Tonyvdb Posted November 7, 2004 Share Posted November 7, 2004 * - I will test a system, in which I will be betting on the away-team, when that team is the favourite, generally meaning between 1,01 - 2,50 average odds. - The system is still in a testing phase (however I'm having small stakes on some of them, but that is irrelevant for this thread) - I will try to update as often as possible, a few times a week normally * - I don't know whether you might consider this as a Free Role or Strategy System, but important is that I will not bet on ALL away-favourites, only the ones I consider useful for my system, the ones I think they are the favourite. Some away teams are seen as favourites by the bookies, but if I don't agree, they will not make it to the system. (eg. Kiev - Real Madrid) - If I think a team is the favourite, but think the odds are too low, the game does not make the system (eg. Den Bosch - PSV) - Sometimes you will see odds like 2,85, you may think then that these are not favorite-teams, but if the average odds (on Betbrain and/or Tipp-ex) are below the average of the home-team, then the game is suitable for the system. - I will always post the highest odd available of the bookmaker, where I have accounts (so the one I (would) use, if I actually placed the bet) (These are : Betfair, Betdaq, Interwetten, Betandwin, Playit, Ladbrokes, Bet365, Unibet, Nordicbet, Sportingbet, Bluesq, Willhill, Centrebet, Canbet, Admiral, Globet, Pinnacle, Premierbet, Mr.Bookmaker, Expekt, Coral, Thegreek, Paddypower and Victorchandler.) * - my staking plan is very simple : I begin with a bank of 100 EURO, and each bet will be 2% of my bank. Starting bank : 100 Current bank : 100 Bets Win/Lose : 0/0 Strike rate : 0 Average staked : 0 Average odds Win/lose : 0 Total staked : 0 Profit/Loss : 0 Yield Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tonyvdb Posted November 7, 2004 Author Share Posted November 7, 2004 1. 1. Pescara - Empoli : - league : Italy - Serie B - bet : Empoli à 2,40 - bookie : Expekt.com - stake : 2 EURO (One thing I forgot to mention : stake will always be minimum 2 EURO, even when the bank goes under 100) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tonyvdb Posted November 9, 2004 Author Share Posted November 9, 2004 Re: Away Favourite-system Pescara - Empoli : 1-0 :( Starting bank : 100 Current bank : 98 Bets Win/Lose : 0/1 Strike rate : 0% Total staked : 2 Profit/Loss : -2 Yield : -2% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Intensity Posted November 9, 2004 Share Posted November 9, 2004 Re: Away Favourite-system How is the yield -2%? :unsure Surely it is -100%? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tonyvdb Posted November 9, 2004 Author Share Posted November 9, 2004 Re: Away Favourite-system How is the yield -2%? :unsure Surely it is -100%?of course :o Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tonyvdb Posted November 9, 2004 Author Share Posted November 9, 2004 2 2. Sedan - Monaco : - France L Cup - bet : Monaco à 2,222 - bookie : Betdaq - stake : 2 EURO 3. Clermont - Toulouse : - France L Cup - bet : Toulouse à 2,623 - bookie : Betfair - stake : 2 EURO 4. Dundee U - Hibernian : - Scotland L Cup - bet : Hibs à 2,853 - bookie : Betfair - stake : 2 EURO 5. Cardiff - Portsmouth : - England L Cup - bet : Portsmouth à 2,89 - bookie : Betfair - stake : 2 EURO 6. Dijon - Bordeaux : - France L Cup - bet : Bordeaux à 2,222 - bookie : Betfair - stake : 2 EURO 7. Brest - Sochaux : - France L Cup - bet : Sochaux à 2,337 - bookie : Betfair - stake : 2 EURO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
01087924 Posted November 9, 2004 Share Posted November 9, 2004 Re: Away Favourite-system Good luck with the tips. For some reason unknown to me i feel urged to follow these tips tonight.... and i will Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tonyvdb Posted November 9, 2004 Author Share Posted November 9, 2004 Re: Away Favourite-system Good luck with the tips. For some reason unknown to me i feel urged to follow these tips tonight.... and i willplease don't feel urged ... these ain't tips either in fact ... It's a system-test, see top post. But to be honest, I backed all of them too ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
