Box3r Posted April 19, 2010 Share Posted April 19, 2010 Re: Dutching score system too bad for liverpool.. it was good potential profit. keep it up leftism Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leftism Posted April 19, 2010 Author Share Posted April 19, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box3r Posted April 20, 2010 Share Posted April 20, 2010 Re: Dutching score system Loss recovery system is a basic martingale approach with a factor of 2 (divided up on next weeks games). Again it seemed to work well backtesting but maybe there is a better way??? Can you tell me more about this? We all know that martingale is bad cause it is at least for me a catch 22 (it can only lead to a bigger problems or loss) :) I know for money management plan where you spread your loss between few bets. (It is from a staking machine program). Do you use something like that or? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leftism Posted April 20, 2010 Author Share Posted April 20, 2010 Re: Dutching score system Its true that a martingale system will eventually lead to more problems. I'm currently toying around with some variations of the system or applying a different loss recovery mechanism. My hypothesis for doing this is that with strike rates averaging 75% or more over multiple seasons in multiple leagues, some form of loss recovery should be successful in the long term. In all the backtesting i've done, the most severe loss recovery i reached still only represented a 15% stake of total bankroll. The truth is that this is one of the areas where my system needs a lot of refining. I am going to toy around with several loss recovery plans and see what is most appropriate. For the moment i will double the losses from the Liverpool game, and divide this up amongst the games for this weekend. Any help with a more appropriate loss recovry plan would be appreciated... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box3r Posted April 20, 2010 Share Posted April 20, 2010 Re: Dutching score system Can you tell me what is your strike rate depending on price? Is 1.8 best to score? Maybe you could somehow try to develop similar staking plan as maria's staking plan? You can see it here http://expertbettingadvice.co.uk/forum/thread18432.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leftism Posted April 20, 2010 Author Share Posted April 20, 2010 Re: Dutching score system Thats a great idea! I was thinking along those lines before but haven't put any stats together for it other than mean +/- standard deviation which doesn't give us much to work with. I'm gonna work on my data and try come up with 4 odds bands, with strike rates for each band. Then we might be able to come up with a staking system which will maximise profits/ minimise losses. An extension of this would be that we can be more selective about our loss recovery system. Place the loss recovery stakes on the odds band with the best strike rate etc. Thanks for the ideas Box3r! Hopefully if we keep knockin heads together we might come up with a more functional system. How is the laying going for you? I'll email you over my calculation spreadsheet if you want... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattjadams Posted April 20, 2010 Share Posted April 20, 2010 Re: Dutching score system Hi, Im a first time poster and amateur better, i am not sure if i understand this correctly. I am going to use a match tonight as an example. Southampton vs Oldham 1) Lay Odds for Southampton are 1.4 2) I place that as a single bet (i.e i am saying Saints will lose) 3) I then back 3 single bets for: 1-0 @ 8.2 2-0 @ 7 2-1 @ 10 (i.e southampton will win in all of these bets) I think that is what your system is. If not correct me.... Please bear with me as i dont really understand this but these are the questions i have: Lets say I have a total of €22 to bet. In effect i am placing 4 bets (1 lay - 3 CS) correct? I am not sure how to split this €22 euros STEP 1) I place a stake of €10 on the lay bet. Southampton win so i lose €4 from that €10 - i.e i will be left with €6 from the stake of €10. However if oldham win I would get €14 from that €10 STEP 2) With the other €12 i place 3 bets of €4 on correct scores. 1-0 i stand to win €28.80 2-0 i stand to win €24 2-1 i stand to win €36 If none of these come in i.e southampton win 3-0 i lose correct...? So lets say the result is 2-0 southampton in effect i make a profit: €24 euros won - €4 from the lay bet. so i profit of €20. correct? If however it is 3-0 i lose the €12 euros stake on the CS and €4 from the lay bet so effectively i lose €16 If Oldham win or is a draw i make a loss because i would have spent €12 on the CS + €10 on the lay bet but would only get back €14 (because i won the lay bet) In effect i hoping for one of the CS to come in to make a profit... is that correct? I am not sure how to work out how much stake I put on what. You mentioned a spreadsheet but i am not sure how that helps. Do i only but it on 1-0, 2-0 and 2-1... for every match or do i change the scores depending on the match? Sorry if this is confusing for you - any help would be appreciated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box3r Posted April 20, 2010 Share Posted April 20, 2010 Re: Dutching score system Thats a great idea! I was thinking along those lines before but haven't put any stats together for it other than mean +/- standard deviation which