Finland League Cup final on Saturday 14.00 CET - Honka - JJK

[Puntteri]

Copied this from my blog.Why not paste it? Venue - Finnair Stadium Helsinki, HJK home ground It will be stated as a neutral venue, but it is far from it for FC Honka. Honka did play their home games there last season until their own stadium was under reconstruction, they do play most of their European competition matches there and it is also the venue for the Finland Cup finals where Honka have played two years in a row - and lost. Not to mention that it is only 7 km away from their own home ground whereas JJK will travel 300 kilometres. I am not sure if JJK have ever played there, last season´s away match at this HJK home stadium was played at nearby Pallokenttä. The stakes The winner of the match is the League Cup winner, and not much else. There is a small monetary prize, but there are no European competion spots. No one wants to lose the final ever, but as the league starts next week no risks involving injured players are taken. Class difference Honka is one of the best teams of the League, JJK were lucky to escape relegation last season. This season they have a chance for midtable position, but might face relegation worries again. Transfers Honka - Important mf Joel Perovuo left for Djurgården, Jarkko Värttö signed with FC Lahti but was not important, though a quality defender and a future promise. No new signings, the team is virtually unchanged but gained a year in experience which is a good thing for a young side. JJK have signed four key players for their starting eleven and are much stronger now than last season. Some dead wood have been thrown overboard, but Korean striker Nam would have been welcomed to stay. Coaching staff Mika Lehkosuo has stayed at Honka for years and has been praised often, Honka play attractive football and have gained results, still chasing their first big win. Kari Martonen did go to JJK from FC Honka for this season, and no one knows the home team better than he does after staying with Lehkosuo for all the latest four seasons. This is his first assignment as the head coach on top level, but the results in the League Cup have been excellent. Injuries & suspensions Honka will be without Rasmus Schüller and Markus Paatelainen, but they have been unavailable for a long time. Hermanni Vuorinen has been rested lately and might start from the bench. Rami Hakanpää did not play vs. Inter. Young mf Patrick Poutiainen is doubtful from the visitors. H-to-h 3-0-0, but JJK was not the same team last season it is now and no emphasis should be taken on last season´s performances. The form Honka have failed in scoring lately in the absence of Hermanni Vuorinen, but they are playing their trademark football with controlling the ball and keeping it in the ground. Inter got beaten 2-0 by two late goals on Wednesday, and the only loss Honka have suffered was on their travels, 1-0 at MyPa. JJK started the cup well and have continued it succesfully, but there has been also luck involved in their latest matches vs. Jaro 0-1 and TPS 2-2. In the group phase in the far easier group JJK lost vs KuPS and AC Oulu. Key factors Midfield battle. Honka midfielders are talented and skillful, but young and fairly unexperienced and physically lightweight. JJK are at their weakest at midfield, they do not get the ball forward fast enough and yet they often also fail to help the defense. The speed of Honka wingers Demba Savage and Nicholas Otaru might make the crucial difference. JJK defense will be under pressure throughout the match, but a goal by JJK´s Mikko Hyyrynen would not be a big surprise. Media coverage Live on Urho TV. Streams? Available in Finnish on internet radio. The verdict? No one will question who is the favourite, the question is how big favourites Honka really are? There is no need for a win with a big margin, but with the supremacy on the pitch it is also possible. Asian handicap estimations below. A betting guide If the real market prices are bigger than the ones in the table we are talking about a value bet. The odds move quite a lot in this particular market, and it is advisable to wait for a value of at least 5 %, but it is not uncommon to find 10% value then the odds start moving, though this match is not the best example as it is a cup final and there are not even odds open yet. An example, I have estimated that Honka -1.25 should be at least 2.08 to be value. If the market price is bigger then it should be taken, but it is up to you which risk or value level you want to take. If neither of Honka -1.25 @ 2.08 or JJK + 1.25 @ 1.92 is reached then no bet should definitely be taken. I have a couple of % bigger raw estimation for Honka than the european market, the difference comes probably from the League Cup results, I am more interested in performances and class. EDIT: Took myself Honka - 1 @ 1.90 & over 2.5 @ 2.03. Sometimes I wait live for totals, especially overs, but Honka tend to start the matches very strongly at home, and this is a home match.

	Honka	JJK
-1,5	2,4	1,71	1,5
-1,25	2,08	1,92	1,25
-1	1,84	2,19	1
-0,75	1,68	2,48	0,75
-0,5	1,54	2,86	0,5