Laying and Backing the draw

[shadowvkc]

Hi all, im pretty new to football betting.. but from what iv read the problem with laying and then backing the draw is you will always get draws which over the long term will turn your profit into a loss. Well I took the data from the Premiership 2008/2009 and ordered it into the top 5 scoring home teams and top 5 scoring away teams. I then wondered what would happen if these teams play each other.. It would be an almost sure thing that the game wouldn't be goalless. From what iv seen via my short time looking at football odds in-play, if you lay the draw at the start of the match, you only need one goal for the draw odds to change in your favour allowing your to green-out? I just wondered if anyone has tried this, or if you can see any flaws in my thinking? The home teams are: Man Utd Liverpool Man City Chelsea Arsenal The away teams are: Arsenal Liverpool Hull Chelsea Aston Villa The combinations are as follows: Man Utd vs Arsenal Man Utd vs Liverpool Man Utd vs Hull Man Utd vs Chelsea Man Utd vs Aston Villa Liverpool Vs Arsenal Liverpool vs Hull Liverpool vs Chelsea Liverpool vs Aston Villa etc etc the away games would be: Man utd vs Arsenal Liverpool vs Arsenal Man city vs Arsenal Chelsea vs Arsenal Man Utd vs Liverpool Man city vs Liverpool Chelsea vs Liverpool Arsenal vs Liverpool etc etc. I would appreciate any comments, but please dumb them down a little as iv still learning about football betting :ok

[millwallchris]

Re: Laying and Backing the draw I've been laying and backing the draw over the last 2 years and had reasonable success. I would have had more if i had been more disciplined!!!! I usually bet on games where the odds on laying the draw are 3.5 or less to minimise my liability. One of the flaws i see in your plan is when say Chelsea, Man utd, Arsenal or liverpool are playing at home to Hull. Thee odds on laying the draw are going to be (in my opinion) between 5.5 and 8.0. So say for example Man utd are at home to Hull and the odds to lay the draw are 7.0, if you stake £50 then your liability is going to be around £300. If man utd score first then everything is fine but if the underdog goes ahead (in this case hull) you have to decide whether to take a loss on your bet or hope the favourites can score at least 2 goals to win the game. Hope this makes sense and is of some help!!! Good luck:hope

[shadowvkc]

Re: Laying and Backing the draw Thanks for the reply. Iv only watched less than 5 matches in-play so I had no idea the odds of a draw would be so high between certain teams. Its makes sense now tho.. I think there could be value if I could find one of those matches with draw odds below 5. Also im pretty sure I read on another thread somewhere that if you wait for 20 minutes and there is no goal then the draw odds are reduced dramatically. In your opinion - as you have watched more games than me - if the odds start at 5.5 - 8.0 then after 20-30 mintues without a goal what would the draw odd be? Again I think there would be value in any of the above fixtures if at 20-30 minutes there is no goal, depending on the odds. Also Millwallchris, would you mind sharing some tips on how you select your games? Thanks ;)

[shadowvkc]

[millwallchris]

Re: Laying and Backing the draw Waiting 20 mins or 30 mins can be a good strategy as the odds do drop a fair bit by half time. If the lay draw odds were 3.4 at ko then come half time they would be between 2.6 and maybe 2.9. I had a friend who had a strategy of betting on games which were level and had only 20 or 30 mins remaining as the odds could well be around 1.7 to 1.8 and he didnt do to badly. when picking games i have a look at the odds for anything maybe 3.6 and under, then have a look at league position, goals scored, current form home and away and head to head records. Then i try to narrow that down to a short list of maybe 5 and then check team news to narrow it down to the one game i want to do. I tend to do only one game at a time then move on to the next using the same process of elimination. There are some leagues i have a tendancy not to bet on like seria B in Italy. Even though the odds for draws in these games can start as low as 3.0 you do get quite a few 0-0 draws. Also you need to decide what you are going to do if you have bet on a game at the start and at half-time its still a draw. Are you going to back the draw and take a small lose or hope there is a 2ns half goal. Good luck!!!