doesn't give us much to work with. I'm gonna work on my data and try come up with 4 odds bands, with strike rates for each band. Then we might be able to come up with a staking system which will maximise profits/ minimise losses. An extension of this would be that we can be more selective about our loss recovery system. Place the loss recovery stakes on the odds band with the best strike rate etc. Thanks for the ideas Box3r! Hopefully if we keep knockin heads together we might come up with a more functional system. How is the laying going for you? I'll email you over my calculation spreadsheet if you want... No problem. I also love to try out new systems and ideas. Maybe if you can work this one out then you might not even be in the need to a loss recovery plan. As for the spreadsheet on to an email I learned that it is better to post in on the forum so everyone can see it. But if you aren't able to post it here then we can work something out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leftism Posted April 20, 2010 Author Share Posted April 20, 2010 Re: Dutching score system ok i've just finished writing a programme to analyse odds ranges with this system. I've broken our odds range into 4 bands of equal size. Band1 is lowest quarter. Band4 is highest quarter Analysed English Premiership 2009: Total odds range: 1.4 - 2.0 Strike rate: 75.6% Band1 range: 1.4 -1.55 Strike rate: 72.5% Band2 range: 1.56-1.7 Strike rate: 76.3% Band3 range: 1.7-1.85 Strike rate: 76.3% Band4 range: 1.86-2.0 Strike rate: 81.3% I will run this over multiple seasons and multiple leagues. How we use that info remains to be seen but its definitely progress! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leftism Posted April 20, 2010 Author Share Posted April 20, 2010 Re: Dutching score system Hi, Im a first time poster and amateur better, i am not sure if i understand this correctly. I am going to use a match tonight as an example. Southampton vs Oldham 1) Lay Odds for Southampton are 1.4 2) I place that as a single bet (i.e i am saying Saints will lose) 3) I then back 3 single bets for: 1-0 @ 8.2 2-0 @ 7 2-1 @ 10 (i.e southampton will win in all of these bets) I think that is what your system is. If not correct me.... Please bear with me as i dont really understand this but these are the questions i have: Lets say I have a total of €22 to bet. In effect i am placing 4 bets (1 lay - 3 CS) correct? I am not sure how to split this €22 euros STEP 1) I place a stake of €10 on the lay bet. Southampton win so i lose €4 from that €10 - i.e i will be left with €6 from the stake of €10. However if oldham win I would get €14 from that €10 STEP 2) With the other €12 i place 3 bets of €4 on correct scores. 1-0 i stand to win €28.80 2-0 i stand to win €24 2-1 i stand to win €36 If none of these come in i.e southampton win 3-0 i lose correct...? So lets say the result is 2-0 southampton in effect i make a profit: €24 euros won - €4 from the lay bet. so i profit of €20. correct? If however it is 3-0 i lose the €12 euros stake on the CS and €4 from the lay bet so effectively i lose €16 If Oldham win or is a draw i make a loss because i would have spent €12 on the CS + €10 on the lay bet but would only get back €14 (because i won the lay bet) In effect i hoping for one of the CS to come in to make a profit... is that correct? I am not sure how to work out how much stake I put on what. You mentioned a spreadsheet but i am not sure how that helps. Do i only but it on 1-0, 2-0 and 2-1... for every match or do i change the scores depending on the match? Sorry if this is confusing for you - any help would be appreciated. Ok so for this game (at the odds you quoted) i would do this: 1)Place a 20 euro lay on Southampton (@ 1.4) 2)Place a 3.40 euro bet on 1-0 Place a 4 euro bet on 2-0 Place a 2.80 euro bet on 2-1 As long as southampton dont score more than 2 goals and win you will take in a profit of 9.78 euro. So if they win with a score of 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1, you win 9.78. If they lose, you win 9.78. If they draw, you win 9.78 Total liability on this game would be 18.21. So if Southampton score more than 2 goals and win, you lose 18.21 euros. Yield is 51% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box3r Posted April 20, 2010 Share Posted April 20, 2010 Re: Dutching score system Where did you get past odds? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimaldo Posted April 20, 2010 Share Posted April 20, 2010 Re: Dutching score system football-data Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattjadams Posted April 21, 2010 Share Posted April 21, 2010 Re: Dutching score system Could you send me the spreadsheet? Ive tried to work out how you come to the amount you stake on the lay bet and the CS bets but i cant for the life of me work it out. I now understand how your system works, i just dont know how much to stake on each thing.... Thanks Matt Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrrrrrry Posted April 22, 2010 Share Posted April 22, 2010 Re: Dutching score system Hi I'm pretty new to this whole betfair stuff and have managed in the last month to go from a £100 starting pot to £400 laying off random bets and am now thinking I should be trying out some sort of strategy with my pot. I like the look of your system and gave it a try on the Bayern game last night as I thought that they would not score 3 or more goals. I used the dutching tool here: http://www.oddschecker.com/betting-tools/dutching-calculator.html with £20 in total on the event. From betfair it says: £12.50 on bayern not to win @ 1.71 = lost £8.88 £2.75 on 1-0 to bayern @ 7.8 = won £18.63 £2.49 on 2-0 to bayern @ 8.6 = lost £2.49 £2.27 on 2-1 to bayern @ 9.4 = lost £2.27 So after commission makes me £4.30 profit (£18.63 minus £2.49 minus £2.27 less 4.97% commission minus £8.88) The thing that is confusing me using the oddschecker calculator with those figures it tells me the profit should be £1.38 and yet I made £4.30 can somebody explain this to me please. Thankyou! