my fancies for the festival

[joshsw25]

ok, here are my selections, i have spent about an hour analysing these races, and it may take a while to read but why not give all the details i can? for those of you in a rush, ill bold and caps the name of the horse i expect to win that race.

13:30 2m Nov Hrd

ok, lets kick off with the first race of the meeting. for me, dunguib is understandably the favourite, possessing a higher timeform rating than the field. he won the bumper at the festival last year and is four out of four over hurdles. ok, but we know the horse is not the most confident jumper, however saying that, his jumping was less than impressive at leapordstown earlier in the year, but he still performed. i would suggest the field was not half as competative as this one though, in a race where one mistake is the difference. if he has one bad jump, he is bound to lose confidence, and racing against a large field, those kind of mistakes cuse you to get boxed in, forced wide, and literally change the race. at EVN's the odds are hardly appealing for me, as much as i love the horse, and my preference is GET ME OUT OF HERE, who is five out of five, and still improving. 2 of them wins came in handicaps, one being the notoriously difficult totesport. i have watched this horse a few times, and the most striking thing is his ability to fight back, and he finds plenty at the end when every other horse is on empty. one mistake wont cost him the race, and with A. P McCoy on board, i think his odds are very generous. my advice is get on him early, cause he is bound to come in. if you dont fancy the front two, menorah is a good shout for an either way option, but don't expect anything better than a place. the betting: for this race i would suggest a simple back of get me out of here. alternatively, you could lay dunguib, but the odds of my selection draw me to the backing option. i cant see any other competitors than these two which eliminates the need for a lay. if your feeling more cautious, e/w on get me out of here looks a solid bet 14:05 2m Nov Chs on to the 14:05 then, for me its hard to choose between sizing europe and captain cee bee. sizing europe had an impressive win on boxing day at leapordstown, beating captain cee bee who fell at the last, but i think had captain cee bee stayed upright, he would have gone on to win. sizing europe hasn't raced since, and this race would have given his training direction, but CAPTAIN CEE BEE (although a less than fluent jumper) should suit the good to soft ground, having had to put up with mud all winter. i wouldn't read too much into the form of captain cee bee mind you, having raced in poor conditions, and mostly against soft opposition. somersby and riverside theatre both unbeaten over fences, with somersby coming 3rd to go native, makes them stiff opposition, but they should get beaten by the favourite captain cee bee who i can see winning it in the last furlong. little other opposition, include tataniano, who i saw get beat at 11/2 on, and the above mentioned horses should fill the places. the betting: i would lay sizing europe for this one. although i expect captain cee bee to win, i think this race could hold a few surprises. alternatively back captain cee bee e/w. 14:40 3m Hcap Chs im going to be honest and say i know very little about these horses other than bensalem. im going to suggest THE PACKAGE deserves his better timeform rating, and although bensalem is better handicapped, he wont be taking the spoils. the betting: i would be looking at a straight back of the package, simply because i dont know enough about the others.

15:20 2m Grd1 Hrd

Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy with solwhit ill, the clear favourite is go native. punjabi, who won last year, is not on form this season, with a relatively weak racing post rating. go native beat medermit in the champion hurdle, and has kept progressing. the ground will suit him, having been preliminarily called as soft side of good. GO NATIVE beat starluck on boxing day, on unsuitable ground, and even being quite lazy. he has proven he can cope with the hills at cheltenham, and i expect him to win here. celestial halo (who lost decisively to medamit) has a better timeform rating, as does punjabi (who also lost to medamit in that race) who boasts the best of the field, but sometimes you have to follow natural runners, and thats what i think go native is. the betting: with the odds as they are, backing go native is the only option. the high odds here not only make it a fantastic backing opportunity, but a lame one for the lay'ers. 16:00 3m7f Hcap Chs GARDE CHAMPETRE, the favourite here, boasts the best timeform rating, the best form, and arguably the benefit of a weak handicap. he is the racing post's nap, and i think he would be mine too. not because i think he is the most likely horse to win on the day, that award goes to GET ME OUT OF HERE in the first, but he provides great value for a horse who should get it done. stablemate L'ami is impressive, but has not quite lived up to expectations, and my vote goes to the favourite. the betting: lump on the favourite. dont get silly, keep it sensible, but i cant see anything else here. great value, and with little to look at for the lay, take advantage of the high priced favourite asap. 16:40 2m4f Grd2 Hrd QUEVEGA gets my vote here, over narrow favourite voler la vodette. he was impressive earlier on in the year with a 14 length victory, and Willie Mullins has spoke highly of her in interviews since. voler la vedette is a good horse, but has been running against lesser opposition, and the market tells the story i think. difficult to split them both, but i always go for experience in that case, and Quevega is the one for me. the betting: im going to stick my neck out and say lay voler la vodette here. i think the field is far too week to oppose the pair mentioned, but better be safe then sorry and guard yourself against a surprise. there may be a few to look at for the place market, but lay voler la vodette, or for those not on exchanges, back my selection with some of your winnings from garde champetre. have a great day tomorrow, and provided this is a success, ill write another report for wednesday. good luck!

[bowles10]

Re: my fancies for the festival :welcomejosh, i have moved your post to here as the Cheltenham thread is purely for those threads already started. We also have a daily meeting thread you can add your selections to if you wish. :ok Good Luck