Kelso Thurs 18th Feb

[bowles10]

Hinges on an early inspection and Ground heavy

[bowles10]

Re: Kelso Thurs 18th Feb only looking at the 8 runner handicap hurdle over 2m 2f 2.10 Kelso Sotovik Has been tried over various distances from 16f through to 25f. Hasnt won over this short distance since 2005 so not expecting much having to lump round 11st 12lb on heavy ground. Has ran here twice before finishing 5th and fell at the 1st last time. Pillar of Hercules Hasnt ran since September and best on faster ground, so cant see the horse figuring in this race. Appears to stay a minimum 2m also, so the extra 2f may be a struggle. Tchikita Very inexperienced compared with the others, just 2 runs under rules in this country. Finished 3rd both times, wears a tongue strap for the 1st time and trainer in reasonable form although well backed Quick will could only finish 5th today. Has ran at the course before over this distance so no worries there. Bobs Dream Won twice in November including at this track over 1f shorter. Both were chases and Harry Haynes rode both times. This time he is on Tchikita for trainer Ewart. Gilies takes over the mount claiming 3lb. Pulled up on poor ground last time & has now had a break which may suit. Did win 1st time up this season so the break may not be a problem. Has to make its chase rating count over hurdles to make the frame. Nonotreally Hasnt ran for 326 days after 2 runs last season after 3 years out. Has 3 runs at the track previously and possibly needs better ground anyway. Ormello Normally runs at Perth and has a chase rating of 122, so could take advantage here of a much lower hurdles rating of 100. Would prefer faster ground as heavy/soft ground form reads 744420. Midnite blews Possibly prefers faster ground as soft/heavy reads 732035 and both wins are on faster ground. Both wins were in the summer months which again is a negative in these conditions. was a sprinter on the flat, so also a bit doubtful about the trip. Daniels Dream 10years old, 22 runs, 1 place seems to say it all, down to a rating of 63 now so running off 16lb higher than it should be in this race. No chance. Tissue for me is Bobs Dream 35% (15/8) Tchikita 27% (2.7/1) Ormella 18% (5.6/1) Midnite blews 7% (13/1) Sotovik 7% (13/1) Nonotreally 3% (33/1) Pillar of hercules 2% (49/1) Daniels Dream 1% (99/1) For me, Bobs Dream could be decent value tomorrow if i can get above the 2/1 mark, hoping to get 3/1