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arkantos Posted April 22, 2010 Share Posted April 22, 2010 Re: Dutching score system You bet £12.50 on Bayern not to win, but in your calculations you've put £8.88 :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAW Posted April 22, 2010 Share Posted April 22, 2010 Re: Dutching score system You got your stakes all wrong, you actually only risked £16.39 and you underlaid bayern Laying bayern is the equivalent of backing them not to win, but at the inverse price. So you should've put 2.41 into the calculator to give the amount to stake on the lay (your liability) Divide that by 0.71 to give the backer's stake Doing it all in one hit in a dutching calculator kind of works, but fails to take into account commission so your profit will vary slightly depending on which market the winnings come from If you'd staked it right you would've made about 6 quid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrrrrrry Posted April 22, 2010 Share Posted April 22, 2010 Re: Dutching score system Thankyou thats why then! So just to confirm what you are saying when working out the backers stake next time on a game, if for instance they were on betfair to lay at 1.64, I would do 1.64 divided by 0.64 which is 2.56 and then put that into the calculator? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattjadams Posted April 22, 2010 Share Posted April 22, 2010 Re: Dutching score system Is there any scope for adding an over 3.5 goals in to the dutching? Surely by doing that you protect yourself against and sort of large win but could also act as a bonus if the match is 2-2 or 2-3.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAW Posted April 22, 2010 Share Posted April 22, 2010 Re: Dutching score system Thankyou thats why then! So just to confirm what you are saying when working out the backers stake next time on a game, if for instance they were on betfair to lay at 1.64, I would do 1.64 divided by 0.64 which is 2.56 and then put that into the calculator? i think you've got it, harrrrrrrrrry :) divide 1.64 by 0.64 to give the odds to put into the calculator the stake output by the calculator tells you what your LIABILITY should be divide that by 0.64 to give the backers stake alternatively, ask the OP for a copy of his spreadsheet :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrrrrrry Posted April 22, 2010 Share Posted April 22, 2010 Re: Dutching score system Ok good I'm getting my head round it and can now work it out using the calculator and get to the same figures as I should do, however applying the system to tonights game between Athletico and Liverpool in which I cannot see Athletico scoring 3 or more goals their lay odds are 2.54 So does that mean I do 2.54 divided by 0.54 then? Sorry just the number not being 1.something is confusing me! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box3r Posted April 22, 2010 Share Posted April 22, 2010 Re: Dutching score system Ok good I'm getting my head round it and can now work it out using the calculator and get to the same figures as I should do, however applying the system to tonights game between Athletico and Liverpool in which I cannot see Athletico scoring 3 or more goals their lay odds are 2.54 So does that mean I do 2.54 divided by 0.54 then? Sorry just the number not being 1.something is confusing me! the system is based on odds where their range is to lay a team 1.3 - 1.8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAW Posted April 22, 2010 Share Posted April 22, 2010 Re: Dutching score system Ok good I'm getting my head round it and can now work it out using the calculator and get to the same figures as I should do, however applying the system to tonights game between Athletico and Liverpool in which I cannot see Athletico scoring 3 or more goals their lay odds are 2.54 So does that mean I do 2.54 divided by 0.54 then? Sorry just the number not being 1.something is confusing me! The inverse of odds is (odds/(odds-1)) So 2.54/1.54 = 1.65 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrrrrrry Posted April 22, 2010 Share Posted April 22, 2010 Re: Dutching score system the system is based on odds where their range is to lay a team 1.3 - 1.8 Yeah I know I'm just using the system as a basis for learning dutching really. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrrrrrry Posted April 22, 2010 Share Posted April 22, 2010 Re: Dutching score system The inverse of odds is (odds/(odds-1)) So 2.54/1.54 = 1.65 Thankyou got it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattjadams Posted April 22, 2010 Share Posted April 22, 2010 Re: Dutching score system I really dont follow this..... Could someone explain show the calculations i would need to do to place a bet.... I have £20 - i want to place it on the following odds: Lay odds: 1.4 1-0: 7 2-0: 8.5 2-1: 10 I cant work out how to spread that £20. Sorry for being extremely slow at this.