 8.6+ 10 of 10 winners were born before 7th April 10 of 10 winners had run 1 or 2 times that season 10 of 10 winners finished in the first 2 on all starts that season 10 of 10 winners achieved an RPR of 115+ last time out

10 of 10 winners RPR at 3 of 118+ 10 of 10 winners ran in the last 35 days 10 of 10 winners had won a group race 10 of 10 winners had won at the highest grade they'd run in 10 of 10 winners had won over 7F+ as a 2yo 10 of 10 winners came from the first 4 in the betting Selection: JAN VERMEER EW MIDAS TOUCH

[kopite19]

Re: Key race - The Derby hes the statman . . skida skida skida bop bop bop bop

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Key race - The Derby

As stated earlier its all about one horse 'workforce' and the 14/1 eachway could look very good come 10 past 4 tomo afternoon' date='if verdant wins the first i think he will go off fav,come on ryan steer them home[/quote'] Best of luck am on large portion aswell, i hope stoute and moore can make it a good day.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Key race - The Derby My 100% book Jan Vermeer 31% 9/4, Workforce 17% 5/1, Rewilding 16% 11/2, Midas Touch 10.5% 17/2, Bullit Train 8.5% 11/1, Azmeel 5.25% 18/1, Coordinated Cut 5% 20/1, Al Zir 2.25% 40/1, Buzzword 2% 50/1, Ted Spread 2% 50/1, At First Sight 0.25% 400/1, Hot Prospect 0.25% 400/1. Though I won't go in again myself, Jan Vermeer and Rewilding look the best value now. Jan Vermeer available @ 11/4, Workforce @ 11/2, Rewilding @ 7/1 and Buzzword 66/1.

[jtw1]

Re: Key race - The Derby Racing Post site - Dettori mount Rewilding popular in Derby market By James Burn 9:02AM 5 JUN 2010 GODOLPHIN'S Rewilding is the main mover in theInvestec Derby market and bookmakers Paddy Power believe the presence of jockey Frankie Dettori could see a similar gamble to the one which saw Don't Push It being backed into 10-1 joint-favourite for the John Smith's Grand National. The Tiger Hill colt, tipped by Pricewise in Saturday's Racing Post, began his Classic campaign in France with Andre Fabre and earned his place at Epsom by winning the Bluesquare.com Cocked Hat Stakes at Goodwood on his first start for new trainer Mahmood Al Zarooni. He was then supplemented by connections for £75,000 and that could prove money well spent if the Derby market moves prove correct. Paddy Power have cut him to 6-1 (from 13-2) and a firm spokesman said on Saturday morning: "In the same way that once-a-year punters slammed into Don't Push It in the Grand National because Tony McCoy was riding, the Frankie factor could come into play. "Those busy housewives may not have heard of Jamie Spencer, but they sure as hell know who Frankie is! "At this stage he looks like being the big gamble on the day." Elsewhere Rewilding is 5-1 (from 6) with Stan James, while Totesportare 5-1 and Victor Chandler 11-2 (both from 13-2). Boyelsports, one of the firmsto offer 7-1 about Rewilding on Saturday morning, are now 5-1.

[fintron]

Re: Key race - The Derby i like that move jtw! Just had a semi saver on jan vermeer at 3s as he has drifted the other way with the money for frankie driving rewilding in.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Key race - The Derby There are rumours going around of Jan Vermeer's foot in an ice bucket. The reason why he ran in a late trial was a stone bruise, so does have a history of foot problems. But with Ladbrokes (Mike Dillon is close to the yard) still shorter than other bookmakers it's probably the betfair forum at it's worst. Did not know whether to say about this or not, because I think it's xxxx.

[Trotter]

Re: Key race - The Derby I've just had a little EW on Hot Prospect at 66/1 I think he'll reverse the Ling Derby trial form with Bullet Train and if he finishes ahead of Bullet Train, he could well be in the places........

