Lingfield Sat 20th Jan (AW)

[chris34]

Well AW racing doesnt get much hotter than this card on Winter Derby day and a real sign the flat season is upon us HOOOOOOOOORAY!! 1.55 Lingfield Hard to rule out to many of these especially considering this is a 'hands and heels' apprentice race but it might be worth following Charlie Smirke for a follow up effort, he was starting to get a reputation for being ungenuine because he had 5 2nds in a row but Baker assured punters he wasnt and he made it look easy last time out up 7lb for that effort 3lb offset by jockeys claim and sure to give his running having had a short break. 0.5pt e/w charlie smirke 2.25 Lingfield Perhaps not a race to get involved heavily with as many of these are closely matched on recent CD runs in qualifiers and that makes it hard from a punters view but I am a big fan of Autumn Blades and I believe is over priced at 10/1 has been running over trips too far last twice although running with credit first time pushed very wide and last time jockey dropped reins. Probert gets on well with the horse and cheekpieces were ditched last twice and interestingly visor is tried again and I cant see any reason why he wont run a solid race. From the scoop 6 point of view this would be a leg that may be worth one or more option. Everymanforhimself won last time out but had things perhaps in his favour last time out and faces a stiffer mark today. The scorching wind has a good record on the AW and is perhaps the most progressive in the field. Bravo echo is another progressive sort but was a head short on scorching wind 1lb better off at the weights which would put them closesly matched and is lightly raced but wide draw wont help this prominent sort. 0.5pt e/w Autumn Blades 10/1 bet365 3.00 Lingfield In all honesty I havnt paid much attention to the 3yr olds lately simply lack of time likely to come into my betting soon but will be playing this one as I have watched Grey's last 2 races in handicaps and very impressive! Hard to oppose Greyfriarschorista absolutely thrashed everything he has been faced with since going handicapping and looks well upto a crack at a listed race and is the one to beat especially with confirmed polytrack success. 1pt win Greyfriarschorista 5/2 bet365 3.35 Lingfield Dalradian has to find a little bit on official figures but is progressing extremely well and looks unexposed especially over this sort of trip having won over this CD very easily in handicap on penultimate start. But having said that they will all have to go someway to beat Tranquil Tiger who is now 2 from 2 over CD both in listed affairs trouncing Presvis and just get the better of Suits Me, goes well fresh and Queally gets on extremely well with the horse. Stotsfold comes into this the highest rated on OR but would have 1lb to find on Tranquil Tiger if this was a handicap held hot company last 2 years and did manage a win in group3 company at Longchamp acts on the surface and could be dangerous if all is well and has gone well fresh before. Typically the french raider looks over priced at 9/1 comes here in good form with 2 wins recently at Cagnes including a listed affair and has previously won a group3 and would be dangerous to dismiss. Personally cant cant have Soul City useful as a juvenile has several questions to answer now on polytrack debut, stepped up in trip and concerns as to why he has been off the track so long also likely to get pestered for the lead from the ultra tough Suits Me who couldnt have for the win purpose often set the race up for others but nonetheless is a toughy that ought to be a banker for the placepot imo!! 0.25pt e/w Dalradian 9/1 bet365 1pt win Tranquil Tiger 10/3 pp 4.10 Lingfield Dance the star won very easily when last ridden by Spencer didnt run to bad last time out off revised mark but his style does cause problems but suits spencer if he gets it right and will need a career best. Becausewecan has some useful form in the book and was last seen winning a valuable handicap at newmarket off a 5lb lower mark also has good form on AW with a win and 2 seconds has run well fresh before and yard can ready them if they want and market vibes important. Cluain Alain is an ex Oxx inmate and would be interest again if backed for a yard that does well with these sorts and often backed off boards if they do go well! Benedict spirit showed he is still in good form when 2nd yesterday at fakenham but unlikely to turn up for this surely! Cashpoint is relatively unexposed having won a weak NHF and a weak maiden last time out his opening mark looks a little harsh and would need to be something special to defy it in this company! Sworn Tigress is perhaps worth some credit after her performance last night she clearly got too far behind and wide throughout had little to offer with the winner who made all and flown nest but she did stay on well and if she can cope with another race in quick succession (you will know she is backed VERY heavily everytime now) back up in trip and inside draw will be easier to be up there this time 1pt win sworn tigress 0.5pt win becausewecan 4.45 Lingfield This really does look a favourites affair at Lingfield today Jaconet could take all the beating even though stepping back in trip with questions over whether she is better over 6f although has won 3 times over 5f and if she is fit she should be well in here drawn well to get to the front and certainly doesnt lack speed for this trip. Glamorous Spirit might also be worth taking a chance with in this grade clearly a little bit to find at the weights and OR but he is similar to Jaconet in that he will bolt for the line and has everychance of atleast plugging on for a place should the race turn into one where nothing comes from behind and well draw again to do just that 1pt win jaconet 0.25pt e/w Glamorous Spirit

[RussP]

Re: Lingfield Sat 20th Jan (AW) 2.25 Lingfield A real competitive handicap, a Class 2 7f handicap with 10 runners lining up. As it stands, there are 4 vying for favouritism and I'm opposing all of them. The Scorching Wind is the current likely fav under Ryan Moore but 2 main things put me off - 4lb raise in weights for lto win by the narrowest of margins (effectively 7lb if you include Carson's 3lb claim lto) and 7 weeks off the track. Brave Echo reopposes on 1lb better terms after being the one touched off in that race 7 weeks ago. The track absence again is an issue for me but of more a concern is the 2 narrow defeats, possibly ungenuine, and the rising mark without winning. Seek The Fair Land stands a chance but I'd prefer to ignore the last run where the pace was almost non existent, turning very tactical. If that form was solid, then the 2lb rise would look lenient but I think it's brave to back this horse on the basis of that run. I looked long and hard at Elna Bright, ridden by Fallon, and this is horse I like. As mentioned above, it's easy to ignore that race lto but I'm not one to back horses raised in handicap when failing to win on its last run so for that reason only, I'm passing over this one. However, it remains the main danger to the selection. Everymanforhimself is a useful type but is drawn too wide and looks to have been handicapped out of this whilst Autumn Blades needs the cheekpieces to be seen to best effect, but today it has the visor. Wigrams Turn is better at Kempton, is raised in mark for a lto defeat and starts too slowly to put your hard earned on, whereas Carcinetto and Tourist are the rags here and have too much to do to get competitive although the latter could sneak a place. This leaves us with the selection and that right goes to: Kyllachy Storm (14/1 Stan James) - I've now warmed to Richard Fahey whilst remaining a big fan of Paul Hanagan, and believe they may have the winner here. Interesting that stable had only 1 runner today, winning at 14's, and they travel further south here for just 1 again. The jockey has no other booked rides, which I find interesting. Won back in October here off a 2lb lower mark, under a great ride from the jockey and winning a shade cosily here, showing a nice turn of foot. Shown nothing since, last of 6 on its return from almost 4 months off in the aforementioned slowly run affair where Seek The Fair Land won. This horse actually ran well for a long way but its run petered out when needing the run. Has the cheekpieces back on, ran well on only previous try and eases in mark following last run. Looks a tight affair so every little thing could count so both mark of 88 and the cheekpieces could be the key. Has a nice draw in 7 to track the pace and makes it move off the final bend. Versatile with regards to pace which is a plus where it's not entirely certain that anyone wll go on. The price looks too big here. Admittedly, there are question marks but that can be said about every other horse in the race. Trainer wouldn't run here if he didn't feel it would do itself justice so I'll ignore its last run and take a bit of the 14's on offer.