Saturday College

[Guest Carmine Bellini]

Saturday is going to be one of the biggest days in college basketball and I think it truly marks the first day of the serious college basketball season. With apologies to the NHL and other sports, college basketball will be the big money producer this weekend with the NBA on break for the all-star game. The overnight lines are usually out midmorning for the games on the next day but for the college basketball games on Saturday the lines did not come out until Friday evening. This is the time of the year when teams are playing in conference and last minute positioning for the big NCAA tournament so the key will be to find out who needs the wins, what kind of game they played in the last time out and who they are playing down the road. With 100 + games, it will be a challenge to find the best value and the lessons but there are plenty of them and it should lead to a great Saturday! I have already delivered the lessons to the students and will have time for the next few hours to discuss Saturday’s games and share some things to keep your eye on. If you have input on any games for Saturday please feel free to post them here and maybe we can start some great discussion for the college weekend. Carmine

[Guest Carmine Bellini]

Re: Saturday College Villanova +2 Over West Virginia This is a lesson play for Saturday and it was a hard lesson to learn as I was on Villanova to get the win last game against Providence last game out. However that loss plays into the lesson #1 for this game. Play on any team who is off a very bad loss Now this lesson is a bit sketchy because you have to determine what a bad loss is, because it would seem all losses are bad. So how do you determine what a bad loss is? Research is the answer. Just a quick look at the recap of the last game against Providence will give you many reasons why this qualifies as a very bad loss. The Wildcats were humiliated by #21 Providence at the Pavilion on Wednesday night, 100-74, in the worst loss ever suffered by a Villanova squad in the 18 years of the building's existence. It also marked only the second time a VU opponent had reached the century mark there, which hadn't happened since December 12, 1990, when the La Salle of Lionel Simmons outlasted Rollie Massimino's 'Cats, 102-94. It was also PC's most lopsided victory EVER over Villanova, in 77 games, in a series, which dates back to 1936. (Also a note: remember this game if Villanova runs into Providence again anytime soon as revenge will be a great angle) This brings us to lesson #2 for this game Play against a team that shot above their average from the floor by at least 5% points The theory here is that the team will not be able to duplicate such a great shooting performance in the next game out and the other team could take advantage. West Virginia shot very well from the floor in the last game they played and this will be hard to duplicate. They still shot 50.9 percent from the field, including 45.2 percent from three-point range. St. John's was only able to get as close as 17 points in the second half, and that came on the first basket after the intermission. It was even more amazing what they did from behind the arc. West Virginia set a new school and WVU Coliseum record for made three-pointers in a game. The Mountaineers were 14-of-31 from long range. The previous school record for made three-pointers in a game was 13 in a 79-65 loss Feb. 2, 2000, at Notre Dame. Look for Villanova to rebound and win this game outright against a West Virginia team that will have trouble scoring over the points and will turn the ball over against the Cats. NOTE: Lessons are not automatic plays in every game that they are valid in. You must still do your homework and look to make sure there is other evidence that supports your lesson before you make the play. Carmine