[mowgli77]

Re: Key race - The Derby Has anyone mentioned Azmeel yet? Its bare form suggests it isn't good enough as it only has form at Group 3 level but it pulled away from the others along with Chabal at Sandown. That one has let the form down since in the Dante and Bikini Babe has not done much for the form since either. It won over 10f last time out on gd-sft but has a win on gd-fm over 7f. Will get the trip, is out of Azamour (10.3f) and Best Side and has shown a turn of foot in the past at both Sandown and Newbury. I think it has more chance of placing than winning but it would also be good to see young Buick winning a Derby and it is not without hope that he may do just that today. Currently 12-1 with most bookies and I'm going to back it now but on Betfair. I am currently on Workforce (main bet), with savers on Coordinated Cut (32.0), Al Zir (44.0) and now Azmeel (just taken 14.5).

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Key race - The Derby Its great when a plan comes off, and once again the sun has got his hat on. What a ride, what a horse, what a trainer, what a Derby.

[kopite19]

Re: Key race - The Derby OH YESSSSS I TOLD YOU ALL FIRST READ THE THREAD..WHOOOOOOOOSH COURSE RECORD AND 14/1 HAHA

[rob777vdy]

Re: Key race - The Derby

OH YESSSSS I TOLD YOU ALL FIRST READ THE THREAD..WHOOOOOOOOSH COURSE RECORD AND 14/1 HAHA

well done boss.i put up workforce elsewhere and mentioned bullet train.i did em in a reversed forcast 1st n last :(

[jtw1]

Re: Key race - The Derby

OH YESSSSS I TOLD YOU ALL FIRST READ THE THREAD..WHOOOOOOOOSH COURSE RECORD AND 14/1 HAHA

Fair play Kopite :ok ceratainly stayed the 12f alll right and how !!!!

[Stevet1859]

Re: Key race - The Derby Great stuff Kopite :clap - just read your 6th May post. Lars too and Ginge said Workforce value. You really sung his praises Kopite ...... cracking selection.

[kopite19]

Re: Key race - The Derby Thanks lads,sorry for over reacting with the CAPS just on cloud 9 at the moment,well done to all who backed him

[jtw1]

Re: Key race - The Derby

Thanks lads' date='sorry for over reacting with the CAPS just on cloud 9 at the moment,well done to all who backed him[/quote'] No need to apologise mate , soak it up !!!

[Gingertipster]

Re: Key race - The Derby

Thanks lads' date='sorry for over reacting with the CAPS just on cloud 9 at the moment,well done to all who backed him[/quote'] Could not understand them Kopite. They really should know.... NO Workforce, NO Profit! :cow

[jtw1]

Re: Key race - The Derby Johnny Cash says it all to you Ginge :ok

[Gingertipster]

Re: Key race - The Derby

Johnny Cash says it all to you Ginge :ok

No Jtw, not Johnny Cash at all. Redskins "Kick Over The Statues"

[Blair Boy]

Re: Key race - The Derby Just been having a think about the pacemaker, had the horse not played that role in the race being left with more fuel in the closing stages as he wouldn't have used it up with a fierce run at the start, could he have had more of a chance of winning or would Workforce still have won?

[Gingertipster]

Re: Key race - The Derby I don't think he went off too fast. Excellant judgement of pace by Seamus.

[mowgli77]

Re: Key race - The Derby I backed Workforce but only managed to get 7.8 on Betfair. I went on Betfair Mobile about two weeks ago to back both Workforce and Bullet Train and at that time Workforce was 14-1 (15.0) but betting had been suspended for no apparent reason so I couldn't get on. I text Fintron and he checked Betfair site and said it was suspended on there. I left the bet and waited to see if it was going to be a non runner due to that spin it had around Lingfield and totally missed the price as the O'Brien horses kept dropping out. I was trying to play safe as I'd already backed Chabal ante post and it didn't even get there. What do you think the chances are of Workforce now going on to win the Irish Derby and the Arc De Triomphe? I checked Arc odds about half hour after the race yesterday and Workforce was 5.5.