01087924 Posted November 9, 2004 Share Posted November 9, 2004 Re: Away Favourite-system WHAT??!!??!!?? They're not tips??? I don't know whether you might consider this as a Free Role or Strategy System, but important is that I will not bet on ALL away-favourites, only the ones I consider useful for my system, the ones I think they are the favourite What does that mean then! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tonyvdb Posted November 9, 2004 Author Share Posted November 9, 2004 Re: Away Favourite-system it means, I'm testing a system with away-favourites, that I consider favourites, with high enough odds to eventually back. It's a TEST,meaning I'm not aware whether this system will be successfull or not in the long run. That's why I post these selections here and not in Britain or Europe or Tipster Proofing or whatever ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
01087924 Posted November 9, 2004 Share Posted November 9, 2004 Re: Away Favourite-system If it's a test system then you put it in the Proofing forum!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tonyvdb Posted November 9, 2004 Author Share Posted November 9, 2004 Re: Away Favourite-system 2. Sedan - Monaco : 0-1 3. Clermont - Toulouse : 0-0 4. Dundee U - Hibernian : 1-1 5. Cardiff - Portsmouth : 0-2 6. Dijon - Bordeaux: 1-1 7. Brest - Sochaux: 1-2 Starting bank : 100 Current bank : 100,9 Bets Win/Lose : 3/4 Strike rate : 42,86% Total staked : 14 Profit/Loss : +0,9 Yield : +0,9% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted November 10, 2004 Share Posted November 10, 2004 Re: Away Favourite-system Tony, the term Free Style or Strategy is just a name. Its purpose is to give people a quick idea of what kind of bet selection process is used. In this case a big part of the bet selection is your personal belief if a team is rightfully favourite or not. This selection criteria cannot be reproduced by anyone else, its completely personal, making this a Free Style system. If you where to do the test based on odds alone it would be Fixed. ( anyone can reproduce the results exactly the same ) If you where to describe a set of rules/guidelines to determine if a team is rightfully favourite or not it would be a Strategy. ( anyone can produce, not exactly the same, but very simular results ) 01087924, with proofing Forum i think you mean Tipster forum ? If so the Tipster Forum is specifically for Tipster who run a Tipster service on a commercial basis. In Systems and Strategy its fine to run a system just to test out an idea. I ask people to state if its a paper trail or real life so there is no misunderstanding about it. In this case Tony says its paper trail, meaning he does not recommend you put money on the bets because he has no reason so far to think the system will be successfull. ( either way ) Hopefully of course it will, Good luck Tony :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tonyvdb Posted November 10, 2004 Author Share Posted November 10, 2004 Re: Away Favourite-system Thanks Datapunter :) 8. Ahlen - Rostock : - Germany Cup - 2 Ã 2,55 - Unibet - stake : 2 EURO 9. Elche - Deportivo : - Spain Copa - 2 Ã 2,15 - Centrebet - stake : 2 EURO 10. Cadiz - Betis : - Spain Copa - 2 Ã 2,35 - Expekt - stake : 2 EURO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tonyvdb Posted November 10, 2004 Author Share Posted November 10, 2004 Re: Away Favourite-system 8. Ahlen - Rostock : 2-2 9. Elche - Deportivo : 1-0 10. Cadiz - Betis : 0-2 After 10 bets : Starting bank : 100 Current bank : 99,6 Bets Win/Lose : 4/6 Strike rate : 40% Total staked : 20 Profit/Loss : -0,4 Yield : -0,98% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
