leftism Posted April 18, 2010 Share Posted April 18, 2010 Hi guys, just thought i'd share my first attempt at a betting system. I'm a long time lurker, first time poster. We'll call the system 'Dutching Score'. The system is simple but seems to work very consistently in multiple leagues! I have backtested the system, refining the odds range for entry bets etc, adding a loss recovery mechanism and have come up with a consistent strike rate in all european leagues i've tested it on... I've also papertrailed it for the last two seasons in Eng, Ita, Spa leagues and have had consistent profits (not massive profits but consistent). At the same time i'm not convinced of what i'm doing and thought some of you experienced guys could spot some pitfalls in my theory and give me some advice. Strike rates: English Prem (2010): 70.5% English Prem (2009): 76.4% English Prem (2008): 71.3% English Prem (2007): 78.3% English Prem (2006): 79.5% English Prem (2005): 72.9% Italy Seria A (2009): 80.9% Italy Seria A (2008): 82.7% Spain Primera (2009): 76.2% Spain Primera (2008): 76.2% German Bundesliga (2009): 74.6% Ok so the selection criteria are simple: 1)Any home teams with pre-game lay odds between 2 -1.4 2)Any away teams with pre-game lay odds between 1.8-1.3 I've run the numbers on Matlab and these odds seem to give the most consistent strike rates from season to season and league to league. Betting system: 1) Once a team meets your selection criteria, lay the team. 2) Dutch scorelines 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 in favour of the selected team. 3) Sit back and pray!!! hehe :tongue2 The average yield per game is approximately 40% but it can be as little as 20% or as high as 60%. I'll throw in an example for tomorrow 19/04/2010: League: English Premier Match: Liverpool v West Ham Lay Odds:1.42 (stake=23.) Score Odds: 1-0 @ 7.8 (stake=4.27) 2-0 @ 7.4 (stake=4.63) 2-1 @ 9.4 (stake=3.54) Total Liability: 21.9 Potential Profit: 11.02 Yield: 50.7% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leftism Posted April 18, 2010 Author Share Posted April 18, 2010 Re: Dutching score system I'm gonna papertrail the remainder of this season just for giggles and see what comes up. As with all plans, Murphy's law usually has a way of screwing things up but we'll see anyways. If someone could help me download spreadsheets here i'll put up a nice weekly results sheet for the system but for the moment i'll just post up. You'll have to trust me on the profits i'm getting per game coz i'm not gonna put up all the score odds for each game, it'll just confuse things. I'm gonna start with a bankroll of 2000 euro and work off bets of 1% starting bankroll (around 20 euro per game). Loss recovery system is a basic martingale approach with a factor of 2 (divided up on next weeks games). Again it seemed to work well backtesting but maybe there is a better way??? Ok so todays matches that were selected last night were as follows: 1)Dortmund v Hoffenheim: Liability (18.9 euro), potential profit (9.17) 2)Catania v Siena: Liability (18.4), potential profit (6.6) 3)Bilbao v Zaragosa: Liability (17.8), potential profit (7.12) 4)Real Madrid v Valencia Liability (17.1), potential profit (15.6) 5)Portsmouth v Aston Villa: liability (19.7), potential profit (7.7) 6)Wigan v Arsenal: liability (18.45), potential profit (9.5) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box3r Posted April 18, 2010 Share Posted April 18, 2010 Re: Dutching score system it seems pretty good. you seem to scored every game today. I want to ask you are Real & Barcelona the worst to score? They score over 3 goals sometimes. I can ask the same for the big four from england and how are you calculating the stakes?? I know there is a calculator but it seems i can't find it. lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leftism Posted April 18, 2010 Author Share Posted April 18, 2010 Re: Dutching score system Yeah good day so far today. 4 out of 4!:nana Hopefully the 2 Spanish games will come in for us! I have my doubts about the Real game but with a yield of 90% its worth a punt. I've thought about filtering out big scoring teams like Real Madrid, etc. but i run all my numbers through matlab and its complicated enough assigning numerical tags on all the teams. My opinion on the ideal betting system though is that it shouldn't matter who is playing. If the system works on the basis of sound research and mathematical principals it shouldn't matter who is playing. I won't rule out possibly refining it in the offseason though! I put together a spreadsheet in Excel to calculate all my stakes etc. Its easy enough to set up! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box3r Posted April 18, 2010 Share Posted April 18, 2010 Re: Dutching score system Can you show me?? i know i have the calc bookmarked somwhere. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leftism Posted April 18, 2010 Author Share Posted April 18, 2010 Re: Dutching score system can't seem to attach the spreadsheet... i'll stick it up as a picture if you like! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box3r Posted April 18, 2010 Share Posted April 18, 2010 Re: Dutching score system Sure m8 thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twinny Posted April 18, 2010 Share Posted April 18, 2010 Re: Dutching score system Box 3r if you go to oddschecker.com,look in the top right corner there is betting tools,this has a drop down which says dutching,if you click that you can work out your stakes per selection to return the same profit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twinny Posted April 18, 2010 Share Posted April 18, 2010 Re: Dutching score system good luck with this leftism,what a good idea:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
