An Idea for a MONSTER Group of Expert Punters

[snyena]

Finding Value through Superior Knowledge of a Sport/Team/League I think I have a very good knowledge of football (I have been following it for ages and I have been playing it myself so I might understand a bit more of what is happening on the pitch than the average punter). This has lead me to an idea. I believe that excellent knowledge of a sport, team, players, or a league could be one of the keys to _extremely_ profitable betting (15%+ yield). I am by no means saying that statistical or mathematical analyses are useless, in fact a succesful punter with superior knowledge of some sort has to be able to look at the odds and tell whether they represent value, only the calculation (or rather an estimate) is done in the head. To make myself fully clear, I am not saying the traditional methods of pre-match analysis are not good. People like Joe are doing an excellent job. However, there are situations when such analyses do not highlight an excellent bet opportunity. Yet, every so often I find a price that is ridiculously high. My theory is that expert punters and bookmakers BOTH use similar statistical and mathematical tools to justify their bets/prices and that is why certain analyses do not identify such excellent betting opportunities. In other words, there are variables that cannot be included in the calculation very well, there's simply too many of them (mood, style of play, weather, playing surface, relevance or irrelevance of the past matches for the outcome, injured players, insider information, to name just a few). Why am I writing this? Let's get back to my idea: In the future, I'd like to see the creation of a platform where people with superior, in-depth knowledge (perhaps even insider information) and critical judgement could exchange their betting tips. And I mean true experts, not "mug punters". Critical judgement is needed because I don't need punters who can guess the most likely outcome; most people can do that. I need punters who can identify that overpriced match, it does come every now and then. A platform is needed for this because one can not follow too many teams or sports closely, there isn't enough time. Perhaps this idea is in principle similar to tipster services, only I don't like the concept of PAYING for my betting. Instead, this could work on an exchange basis. People participating in the exchange could be sorted into various cathegories. I for one would be looking at profitability and robustness as the two main criteria (a short successful run doesn't mean very much). This way, a powerful group of experts on various teams/sports/leagues could be created and the synergic effect would be immense. The benefit of this would be more free time for the expert punters (they only have to concentrate on their very own narrow niche) and extremely high profitability (since every expert is getting quality tips in exchange for his own tips). The idea behind the creation of groups or performance cathegories is that the information should be not distributed to everyone (this could destroy the market). Also, the vision of receiving excellent betting tips should give one an incentive to produce good picks too. I might have reinvented the wheel, maybe something similar to what I described above already exists. If not, what does everyone think about my idea? Is it applicable? Is anyone up for this? :-) For starters, I could offer expert info on Slovak teams and players, a bit of second-hand inside information on Middlesbrough FC, and good knowledge of international ice-hockey.

[Dzordz]

Re: An Idea for a MONSTER Group of Expert Punters Hello Snyena, It seems as though we are both pretty new to these boards :) I have been lurking on PL for years just not having time to get into more disscusion and being tied up on another board. What you are saying is a good idea, but who are we to trust that one is an expert? It would take a year or two of proofing. Looking from my angle I am a statistical type of a punter but I always use my hunch to a great extent not willing to risk on pure stats. Even than I dont like loosing cash on someone elses advice!!! I always have a look at what people are saying but do a double check on everything I might consider puting on my betting slip. Perhaps the biggest problem of boards similar to this and this one also is a lot of people who try and be big time punters and actualy dont put cash on what they suggest (no I am not thinking of people who openly admit they are testing systems). What we might do what would be better is make an spreadsheet or something and have everybody take 2-3 leagues just to type in results and make a database of all the stats which could be used by all. :) I am trying to program such a spreadsheet last week or so but with my knowledge of these things its gonna take some time :)

[snyena]

Re: An Idea for a MONSTER Group of Expert Punters Hi Dzordz, thank you for your reply. Yup, I am fairly new to this board and fairly new to Internet betting as well. Since the kind of bets I have in mind do not occur very frequently, you are very right in saying that it might take a year or even two to find an expert. But I have all the time in the world for this. I do require robustness (a large number of successful bets - at least 100, even though 300 seems to be the general consensus on here) and excellent profitability before I dare label someone an "expert". The more bets you have from one person the more likely it is his good results are not just a lucky streak. Of course, you should never trust anyone 100%. As you say, it is always a good idea to double check and find your own information before placing a bet. With the right people, my system would generate good tips and narrow down the possibilities for the other group members (thus saving them a lot of time when searching for good bets). From now on I will be thinking about a way to implement this idea of mine. I like simple things and "usability" is the keyword. Perhaps I will just create an interface where people can enter their tips when they feel they have a very secure and overpriced bet (something I try to do in my "snyena" system... not from the start, but now anyway). I'll see what I can do, damn work and other crap is taking too much time but I really want to do this, so I will... eventually. :) As for your spreadsheet idea, I am too lazy to type in data manually but I do like the thought of writing a program for it. Have you seen DataPunters Java course in the Techie Forum? I find it very interesting and I think you will too. He is teaching people how to extract data from HTML pages and insert them into spreadsheets. I have already downlaoded Java, now I need to move my lazy butt and read through the course. :)

[Dzordz]

Re: An Idea for a MONSTER Group of Expert Punters hehehehehe I am too lazy to learn computers :) I think I am getting at something with my spreadsheet :) So I might even be able to take care of 6-7 leagues :) Snyena where are you from? I am from Serbia and Montenegro and here we have games nobody online has :) like 0-1 goals and 4-6 goals and 7+ :) we even have more goals in a half :) crazy country crazy people crazy bookies :)

[snyena]

Re: An Idea for a MONSTER Group of Expert Punters I am from Czechoslovakia. :-) Been moving between Sweden and Slovakia lately.

[Dzordz]

Re: An Idea for a MONSTER Group of Expert Punters I know the pick you are talking about :) I used to work in a bookie (not making odds) and I knew everything there is to know and you wouldnt bealive how much info I had being such a talkative person and all. In my year working there I managed to come across 6-7 games that were fixed, we even once had two guys there who played for Debrecen in Hungary and they told us it was fixed :) Information is the mother of success in punting. SO LETS BUST THE BOOKIES!!!!!!!