01087924 Posted November 11, 2004 Share Posted November 11, 2004 Re: Away Favourite-system So unlucky with hibs and now rostuck too. conceding goals with only minutes to go! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tonyvdb Posted November 11, 2004 Author Share Posted November 11, 2004 Re: Away Favourite-system So unlucky with hibs and now rostuck too. conceding goals with only minutes to go!That's football ... but you must know Sochaux also scored their winning goal in the last minute. Anyway, I think that generally, if you would count all those last minute-winners and -losers together, you would have a break-even. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tonyvdb Posted November 12, 2004 Author Share Posted November 12, 2004 Re: Away Favourite-system 11. Southend - Luton : - England FA Cup - 2 Ã 2,318 - Betfair - stake : 2 EURO 12. Drogheda - Cork : - Ireland Premier - 2 Ã 2,40 - Nordicbet - stake : 2 EURO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tonyvdb Posted November 12, 2004 Author Share Posted November 12, 2004 Re: Away Favourite-system 11. Southend - Luton: 0-3 12. Drogheda - Cork: 1-3 After 12 bets : Starting bank : 100 Current bank : 105,03 Bets Win/Lose : 6/6 Strike rate : 50% Total staked : 24 Profit/Loss : +5,03 Yield : +20,96% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punter66 Posted November 12, 2004 Share Posted November 12, 2004 Re: Away Favourite-system Good picks tonight Tony :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tonyvdb Posted November 12, 2004 Author Share Posted November 12, 2004 Re: Away Favourite-system Thanks ! I've been backtesting this system for a few weeks and after 400+ bets, I still was 10% in favor. But as you know, backtesting can be subjective and false-hope-giving, so I started this thread to test it "IRL". I'm very busy (with non-betting stuff :) ) starting from tomorrow noon, so I'll try to post as many weekend-picks before that time. A lot of good games for the system, here are a few saturday-games I already backed : 13. Exeter - Grimsby : - England FA Cup - bet : Grimsby à 2,75 - bookie : Ladbrokes - stake : 2,1 EURO 14. Southport - Hereford : - England FA Cup - bet : Hereford à 2,40 - bookie : Unibet - stake : 2,1 EURO 15. Gimnasia - River Plate : - Argentina - bet : R. Plate à 2,60 - bookie : Unibet - stake : 2,1 EURO 16. Hamilton - Queen of the South : - Scotland L 1 - bet : Queen ot South à 2,413 - bookie : Betfair - stake : 2,1 EURO 17. Numancia - Sevilla : - Spain 1 - bet : Sevilla à 2,25 - bookie : Admiral - stake : 2,1 EURO 18. Cordoba - Celta de Vigo : - Spain 2 - bet : Celta à 2,60 - bookie : Unibet - stake : 2,1 EURO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sherman Blue Posted November 12, 2004 Share Posted November 12, 2004 Re: Away Favourite-system Great post Tony very interesting to see how you go here over a longer period so keep it going. One question - I'm assuming your being selective on your picks based on personal opinion or are you looking purely at the best odds for away fav's? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tonyvdb Posted November 12, 2004 Author Share Posted November 12, 2004 Re: Away Favourite-system Well, I almost always pick odds of evens or above, highest available (list of my bookies, see top post) The tricky part is : I only bet those away favourites, the ones I consider being favourites. And even when I see them as favourites, but the odds are too low IMO, I don't touch it. So I don't just bet blindly all away teams with odds 2-2,50-ish. For example tonight : hesisated a long time, but in the end I didn't bet Zwolle visiting Telstar (Holland 2nd) tonight, because the 2,25 available wasn't good enough IMO. (I should have taken them, it was 1-2 :\ ) I won't bet Man U visiting Newcastle, neither will I back Middlesborough at WBA, neither Colchester at Mansfield, Barca at Betis, ... though in theory they would fit my system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tonyvdb Posted November 13, 2004 Author Share Posted November 13, 2004 Re: Away