An Idea for a MONSTER Group of Expert Punters

[snyena]

Finding Value through Superior Knowledge of a Sport/Team/League I think I have a very good knowledge of football (I have been following it for ages and I have been playing it myself so I might understand a bit more of what is happening on the pitch than the average punter). This has lead me to an idea. I believe that excellent knowledge of a sport, team, players, or a league could be one of the keys to _extremely_ profitable betting (15%+ yield). I am by no means saying that statistical or mathematical analyses are useless, in fact a succesful punter with superior knowledge of some sort has to be able to look at the odds and tell whether they represent value, only the calculation (or rather an estimate) is done in the head. To make myself fully clear, I am not saying the traditional methods of pre-match analysis are not good. People like Joe are doing an excellent job. However, there are situations when such analyses do not highlight an excellent bet opportunity. Yet, every so often I find a price that is ridiculously high. My theory is that expert punters and bookmakers BOTH use similar statistical and mathematical tools to justify their bets/prices and that is why certain analyses do not identify such excellent betting opportunities. In other words, there are variables that cannot be included in the calculation very well, there's simply too many of them (mood, style of play, weather, playing surface, relevance or irrelevance of the past matches for the outcome, injured players, insider information, to name just a few). Why am I writing this? Let's get back to my idea: In the future, I'd like to see the creation of a platform where people with superior, in-depth knowledge (perhaps even insider information) and critical judgement could exchange their betting tips. And I mean true experts, not "mug punters". Critical judgement is needed because I don't need punters who can guess the most likely outcome; most people can do that. I need punters who can identify that overpriced match, it does come every now and then. A platform is needed for this because one can not follow too many teams or sports closely, there isn't enough time. Perhaps this idea is in principle similar to tipster services, only I don't like the concept of PAYING for my betting. Instead, this could work on an exchange basis. People participating in the exchange could be sorted into various cathegories. I for one would be looking at profitability and robustness as the two main criteria (a short successful run doesn't mean very much). This way, a powerful group of experts on various teams/sports/leagues could be created and the synergic effect would be immense. The benefit of this would be more free time for the expert punters (they only have to concentrate on their very own narrow niche) and extremely high profitability (since every expert is getting quality tips in exchange for his own tips). The idea behind the creation of groups or performance cathegories is that the information should be not distributed to everyone (this could destroy the market). Also, the vision of receiving excellent betting tips should give one an incentive to produce good picks too. I might have reinvented the wheel, maybe something similar to what I described above already exists. If not, what does everyone think about my idea? Is it applicable? Is anyone up for this? :-) For starters, I could offer expert info on Slovak teams and players, a bit of second-hand inside information on Middlesbrough FC, and good knowledge of international ice-hockey.

[Dzordz]

Re: An Idea for a MONSTER Group of Expert Punters Hello Snyena, It seems as though we are both pretty new to these boards :) I have been lurking on PL for years just not having time to get into more disscusion and being tied up on another board. What you are saying is a good idea, but who are we to trust that one is an expert? It would take a year or two of proofing. Looking from my angle I am a statistical type of a punter but I always use my hunch to a great extent not willing to risk on pure stats. Even than I dont like loosing cash on someone elses advice!!! I always have a look at what people are saying but do a double check on everything I might consider puting on my betting slip. Perhaps the biggest problem of boards similar to this and this one also is a lot of people who try and be big time punters and actualy dont put cash on what they suggest (no I am not thinking of people who openly admit they are testing systems). What we might do what would be better is make an spreadsheet or something and have everybody take 2-3 leagues just to type in results and make a database of all the stats which could be used by all. :) I am trying to program such a spreadsheet last week or so but with my knowledge of these things its gonna take some time :)