law of large numbers Posted March 30, 2010 Share Posted March 30, 2010 Hello again been doing this for quiet awhile now and seen great results but i just have a few questions which im hoping u lot can help me with. Ok does anyone know how to find stats on teams coming back to equalize in the last 10 mins of a match? and maybe the odds just before they scored? Also last 10min winners as im thinking of doing this as well but the odds seem to be quiet abit higher(im guessing alot of the time teams just acept a point). Thanks in advance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted March 30, 2010 Share Posted March 30, 2010 Re: IN-PLAY Laying the winning team(1 GOAL MARGIN) after 80mins Hi id be interested in this aswell... while looking into football trading iv notices alot of late equalizing goals but am unsure if the number I remember is higher than I think just because im looking for it. Be nice to find some stats on it :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kumquat Tree Posted March 30, 2010 Share Posted March 30, 2010 Re: IN-PLAY Laying the winning team(1 GOAL MARGIN) after 80mins Sample of 15,952 games, England, Spain, Italy, Germany, France, Level I + II, Seasons 05-06 to 08-09. 6,740 of those games saw either team up by one goal after 80 minutes. 5,626 wins. 1,015 draws. 99 losses. You're welcome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bookie Buster Posted March 30, 2010 Share Posted March 30, 2010 Re: IN-PLAY Laying the winning team(1 GOAL MARGIN) after 80mins Very nice work there Kumquat. What site did you visit to get those stats? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kumquat Tree Posted March 30, 2010 Share Posted March 30, 2010 Re: IN-PLAY Laying the winning team(1 GOAL MARGIN) after 80mins No website. Own database. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
law of large numbers Posted March 30, 2010 Author Share Posted March 30, 2010 Re: IN-PLAY Laying the winning team(1 GOAL MARGIN) after 80mins thats brilliant kum! cheers for that what odds does that equate to then? around 1.18ish and im guessing thats evenly distributed between home and away? does ur database have a INPLAY games only? and can u see if there is any long barron runs in there? like 50 games that dont? again cheeers! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kumquat Tree Posted March 30, 2010 Share Posted March 30, 2010 Re: IN-PLAY Laying the winning team(1 GOAL MARGIN) after 80mins In theory, the average odds belonging to those stats on the leading team to win are 1.20. With 6.64 on the draw and 68.08 on the loss. It's not distributed evenly between the home side and the away side. The home side is 85.8% to win, representing average odds of 1.17. The away side ist 79.9% or 1.25. Also favorites are more likely to secure the lead until the final whistle than underdogs manage to win. Also a 1-0 is more likely to win than a 2-1 or 3-2. What do mean by "like 50 games that dont"? If Liverpool manages to uphold their lead against Bolton in the early afternoon game that has no influence on Aston Villa securing their lead against Wolves. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
law of large numbers Posted March 30, 2010 Author Share Posted March 30, 2010 Re: IN-PLAY Laying the winning team(1 GOAL MARGIN) after 80mins Again amazing stats! i want a database like urs! i know they have no bearing on each other but ive been martingaling(pls no lecture on this!) the lays and had a 41 game losing streak and still managed to still in the game quiet easy due to the low liability of the lay and would like to know of some big old streak so i can base my staking accordingly but it has to be inplay games at betfair, again cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kumquat Tree Posted March 30, 2010 Share Posted March 30, 2010 Re: IN-PLAY Laying the winning team(1 GOAL MARGIN) after 80mins You martingaled average lay odds of about 1.20? That's 1.20 to the power of 41, that's 1,764.00 units. Terrible effort to finally win 1 unit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinnyman9000 Posted March 30, 2010 Share Posted March 30, 2010 Re: IN-PLAY Laying the winning team(1 GOAL MARGIN) after 80mins Firstly, I think the odds will be lower than 1.20 if an odds on home favourite is winning with 10mins to go. Secondly, martingaling a lay of 1.20 is very different to a back. You're looking at a 20% liability, not a 20% win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kumquat Tree Posted March 30, 2010 Share Posted March 30, 2010 Re: IN-PLAY Laying the winning team(1 GOAL MARGIN) after 80mins If you don't limit your bet to home favorites, you will finally lay a 1.20 average. 1st match you lay 1.00 unit, 2nd match 1.20 units, 3rd match 1.44 units ... 41st match you lay 1.764 units. That's a liability of 353 units. Sorry, if I didn't make that clear enough before. To win 1 unit. Before commission BTW, that is up to 18 units, so still a loss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
law of large numbers Posted March 31, 2010 Author Share Posted March 31, 2010 Re: IN-PLAY Laying the winning team(1 GOAL MARGIN) after 80mins while what u say is true this is also a worst case senario and alot of the time i win quiet regularly and win quiet(for me) big which more than makes up for the barron runs just need to hang in there. Actually kum dont supose u have any info on tennis? ive been laying the first set winner and seem to do pretty well out of that as well, do u have any stats on players losing from winning the first set? cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kumquat Tree Posted March 31, 2010 Share Posted March 31, 2010 Re: IN-PLAY Laying the winning team(1 GOAL MARGIN) after 80mins Football? Tennis? Of course, I do have data on Tennis, I do have tons of data on practically anything you can put your money on. Overall 23,517 tennis matches in 2009 in database. In 19,038 matches, winner of first set also won the match, that's 80.9%. In a total of 2,984 matches the first set was decidend by tie-break Tie break winners won 2,358 matches, that's 79.0%. In a total of 919 matches the first set ended 6-0. First set winners won 848 matches, that's 92,3%. What next? Women's ski jumping? :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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