methuselah Posted April 19, 2010 Share Posted April 19, 2010 Re: Dutching score system Not sure how to work this out. The back Dutch is easy but how do I calculate the Lay Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tram-BOOK-ismoi Posted April 19, 2010 Share Posted April 19, 2010 Re: Dutching score system Not sure how to work this out. The back Dutch is easy but how do I calculate the Lay in order to calculate the lay you should do a simple calculation and find the common odd. Lets see an examble: liverpool lay odd :1.47 remove the unit 1.47 - 1 = 0.47 and then divide 1.47 / 0.47 = 3.12 and this the final odd...;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnakeDoc Posted April 19, 2010 Share Posted April 19, 2010 Re: Dutching score system Looks good leftism. I wish you the best of luck! The amount of your bank which you stake on the dutch side and the lay side isn't clear though. The 23 euro lay on liverpool seems out of the blue, as does the total amount dutched on the CS market (12.44). I've looked at the calculations for each to see if there's a link (so liability from Match odds is covered to a certain profit in CS & vice versa), but can't seem to find one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salparadise Posted April 19, 2010 Share Posted April 19, 2010 Re: Dutching score system Hi leftism, This is an idea I have been looking at for a while and trying to refine, although I havent been playing with the idea of away teams, only home games. Ive started to look at lower leagues as well, but I dont have a great deal of time so its a slow process!! Hopefully I want to have something up and running for next season so there is still a while to refine it.. In saying that the Spanish segunda division is looking promising, using your system this year it has a strike rate so far of over 80%! Im gonna take a bit of time over the next few days hopefully to go through the data and see what its like for the last few years, and whether it make be worth including any other parameters...:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leftism Posted April 19, 2010 Author Share Posted April 19, 2010 Re: Dutching score system Cheers for all the positive comments guys! 6 out of 6 results yesterday! :nana:nana:nana Our current bankroll is 2055.69. Strike rate 100% Yield 49% Great start to the online papertrail. I do not predict the strike rate or yield to remain this high but we can always hope! 2 matches in the system for tonight. 1)Liverpool v West Ham (total liability 19.25)(potential profit 11.44) 2)Malorca v Ossasuna (total liability 24.8)(potential profit 8.5) Looks good leftism. I wish you the best of luck! The amount of your bank which you stake on the dutch side and the lay side isn't clear though. The 23 euro lay on liverpool seems out of the blue, as does the total amount dutched on the CS market (12.44). I've looked at the calculations for each to see if there's a link (so liability from Match odds is covered to a certain profit in CS & vice versa), but can't seem to find one. The 23 euro lay stake covers Liverpool drawing or losing. 23 -12.44 (total CS stakes)=10.56 which is the profit in that case. If any of the CS results come in, i take a similar profit once you subtract your liability from the lay. Kinda complicated but it works pretty well! I'll stick up a more fully explained example now which should help. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leftism Posted April 19, 2010 Author Share Posted April 19, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leftism Posted April 19, 2010 Author Share Posted April 19, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAW Posted April 19, 2010 Share Posted April 19, 2010 Re: Dutching score system If i'm reading this right, isn't it more or less the same as laying 3-0 / 3-1 / 3-2 / any unquoted ? Except your bet covers the (somewhat unlikely) scenario of an any unquoted draw or win for the underdog. By my reckoning you're getting odds of 1.453, as opposed to 1.465 by doing the above (using current market prices and after commission), so can't really see the where the edge is. But then i'm a bit brain dead today and could be totally wrong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leftism Posted April 19, 2010 Author Share Posted April 19, 2010 Re: Dutching score system If i'm reading this right, isn't it more or less the same as laying 3-0 / 3-1 / 3-2 / any unquoted ? Except your bet covers the (somewhat unlikely) scenario of an any unquoted draw or win for the underdog. That "somewhat unlikely" scenario of the underdog winning or drawing occurs WAY more frequently than you might think! For example, 4 of the 6 games from yesterday... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box3r Posted April 19, 2010 Share Posted April 19, 2010 Re: Dutching score system Actually it's worse to your's PAW then his. I tried with Liverpool game. When i input 3-0 / 3-1 / 3-2 / any unquoted and the same liability i get 2 times less of profit. I didn't calculate his math but i reckon it is good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAW Posted April 19, 2010 Share Posted April 19, 2010 Re: Dutching score system That "somewhat unlikely" scenario of the underdog winning or drawing occurs WAY more frequently than you might think! For example' date=' 4 of the 6 games from yesterday...