Favourite-system 3 more FA Cup-games, all at evens : 19. Histon - Shrewsbury : - England FA Cup - bet : Shrewsbury à 2,00 - bookie : Premierbet - stake : 2,1 EURO 20. Stafford - Chester : - England FA Cup - bet : Chester à 2,00 - bookie : Unibet - stake : 2,1 EURO 21. Alfreton - Macclesfield : - England FA Cup - bet : Macclesfield à 2,00 - bookie : Ladbrokes - stake : 2,1 EURO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tonyvdb Posted November 13, 2004 Author Share Posted November 13, 2004 Re: Away Favourite-system Can't wait for all games until being matched at the exchanges, so here I go : the rest of the saturday-games : 22. Stockport - Huddersfield : - England FA Cup - bet : 2 Ã 2,299 - bookie : Betfair - stake : 2,1 EURO 23. Rotherham - Wolves : - England Championship - bet : 2 Ã 2,35 - bookie : Centrebet - stake : 2,1 EURO 24. Forfar - Ayr : - Schotland L2 - bet : 2 Ã 2,494 - bookie : Betdaq - stake : 2,1 EURO 25. Maritimo - Benfica : - Portugal 1 - bet : 2 Ã 2,3 - bookie : Interwetten - stake : 2,1 EURO 26. Jaguares - Toluca : - Mexico - bet : 2 Ã 2,45 - bookie : Admiral - stake : 2,1 EURO 27. Culiacan - Atlas : - Mexico - bet : 2 Ã 2,4 - bookie : Admiral - stake : 2,1 EURO 28. Huracan - Colon : - Argentina - bet : 2 Ã 2,31 - bookie : Pinnacle - stake : 2,1 EURO 29. Union - Braunschweig : - Germany Reg. N - bet : 2 Ã 2,337 - bookie : Betfair - stake : 2,1 EURO 30. Peterborough - Tranmere : - England FA Cup - bet : 2 Ã 2,452 - bookie : Betfair - stake : 2,1 EURO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tonyvdb Posted November 13, 2004 Author Share Posted November 13, 2004 Re: Away Favourite-system two early sunday-picks, not many suitable games for sunday ... : 31. Fremad Amager - Frem : - Denmark Div 1 - bet : 2 Ã 2,25 - bookie : Admiral - stake : 2,1 EURO 32. Cagliari - Inter - Italy Serie A - bet : 2 Ã 2,15 - bookie : Expekt - stake : 2,1 EURO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tonyvdb Posted November 14, 2004 Author Share Posted November 14, 2004 Re: Away Favourite-system The English games a bit disappointing, those FA Cup-games are always something special. Apart from that, quite good results. 13. Exeter - Grimsby : 1-0 14. Southport - Hereford : 1-3 15. Gimnasia - River Plate : 1-1 16. Hamilton - Queen of the South: 1-0 17. Numancia - Sevilla : 2-1 18. Cordoba - Celta de Vigo : 0-1 19. Histon - Shrewsbury : 2-0 20. Stafford - Chester : 0-2 21. Alfreton - Macclesfield : 1-1 22. Stockport - Huddersfield : 3-1 23. Rotherham - Wolves : 1-2 24. Forfar - Ayr : 2-3 25. Maritimo - Benfica : 1-1 26. Jaguares - Toluca : 1-3 27. Culiacan - Atlas : 0-1 28. Huracan - Colon : 2-3 29. Union - Braunschweig : 1-2 30. Peterborough - Tranmere : 2-1 After 30 bets : Starting bank : 100 Current bank : 112,05 Bets Win/Lose : 15/15 Strike rate : 50% Total staked : 61,8 Profit/Loss : +12,05 Yield : +19,5% average odds : 2,39 average winner odds : 2,39 average loser odds : 2,39 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tonyvdb Posted November 14, 2004 Author Share Posted November 14, 2004 Re: Away Favourite-system 33. Lecce - Juventus : - Italy Serie 1 - bet : 2 Ã 1,993 - bookie : Betfair - stake : 2,25 EURO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tonyvdb Posted November 14, 2004 Author Share Posted November 14, 2004 Re: Away Favourite-system 31. Fremad Amager - Frem : 0-0 32. Cagliari - Inter : 3-3 33. Lecce - Juventus : 0-1 After 33 bets : Starting bank : 100 Current bank : 110,08 Bets Win/Lose : 16/17 Strike rate : 48,48% Total staked : 68,25 Profit/Loss : +10,08 Yield : +14,77% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tonyvdb Posted November 15, 2004 Author Share Posted November 15, 2004 2 Monday-games 34. Opava - Teplice : - Czech Rep. - bet : 2 Ã 2,30 - bookie : Sportingbet - stake : 2,2 EURO 35. Unterhaching - Koln : - Germany 2 - bet : 2 Ã 2,45 - bookie : Expekt - stake : 2,2 EURO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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