Laying and Backing the draw

[shadowvkc]

Hi all, im pretty new to football betting.. but from what iv read the problem with laying and then backing the draw is you will always get draws which over the long term will turn your profit into a loss. Well I took the data from the Premiership 2008/2009 and ordered it into the top 5 scoring home teams and top 5 scoring away teams. I then wondered what would happen if these teams play each other.. It would be an almost sure thing that the game wouldn't be goalless. From what iv seen via my short time looking at football odds in-play, if you lay the draw at the start of the match, you only need one goal for the draw odds to change in your favour allowing your to green-out? I just wondered if anyone has tried this, or if you can see any flaws in my thinking? The home teams are: Man Utd Liverpool Man City Chelsea Arsenal The away teams are: Arsenal Liverpool Hull Chelsea Aston Villa The combinations are as follows: Man Utd vs Arsenal Man Utd vs Liverpool Man Utd vs Hull Man Utd vs Chelsea Man Utd vs Aston Villa Liverpool Vs Arsenal Liverpool vs Hull Liverpool vs Chelsea Liverpool vs Aston Villa etc etc the away games would be: Man utd vs Arsenal Liverpool vs Arsenal Man city vs Arsenal Chelsea vs Arsenal Man Utd vs Liverpool Man city vs Liverpool Chelsea vs Liverpool Arsenal vs Liverpool etc etc. I would appreciate any comments, but please dumb them down a little as iv still learning about football betting :ok

[millwallchris]

Re: Laying and Backing the draw I've been laying and backing the draw over the last 2 years and had reasonable success. I would have had more if i had been more disciplined!!!! I usually bet on games where the odds on laying the draw are 3.5 or less to minimise my liability. One of the flaws i see in your plan is when say Chelsea, Man utd, Arsenal or liverpool are playing at home to Hull. Thee odds on laying the draw are going to be (in my opinion) between 5.5 and 8.0. So say for example Man utd are at home to Hull and the odds to lay the draw are 7.0, if you stake £50 then your liability is going to be around £300. If man utd score first then everything is fine but if the underdog goes ahead (in this case hull) you have to decide whether to take a loss on your bet or hope the favourites can score at least 2 goals to win the game. Hope this makes sense and is of some help!!! Good luck:hope