ATP and WTA Outright System

[Arantxa]

Hi @all great stuff here as always. I created an Outright "System" for this year and want to blog it here. It´s not really a system though, just made an excel sheet that takes every match till the final into account, so also the "unexpected" value of a selection.... To maybe explain this a bit one could mention the tournament last week where Söderling went out to Ginepri 1st round. Many people ( i used to do it too ) look at a draw like this: P.e. for Wawrinka Outright Ok Wawrinka will face Bopanna where he should be 85% Favorite, then he will likely face Ruseel ( 80% favo ) and then Berrer ( 75% favo ), in the semis he will play Söderling ( 40% Outsider ) and in the final maybe Cilic ( also 40% Outsider ) --> then you calculate 0,85*0,80*0,75*0,4*0,4= 0,08--> Odds around 12 should be value. BUT you underestimate the fact, that Söderling could lose first round!! or 2nd round!! or quarters!! BEFORE facing Wawrinka... So my system calculates in a nutshell if you have a 4 player tournament: P.e. Semis Söderling 88% Florian Mayer 12% Federer 80% Tsonga 20% I create a matrix: with probabilities for each player against each: Söderling chance against: Mayer 88% Federer 25% Tsonga 50% Mayer chance against: ( against Söderling already above 1-0,88=12%) Federer 7% Tsonga 18% Federer against: Tsonga 80% Tsonga against: already given by the 3 above Instinctically you would calculate Outright for Söderling: Beating Mayer 0,88 and then he has to beat Federer 0,25 -->Odds around @4,50 With my system it goes for a Söderling Outright: Beating Mayer 0,88*X X= Chance of Federer being in the Final (0,8)*Chance of Söderling beating Federer ( 0,25 )+ Chance of Tsonga being in the final ( 0,2 )* Chance of Söderling beating Tsonga ( 0,50 ) X=0,3 Odds for Söderling= 1/(0,88*0,3)= @3,80 So the difference of only one uncertain round is already significant and as you can imagine if you calculate the whole tournament like this, there can be found some value.... Has anybody of you thought about a similar approach yet?? Would be interesting to know for me:clap I will start with a Bank of 100, lets see how it turns out...

[Arantxa]

Just copy&pasted this from the "Other Sports Section" Unfortunately Lisicki has already lost 7/5 in the 3rd and Andreev 7/6 in the 3rd, while Czink went down to Dulko, so this 3 selections are already lost, but i will still count them to start with this thread to stay consistent and honest...:ok To resume this: Most Odds are from Pinnacle.... Bank 100 Sydney ATP: Monfils 3/10 @4,30 Hewitt 2/10 @7,25 Troicki 1,5/10 @21,25 Andreev 1/10 @23 Sydney WTA: Kuznetsova 1,5/10 @10,0 Lisicki 1/10 @34 Hobart WTA: Czink 2/10 @26 Auckland ATP: Nalbandian 1,5/10 @17 VC Ferrero 2,5/10 @6,60 Montanes 0,5/10 @41 bet365 Gicquel 1/10 @35 Staked: 17,5 Units Best of luck:cheers Oh i forgot to say if there are any profitable opportunities in my view to hedge a bet, e.g. if Gicquel reaches the final or so, i will probably do so, depending on my view and the bank situation...