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furlong Posted April 22, 2010 Share Posted April 22, 2010 Re: Dutching score system I really dont follow this..... Could someone explain show the calculations i would need to do to place a bet.... I have £20 - i want to place it on the following odds: Lay odds: 1.4 1-0: 7 2-0: 8.5 2-1: 10 I cant work out how to spread that £20. Sorry for being extremely slow at this.... This screen-shot shows the calculations using the odds given for the Bayern game...hope this helps http://www.youshare.com/mdt25uk/897c4738d0b47a74.jpg.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cavendish Posted April 22, 2010 Share Posted April 22, 2010 Re: Dutching score system This screen-shot shows the calculations using the odds given for the Bayern game...hope this helps I also seem to have a problem grasping the stake used! Surely the stake should be the same unless you are increasing the stake in line with profits. I opened the link which would be helpful if i knew where to locate this clever tool/calculator. I already have the oddschecker link, which is a good tool but only if your backing (dutching). Regards Cavendish Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAW Posted April 22, 2010 Share Posted April 22, 2010 Re: Dutching score system If you think about laying as simply backing a team not to win, then you can see that you are just dutching 4 outcomes. The only thing you need to do is convert the lay odds into the effective price you're backing at. So, unless you want to write as spreadsheet, the simplest thing is to use a dutching calculator, just as long as you don't mind a few pence difference in the profit depending on the outcome Using matt's example then: step 1 -- find the inverse of the odds you're laying 1.4 / (1.4 - 1) = 1.4 / 0.4 = 3.5 step 2 -- put this and the correct score odds into the calculator, along with the chosen total stake (£20) the stakes come out as 3.5 £8.84 7.0 £4.42 8.5 £3.64 10 £3.09 step 3 -- place the lay bet for a LIABILITY of £8.84, this translates to a Backer's Stake of: £8.84 / (1.4 - 1) = £22.10 step 4 -- back the 3 correct scores to the given stakes In this case the effective odds for the total bet work out at about 1.5 Betting long odds on isn't for me, but I must be in the minority as this system sure seems popular! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
holygrail83 Posted April 22, 2010 Share Posted April 22, 2010 Re: Dutching score system If you think about laying as simply backing a team not to win, then you can see that you are just dutching 4 outcomes. The only thing you need to do is convert the lay odds into the effective price you're backing at. So, unless you want to write as spreadsheet, the simplest thing is to use a dutching calculator, just as long as you don't mind a few pence difference in the profit depending on the outcome Using matt's example then: step 1 -- find the inverse of the odds you're laying 1.4 / (1.4 - 1) = 1.4 / 0.4 = 3.5 step 2 -- put this and the correct score odds into the calculator, along with the chosen total stake (£20) the stakes come out as 3.5 £8.84 7.0 £4.42 8.5 £3.64 10 £3.09 step 3 -- place the lay bet for a LIABILITY of £8.84, this translates to a Backer's Stake of: £8.84 / (1.4 - 1) = £22.10 step 4 -- back the 3 correct scores to the given stakes In this case the effective odds for the total bet work out at about 1.5 Betting long odds on isn't for me, but I must be in the minority as this system sure seems popular! i think with matt's example he wanted to wager £20 only and this would be more. Don't want to confuse things...so you would be placing a £22.10 lay bet and then placing another £10 worth of bets on top? or simply placing the 8.84 lay bet? the bit about it becoming a backers stke is confuing when it is supposed to be lay! sorry to be thick! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furlong Posted April 22, 2010 Share Posted April 22, 2010 Re: Dutching score system This screen-shot shows the calculations using the odds given for the Bayern game...hope this helps I also seem to have a problem grasping the stake used! Surely the stake should be the same unless you are increasing the stake in line with profits. I opened the link which would be helpful if i knew where to locate this clever tool/calculator. I already have the oddschecker link, which is a good tool but only if your backing (dutching). Regards Cavendish Hi The 'clever tool/calculator' is one that i use - just did a screen-shot because unable to copy/paste. Back to the calculations that seem to have some a bit confused and using the odds shown in my screen-shot, i will try and clarify the figures. The 'stake' for the lay price (£10.84) is the LIABILTY on that bet, The actual stake would be approx £15.84 So if Bayern 'lose' you would win:£15.84 less £9.17 (stakes for c/s) = £6.67 profit If score is 1-0 you would win £22.70 less £16.66 (stakes for c/s + liabilty on lay bet)= £6.04 profit If score is 2-0 you would win £23.10 less £16.97 (stakes for c/s + liabilty on lay bet)=£6.13 profit If score is 2-1 you would win £23.35 les £17.23 (stake for c/s + liabilty on lay bet)=£6.12 profit Mike Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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