chala Posted January 23, 2005 Share Posted January 23, 2005 Re: Correct Scores Any thoughts on the Arsenal v Newcastle game thisavo Danny? Newcastle don't travel well and despite Arsenal's recent problems they usually do the business at highbury. I was thinking of backing Arsenal to win 2-0,2-1,3-0,3-1. It gets you odds of 2.578 after commission for Arsenal on current betfair prices. If you chuck in 1-0 and 3-2 aswell you get odds of 1.813 after commission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted January 23, 2005 Author Share Posted January 23, 2005 Re: Correct Scores I have my concerns about Arsenal mate. Losing to Bolton, drawing with Man City and only just managing to beat Stoke recently. And of course they ruined my first two bets on this thread. Add that to the fact that their win price is 1.55 on Betfair, I don't see it as a value bet. My thoughts are on Real Madrid v Mallorca tonight... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted January 23, 2005 Author Share Posted January 23, 2005 Re: Correct Scores Well done if you did Arsenal - nice bet. missed out on Barcelona yesterday - what was I thinking?! Real Madrid v Mallorca 1-0 21.75% @ 8.00 general 2-0 24.86% @ 7.00 Stanley 3-0 21.75% @ 8.00 general 2-1 15.82% @ 11.00 BET365 3-1 15.82% @ 11.00 Ladbrokes will return a 1.74 bet instead of a 1.25 bet Good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wintz Posted January 23, 2005 Share Posted January 23, 2005 Re: Correct Scores Stuck another few pounds on the Real match and scooped more winnings for this weekend, have to say I love this system. Thanks to all the guys who go to the effort to chose the matches and teams... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iainfitzy Posted January 23, 2005 Share Posted January 23, 2005 Re: Correct Scores .. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iainfitzy Posted January 23, 2005 Share Posted January 23, 2005 Re: Correct Scores .. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chala Posted January 24, 2005 Share Posted January 24, 2005 Re: Correct Scores Darn it, If I'd chucked in Arsenal 1-0 as well I would have doubled my money, but greed got the better with me and I only covered 4 scores in the end. Still very happy with how the systems going though! Iainfitzy, I think you've picked up on something there, if the home team are tight at the back you can cover even less scores and gain a better price. Although I'd say you'd be pretty safe to back Chelski when they play away, 1-0,2-0,3-0,4-0,2-1 should pay quite nicely for most of their away games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted January 24, 2005 Author Share Posted January 24, 2005 Re: Correct Scores Real Madrid 3 Real Mallorca 1 :clap Profit of 7.4pts from a 10pt stake. Thanks for your kind words people, lets hope the good run can continue. I find this difficult to say but ideally this thread is supposed to be a place for my picks and results, and any comments and discussion should really be taking place under the thread in the Britain lounge, as also verified by Komp. I really appreciate your comments and other ideas but it would be easier for me and others viewing the thread, to keep this particular post to the official selections and results. I hope this doesn't sound offensive to anyone that has contributed so far. Thanks again. Starting Bank 100points Current Bank 124points Total Staked 90points Number of Bets 9 Winning Bets 6 Strike Rate 66.67% Yield 26.67% Profit/Loss +24 points Cheers Danny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joe mavis Posted January 27, 2005 Share Posted January 27, 2005 Re: Correct Scores So what do we think for this weekend lads i have not had a chance to buy RFO???? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mydogdylan Posted January 27, 2005 Share Posted January 27, 2005 Re: Correct Scores Pardon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joe mavis Posted January 27, 2005 Share Posted January 27, 2005 Re: Correct Scores Pardon What??????????????????? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted January 29, 2005 Author Share Posted January 29, 2005 Re: Correct Scores OK.... ? Arsenal v Wolves (FA Cup) 1.23 Having to stick with Betfair this week, I can't for the life of me get Oddschecker to work?... 1-0 22.58% @ 8.2 2-0 24.36% @ 7.6 2-1 16.10% @ 11.5 3-0 20.13% @ 9.2 3-1 16.83% @ 11.00 = 1.85 might have a look at Rangers later... Danny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted January 29, 2005 Author Share Posted January 29, 2005 Re: Correct Scores Arsenal 2 Wolves 0 :clap only 1.77 after commission, I only wish I'd hunted around for some better prices. Starting bank 100pts Current bank 131.7pts Staked 100pts Bets 10 Wins/Loss 7/3 Strike rate 70% Yield 31.7% Profit 31.7pts (well done if you did Rangers too!) Danny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted January 30, 2005 Author Share Posted January 30, 2005 Re: Correct Scores Chelsea v Birmingham Not sure this will be a total demolition so I'm including the 2-1 and 3-1, giving Birmingham a bit of credit. I have recently joined Sporting Odds as they are consistenly showing good prices. 1-0 21.29% @ 8.00 Tote 2-0 26.20% @ 6.50 Tote 3-0 21.29% @ 8.00 general 2-1 17.03% @ 10.00 Stanley/Bet365 3-1 14.19% @ 12.00 S Odds equates to a 1.70 bet instead of 1.25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted January 30, 2005 Author Share Posted January 30, 2005 Re: Correct Scores Chelsea 2 Birmingham 0 :D Profit of 7.0pts today and system going well. Starting Bank 100 pts Current Bank 138.7 pts Staked 110 pts Bets 11 Wins/Loss 8/3 Strike Rate 72.72% Yield 35.18% Profit 38.7 pts That's all for today folks Danny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruise Pristene Posted January 30, 2005 Share Posted January 30, 2005 Re: Correct Scores this is great danny, everyones doing it now! what happened to not to lose doubles this wkend? had to make my own in the end! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted January 30, 2005 Author Share Posted January 30, 2005 Re: Correct Scores Cheers BP! It's nice to see 'everyone' is using this method. Hopefully it'll pay off for them too eh? ;) In fairness the NTLdoubles needed a re-think and I've been focusing all my attention to my correct scores. See ya around Danny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted February 4, 2005 Author Share Posted February 4, 2005 Re: Correct Scores Manchester Utd v Birmingham (1.30 SPOdds) 1-0 21.73% @ 8.00 WH/Coral/Game 2-0 24.84% @ 7.00 Stanley/BlueSQ 3-0 19.32% @ 9.00 Game 2-1 18.30% @ 9.50 SPOdds 3-1 15.81% @ 11.00 SPOdds Equates to 1.74 Danny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr onemore Posted February 5, 2005 Share Posted February 5, 2005 Re: Correct Scores Danny - have you kept a record of what your returns would have been just backing your selections with a normal single, rather than distributing the money over some correct scores? In the long run, I'd expect that you'd find the single bets will outperform your correct score system. My reasoning is because I believe the bookies overround on correct scores is more than on match betting - you would have to add all the possible correct scores odds to find the overround. I haven't checked this myself, but suspect correct scores markets must be around 6 to 10 percent overrounded, as opposed to about the 2 to 3 percent overround you can find by shopping around for match odds. You are choosing a subset of correct scores from a book that is more overrounded than simple match betting. Taken to extreme, if you tried backing all the correct scores relating to a home win, the odds you would get would be less than the match odds offered elsewhere. The fact that you are choosing a subset of the all the scores relating to a win, and backing varying stakes to alter proportion on each score does not negate the fact that the value you are getting for each bet to make your combination bet is reduced. This does not mean I don't think you can make a profit here - you are achieving a very high strike rate using both single, and combination correct scores - it's just that in the long run I would expect you to make better returns with level stakes on the singles... For the record (but please check this, I was hurrying a bit), from the info in this thread I make the respective records so far: Your system: 12 bets (9 W / 3 L) +38.7 profit , 10pt stakes Level singles: 12 bets (10 W / 2 L) +21.2 profit , 10pt stakes (in your records I think you have cheated yourself!! You give 8W/3L but I made it a better 9W/3L though I agree with your returns...) Anyway - good luck with the selections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted February 5, 2005 Author Share Posted February 5, 2005 Re: Correct Scores Mr Onemore, you're quite right. I was robbing myself of a winner there. Manchester Utd 2 Birmingham 0 A profit of 7.4 points Starting Bank 100points Current Bank 146.1points Staked 130 points Bets 13 Wins 10/ Losers 3 Strike Rate 76.9% Yield 35.5% Profit 46.1 points Chelsea tomorrow... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted February 6, 2005 Author Share Posted February 6, 2005 Re: Correct Scores Mr Onemore, your suggestion that backing the home team to win outright will recover more profit than the correct score method used is not looking too good at the moment. I think you may have errored somewhere in your calculations... Using the best WIN OUTRIGHT prices available for the 13 bets I have selected so far and betting the same 10 points for each bet: Arsenal v Southampton (LOST) -10.0 Arsenal v WBA (LOST) -10.0 Liverpool v Watford (WON @ 1.29) +2.9 Rangers v Dunf (WON @ 1.11) +1.1 Barcelona v Real Soc (WON @ 1.37) +3.7 Dunf v East fife (WON @ 1.30) +3.0 Exeter v Man Utd (WON @ 1.10) +1.0 Chelsea v Porstsmouth (WON @ 1.22) +2.2 Celtic v Motherwell (WON @ 1.14) +1.4 Real Madrid v Real Mall (WON @ 1.25) +2.5 Arsenal v Wolves (WON @ 1.23) +2.3 Chelsea v Birmingham (WON @ 1.25) +2.5 Man Utd v Birmingham (WON @ 1.30) +3.0 Total profit 5.6 points Yield 4.3% At the moment the correct score method is showing a profit of more than 8 times this amount and a much better yield. Time will tell I guess... DC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted February 6, 2005 Author Share Posted February 6, 2005 Re: Correct Scores Bet 14 Chelsea v Man City The bookies have been quite stingy for this game. We can convert 1.25 into 1.70 so it just qualifies... 1-0 21.29% @ 8.00 Tote 2-0 26.20% @ 6.5 Tote 3-0 21.29% @ 8.00 General 2-1 17.03% @ 10.00 Tote/SOdds/B365 3-1 14.19% @ 12.00 SOdds Cheers Danny ps if anyone is thinking of doing Barcelona tonight I'd take the 1.4 on the straight home win. The best I can do is convert to 1.79 which doesn't seem worth the risk to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mr onemore Posted February 6, 2005 Share Posted February 6, 2005 Re: Correct Scores Yes - your numbers are right now. But the argument still holds (I believe) - though a little research shows the differences ar not as large as I suspected (long, long time since I bothered looking at correct score markets) A quick flick through Betfair shows Match markets to be overrounded by about 1%, and correct scores markets by about 2.5%. Markets where there is a lot of volumes show smaller differences - the Chelsea - Man City game at 100.9% and 101.4% respectively. All games I looked at had the match market with less overround than the correct score market. I know you are shopping around for your odds, and that works favourably for both ways of course, so the difference in methods might even be smaller - but I maintain still in favour of my argument. We're talking long run here - for instance after a hundred bets about a 10 pts difference in favour of match bets over correct scores, given the 10 pt stake you are using. Anyway - was just a thought - and as you say time will tell. You're making some good selections and you've had a very good run there so far, 9 in a row is it!! Good luck with this... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Getting Better Posted February 7, 2005 Share Posted February 7, 2005 Re: Correct Scores Are there any websites where you can get historic prices? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raylin Posted February 7, 2005 Share Posted February 7, 2005 Re: Correct Scores detdevil give historical odds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Getting Better Posted February 7, 2005 Share Posted February 7, 2005 Re: Correct Scores Cheers Raylin, I worked out that you meant betdevil rather than detdevil, freudian slip?! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted February 14, 2005 Author Share Posted February 14, 2005 Re: Correct Scores Bet 15 Arsenal v Crystal Palace (1.23) 1-0 21.75% @ 8.00 2-0 24.86% @ 7.00 3-0 21.75% @ 8.00 2-1 15.82% @ 11.00 3-1 15.82% @ 11.00 =1.74 DC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted February 15, 2005 Author Share Posted February 15, 2005 Re: Correct Scores Bets 14 and 15 both went down :o Chelsea 0-0 and Arsenal 5-1 (a winner had you just backed the home win) Start Bank 100 points Current Bank 126.1 points Staked 150 points Bets 15 Won 10 Lost 5 SR 66.7% Yield 17.4% Profit +26.1 points Straight home wins return a loss of 4.17 points, so still ahead using this method. DC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoCelestial Posted February 25, 2005 Share Posted February 25, 2005 Re: Correct Scores So what happened to this thread? I actually have it bookmarked so do keep it going ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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