"Corner spreads" or "an attempt to dethrone muppet and his holy grail"

[BeXXs]

First of all: Muppet, the title is no offense, it just makes the thread look more interesting. And, in some way, its a kind of ad for your thread, isnt it? :tongue2 I have made a system for the corner spread market that i want to share here. Its based on a corner equity (CE) that i compute by analyzing the last 32 games of the two involved teams. I did not backtest it regarding actual odds, but my analysis gave me a coefficient of determination of 95% (i compared my CE with the mean number of corners taken in all matches with this CE). Therefore i will compute a difference by applying (diff) = |1-(CE)/(odds)| and look at the profit via a) selecting all value bets b) selecting only value bets with a difference of 5% or more. This is a paper trial. I start with a bank of 100 pts and stake 1 pt on each selection. I will measure the success in two ways (apart of the overall profit, obv.): 1) Profit per Bet 2) Yield, computed as in Muppets thread: (Yield) = (Profit won)/(Profit won+Profit lossed) Lets hope this works out. EDIT: Some points i forgot to mention: - I only place bets in Bundesliga, Premier League, Primera Division, Serie A and Ligue 1 - I got the coeffeizient of determination by taking all CE's for which there were more than 100 games with this CE. These CE's are 9.5 to 11.6, and i will only bet on matches with a CE in this interval (this eliminates more than half of the matches of Ligue 1). There was one statistical outliner at 11.3 (with a mean number of corners of 11.68) that i have omitted to get the stated coeffizient. Therefore it might be interesting to take a closer look at games with a CE of 11.3.

[BeXXs]

Re: "Corner spreads" or "an attempt to dethrone muppet and his holy grail" The first selection is a PL match this evening.

all differences

Difference >= 5%

No

Date

Lge

Home

Away

CE

Odds

Diff.

Selection

Stake

Result

P/L

Bank

Pr./Bet

Yield

Bank

Pr./Bet

Yield

St.

100

100

1

Tottenham

Fulham

10.8

11.4

6%

Sell

1