Jase82 Posted January 25, 2010 Share Posted January 25, 2010 On to my 2nd theory that I want to try out until the end of the season. Something I've noticed recently is that when the Asian line for and away side is set @ + 0.25, and the odds are between 1.60 - 1.78'ish for that same side, the home side often either win or draw. I think this is because where there is an expectation that the away side is more than capable of at least picking up a point, the resulting selection often appears to swing the other way, in a game usually between two sides that are evenly matched on paper. Reason for looking at this is that I had expected several sides to pick up at least a draw away from home in the FA Cup. Ipswich away at Southampton. Doncaster away at Derby. Sunderland away at Portsmouth. Burnley away at Reading. All home sides won. You could argue that there were a couple of late goals in these fixtures, but the main point is that the away side did not fare anywhere near as well as I had expected them to. I've seen this happen a lot this season where the odds are around the 1.60 - 1.78 mark for a + 0.25. This is the perfect opportunity to see if there is anything in it. This will just be a paper trail until the end of the season to see if it brings up anything worth getting serious with. I will only be doing this for the English Leagues. EPL - BSP. To clarify, where the Asian line for the away side is set @ + 0.25, and the odds are between 1.60 - 1.78, I will take the opposing handicap for the home side. Only if the odds on the home side are set at about 2.10 +. Hopefully, this makes sense! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted January 25, 2010 Author Share Posted January 25, 2010 Re: The anti +0.25 thread Barnsley - 0.25 @ 2.26 V Liecester. Peterborough - 0.25 @ 2.23 V Preston North End. Plymouth Argyle - 0.25 @ 2.21 V Derby County. Dagenham & Redbridge - 0.25 @ 2.22 V Notts County. Accrington Stanley - 0.25 @ 2.23 V Aldershot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted January 26, 2010 Author Share Posted January 26, 2010 Re: The anti +0.25 thread Barnsley - 0.25 @ 2.26 V Liecester. :) Peterborough - 0.25 @ 2.23 V Preston North End. :wall Plymouth Argyle - 0.25 @ 2.21 V Derby County. :) Dagenham & Redbridge - 0.25 @ 2.22 V Notts County. :wall Accrington Stanley - 0.25 @ 2.23 V Aldershot. :) Three out of five isn't bad. Peterborough were well on top too before Preston scored in the 35th minute. Dagenham were just well below par. I think I'll continue this because there is definitely something in it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted January 27, 2010 Author Share Posted January 27, 2010 Re: The anti +0.25 thread One for tonight. Scunthorpe United - 0.25 @ 2.35 v Sheffield Wednesday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted January 27, 2010 Author Share Posted January 27, 2010 Re: The anti +0.25 thread Scunthorpe win, which makes it 4 out of 6. Not a bad result. I'm sure a lot of punters would have been on Wednesday after their recent results. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofcourseitwas Posted January 28, 2010 Share Posted January 28, 2010 Re: The anti +0.25 thread Nice start Jase. :clap have you done any backtesting for this? should be pretty easy on football-data. have you looked at any leagues other than English? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted January 28, 2010 Author Share Posted January 28, 2010 Re: The anti +0.25 thread Nice start Jase. :clap have you done any backtesting for this? should be pretty easy on football-data. have you looked at any leagues other than English? No, I have not done any backtesting because it would be extremely difficult to find out which matches were available @ + 0.25 for the odds mentioned above. I haven't looked at any other leagues yet either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofcourseitwas Posted January 28, 2010 Share Posted January 28, 2010 Re: The anti +0.25 thread hmmm. although if you look at it, wouldn't this system just be taking the home side every time the handicap was set at level ball? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted January 30, 2010 Author Share Posted January 30, 2010 Re: The anti +0.25 thread hmmm. although if you look at it' date=' wouldn't this system just be taking the home side every time the handicap was set at level ball?[/quote'] Not really. As I explained, I am only taking the home side if the odds for + 0.25 on the away side are set @ between 1.60 and 1.78. It also has to be the main Asian line offered through multiple firms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted January 30, 2010 Author Share Posted January 30, 2010 Re: The anti +0.25 thread Fulham - 0.25 @ 2.36 v Aston Villa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted January 30, 2010 Author Share Posted January 30, 2010 Re: The anti +0.25 thread Fulham V Villa was a loser. One for tomorrow. Arsenal - 0.25 @ 2.22 v Manchester United. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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