Thirsk 16th April

[chris34]

3.05 Thirsk Academy Blues is sure to be a stupid price on the back of 2 good enough efforts but drying ground may side against him aswell as a double penalty and I am willing to take him on for that reasona an Regeneration looks as though he could offer a bet to nothing at around 5/1, he was a creditable 6th in much hotter race on seasonal reappearance at doncaster couple weeks ago and sure to come on for the run now only 3lb higher than last win and will apreciate the drying ground. 0.5pt e/w Regeneration 4.15 Thirsk There is a strong bias over the 5f over here and that is to the high drawn horses. So you can really narrow this field down quite quickly although there are 2 that I quite like on the low draw and that is Sirenuse who is lightly raced and good 4th last week, and feeling foxy who is consistent. Mandarin spirit is drawn stall 8 and was a good enough 3rd on seasonal reappearance last time out behind highland warrior, better ground in his favour and has just recently done his bets racing over 5f. 0.25pt e/w mandarin spirit 4.45 Thirsk Highland Warrior is drawn stall 8 and could prove extremely tough to beat having run well on reappearance staying on for 2nd, and then as good as ever when winning a musselburgh handicap, 6lb penalty still makes him well in on old form and Pickard back on board again. 1pt win highland warrior

[bowles10]

Re: Thirsk 16th April 4.15 & 4.45 race 5f sprint DRAW - all 2009 5f races 4-1-2 (11) Gd (3yo) - LOW-LOW-LOW 12-8-14 (12) Gd (2yo) - HIGH - MID - HIGH 3-8-10 (9) Gd (3yo) LOW - HIGH - HIGH 7-5-1 (8) Gd-sft (2yo) HIGH - MID - LOW 7-3-8 (9) Gd-sft (2yo) HIGH - LOW - HIGH 11-2-7 (10) Gd (2yo) HIGH - LOW - MID 10-9-7 (10) Gd (3yo+) HIGH - HIGH - MID 5-8-7 (7) Gd (3yo+) MID - HIGH - HIGH 19-15-18 (17) G/F (3yo+) HIGH - HIGH - HIGH 11-12-4 (10) G/F (3/4yo) HIGH - HIGH - LOW 3-1-4 (8) Firm (3yo+) LOW - LOW - MID 9-12-7 (12) Gd (2yo) HIGH - HIGH - MID 8-4-9 (8) Gd (4yo+) HIGH - MID - HIGH 5-3-4 (9) Gd (4yo+) MID - LOW - MID 6-2-5 (7) G/F (2yo) HIGH - LOW - MID 4-10-1 (16) G/F (4yo+) LOW - MID - LOW 6-1-3 (6) Firm (2yo) HIGH - LOW - MID 5-11-2 (9) Firm (3yo) MID - HIGH - LOW 3-6-7 (5) G/F (2yo) MID - HIGH - HIGH 8-3-2 (8) G/F (4yo+) HIGH - MID - LOW I have bolded the races with 10 or more runners on Good ground. Of 24 places, 12-5-7 is the result HIGH-MID-LOW so 50% of the places went to those drawn high. More significantly 6 of the 8 races were won by HIGH draws which is 75% taking the percentage even higher. Perhaps the draw bias was best seen in the middle of the summer so perhaps remember that. From 12 races over 5f, 9 were won by HIGH draws in the middle part of the season. At the beginning of the season 5 of 10 won & at the end of the season 1 of 3 won.