[/quote'] Sorry, what I meant was the scenario where the underdog wins or draws AND scores 4 goals or more. Not trying to put a downer on things in any way. Great start! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leftism Posted April 19, 2010 Author Share Posted April 19, 2010 Re: Dutching score system No worries man! Thats exactly the kind of reply i was hoping for, coz there are many ways to skin a cat and often somebody else can do it better. I actually see your point now... I'll have to run the numbers on that one Cheers for the comment though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leftism Posted April 19, 2010 Author Share Posted April 19, 2010 Re: Dutching score system Just help me out here to make sure i understand you right, coz i'm not great with odds etc; Current lay odds on betfair; 3-0: 11.5 3-1: 15 3-2: 40 unqouted: 7.4 If i were to spread my backers stake equally amongs them (11 euro each), i would win 44 euro (so long as Liverpool dont win by any of those scores). If Liverpool did win by any of those scores, i would lose money. For example Liverpool win 3-2 i would lose nearly 400 euro. But if Liverpool win 4-0 i would only lose 40 euro. With my method, (at the current odds), i risk 104 euro for a 45 euro profit (43% yield) no matter which unwanted scoreline comes up (3-0,3-1,3-2 etc). I wouldnt fancy risking potentially 400 euro just to make 40.... I could be wrong with my calculations here. If so i do apologise in advance! Completely off topic though, 7.4 seem like great lay odd on any unquoted score! Wouldn't fancy either Liverpool or West Ham to put away 4 goals.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnakeDoc Posted April 19, 2010 Share Posted April 19, 2010 Re: Dutching score system Hope this explains it better.... Not exactly. So you dutch the CS with a total stake of around 10 euros. And then lay Liverpool TO A LIABILITY of around 10 euros? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAW Posted April 19, 2010 Share Posted April 19, 2010 Re: Dutching score system Just help me out here to make sure i understand you right, coz i'm not great with odds etc; Current lay odds on betfair; 3-0: 11.5 3-1: 15 3-2: 40 unqouted: 7.4 If i were to spread my backers stake equally amongs them (11 euro each), i would win 44 euro (so long as Liverpool dont win by any of those scores). If Liverpool did win by any of those scores, i would lose money. For example Liverpool win 3-2 i would lose nearly 400 euro. But if Liverpool win 4-0 i would only lose 40 euro. With my method, (at the current odds), i risk 104 euro for a 45 euro profit (43% yield) no matter which unwanted scoreline comes up (3-0,3-1,3-2 etc). I wouldnt fancy risking potentially 400 euro just to make 40.... I could be wrong with my calculations here. If so i do apologise in advance! Completely off topic though, 7.4 seem like great lay odd on any unquoted score! Wouldn't fancy either Liverpool or West Ham to put away 4 goals.... There's a lay calculator here, that also takes commission into account http://www.arbcruncher.com/multilay.asp It says that laying at those odds, for a 104 liability, the potential profit would be 45.17. That equates to odds of 1.434 So, pretty much the same, which I guess is what you'd expect since it's pretty much the same bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leftism Posted April 19, 2010 Author Share Posted April 19, 2010 Re: Dutching score system Not exactly. So you dutch the CS with a total stake of around 10 euros. And then lay Liverpool TO A LIABILITY of around 10 euros? Thats it! Man i sucked at explaining it....:\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box3r Posted April 19, 2010 Share Posted April 19, 2010 Re: Dutching score system Did you look other ranges of odds? I mean there could be better teams to bet on. Example today there is a match between Linfield vs. Bohemians (I know that is not your leagues.. you making a example). Odds are 2.64 to lay Linfield. That could be a tight match and better to score on your system (maybe) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leftism Posted April 19, 2010 Author Share Posted April 19, 2010 Re: Dutching score system I have checked out most odds ranges in the English Prem, Ita Seria A. Problem with odds over 2 is that while the bet looks tempting and you think the 2 teams are evenly matched, ie-should be a draw or a low scoring game, in the long term you will end up losing. Two reasons for this: 1) The potential yield is too low. 2) The risk over a full season is too high. Based on the odds currently qouted, a bet on Linfield with my system would give you a yield of 13%. Not a high enough yield to risk it... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box3r Posted April 19, 2010 Share Posted April 19, 2010 Re: Dutching score system Lol i am still strugling with calculating that lay bet. I know how to dutch but lay bet is.. aargh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leftism Posted April 19, 2010 Author Share Posted April 19, 2010 Re: Dutching score system ok so the calculation for your lay stake is this: (lay odds-1) x (lay stake) must be (total staked on dutching scorelines) that way you'll make a profit either way. Then you just need to find the right lay stake to give you equal profits. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
methuselah Posted April 19, 2010 Share Posted April 19, 2010 Re: Dutching score system I actually Bet on the Aalesund and Plymouth matches. Both winners.:dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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