Kempton Sat 27th Feb

[StuSimmy]

3,000th post :ok 15:05 Kempton Madison Du Berlais can defy top weight by winning the Racing Post Chase tomorrow. First of all he has only had 2 runs over course and distance which have resulted in a 23 length victory over Denman in the Grade 2 Levy Board Chase and a 2nd place to Kauto Star in the King George (Grade 1). His record overall over 3 miles doesn't read too badly with form of 26132. His 3rd came at Haydock in a grade 1 race where he was again beaten by Kauto Star. He has now dropped down to a mark of 162 which is 3lbs above his win over Denman but 7lbs lower than his Grade 2 win at Ascot in April 2009. His form since then has read 234 off marks of 169 and 166 so he is definately in with a shout off today's mark in this Grade 3 race. Likely to be Soft going tomorrow which won't bother him as he has won in all sorts of ground. 0.5pts E/W Madison Du Berlais @ 9/1 (Ladrbokes - BOG)

[diamond1924]

Re: Kempton Sat 27th Feb 200 Kempton With so much confidence from the PL illuminati on Madision du Berlais, I feel extremely confident with a rather more modestly priced strike partner for my nap of the day and fingers crossed for a juicy pre-cheltenham double. Salden Licht is my selection, surprise, surprise I hear you say. Yes, I screwed up by napping him at tasty odds for the November handicap when he finished a creditable but fruitless fifth, but his first two runs for Alan King over hurdles have paid back any losses, and the horse still seems one to follow over timber. Cynics may initially point to his last run and point out that he laboured a bit, but further analysis may not prove so damning. Firstly, lets take the "lost shoe" into consideration. Allegedly he lost a shoe during the race. Did it make a difference, frankly, I don't know, I'm trusting that his performance diminished slightly as a result but I'm not too concerned. He battled gamely to win whilst giving away weight to the field. Second placed "Sarando" has since given the form a boost with a follow up win then last weekend, a second place to The Minack - beating Master of the Hall into a distant third. Fourth placed Hunterview won nto too. Gordon Elliot sends over a decent horse in Grey Soldier in search of decent ground. While I tend to follow GE very closely and put a lot of faith in him, I think Grey Soldier is just a little short of the class of a couple of these today, his second to Rite of Passage last time being his highlight, but I get the feeling that, after an obstruction RoP did just enough in that race. Grey Soldier will travel just off the lead and come into contention off the bridle but I think he'll be hard pushed to get his nose in front, though I'd think he's a stick on for some prize money. Vino Grigo won well at Wincanton last time and looks sure to pose the major threat to the selection. He wandered a bit one out when in front but looks to have bags of ability. His record at 2m is two from two. He's got me a bit worried actually :) Nicky Henderson sends out another dark horse, Ghimaar, a former Dermot Weld horse rated in treble figures on the flat (probably a 95 - 99 horse) and is a cliched "could be anything" horse. Worryingly, he could. But with no racecourse experience over timber I'll not be taking any chances, According still springs to mind... Frascati Park is a decent horse too but seems held on a formline with Vino Griego. One of these horses could place in the Supreme Novices. I've already backed Salden Licht e/w and feel confident that my selection can come out on top again in this interesting contest. :hope available at 5/2 on b365 this morning, backed at threes last night.