Wolverhampton - Mon 28th Dec

[fintron]

4.45 Wolv Matsunosuke - was in great form at start of year when landing hat-trick, capped off with listed level win, pushing his rating up to 106. Versatile track wise and fast enough to be effective over 5-6 but has shown little on turf this season and would still have to be backed with some hope even on last few AW runs. Drop in mark and return to handicaps may help but would need a fast pace to chase. Five Star Junior - useful hold up performer that has improved 25 lbs ish this calendar year and aquitted himself well when third in polytrack conditions race, latest, behind Global City. Is a course and distance winner too. Rain Rush - Irish raider that has shown ability on artifical surface back home at Dundalk. Decent third off 100 back home, latest, gets in off 1 lb lower mark today although this trip perhaps on sharp side (all wins at 7-9f). Ebraam - claimed from Paul Howling and ran above form when well positioned in behind Jaconet in listed race at Lingfield on debut for Mike Murphy. Was then beaten at long odds on in a claimer therafter when not fully interested but has since been picked up by Sean Curran, whose record with new purchases is impressive. Car park draw no help from 12 though. Smokey Ryder - returns from 112 day break but needs to have improved for it as 2009 form less than impressive. Is 3 lb lower than last AW run when 10th of 12 at Kempton in March but is a course and distance winner and a possibility from a pace angle, although needs to have improved drastically in time off track. Imprimis Tagula - has been in the form of his life of late winning three from four, including one on polytrack, and not being disgraced when second to Seek The Fair Land on the other start. Has the pace to be effective over this trip and although a career best needed turned out under a penalty, the way he thrashed two solid Southwell yardsticks in Ingleby Arch and Nightjar reads exceptionally well. If as strong on this surface, looks tough to beat if can cross over from wide draw. Earlsmedic - new, more prominent tactics have worked well for the Stuart Williams-trained gelding the last twice and won under this apprentice at Kempton when last seen. He's up 4 lbs on his last run but has the rail draw and expected to go well. Flowing Cape - looked a smart AW performer in the first third of the year, showing a good turn of foot to win back to back races here in February. Connections toyed with the idea of stepping him up in trip (he's by decent miler Cape Cross) and he ran in the Lincoln trial over the extended mile at Wolv but didn't get home. Since then he's regressed and instead of stepping up into the listed level performer he could have easily become he has been getting tonked in all-weather handicaps. Sliding down the handicap and best watched for now. Orpenindeed - consistent all-weather animal that hails from the inform yard of Marco Botti. 4 lbs higher than course and distance win here in October and ran respectably when outpaced over shorter when last seen. Doesn't have as much in hand at these weights as some but likely to be well positioned come the finish if things get tactical and not ruled out. Capone - beaten by Ealsmedic at Kempton in November (4 lbs worse off today too) but has won since and is turned out under a penalty here and open to more improvement on this surface. Niggly doubt that may be staying on all too late today though. Tom's Laughter - placed in Group company on turf last term and is a multiple polytrack winner from earlier in career. Has struggled for the best part this year though, was forced wide turning for home when well beaten by Fullandby but had a couple of chances since and too risky at the minute. Mrs Penny - open to more improvement but doesn't seem overly consistent and this course and distance winner is equipped with first time blinkers today to try aid concentration. My prices to beat: Imprimis Tagula 11/2, Earlsmedic 13/2, Capone 7/1, Orpenindeed 8/1, Five Star Junior 17/2, Ebraam 11/1, Matsunosuke 13/1, Rain Rush 14/1, Flowing Cape 16/1, Tom's Laugher 20/1, Smokey Ryder 22/1, Mrs Penny 25/1

[fintron]

Re: Wolverhampton - Mon 28th Dec

4.45 Wolv My prices to beat: Imprimis Tagula 11/2, Earlsmedic 13/2, Capone 7/1, Orpenindeed 8/1, Five Star Junior 17/2, Ebraam 11/1, Matsunosuke 13/1, Rain Rush 14/1, Flowing Cape 16/1, Tom's Laugher 20/1, Smokey Ryder 22/1, Mrs Penny 25/1

Orpenindeed (who was 7/1 at the point of withdrawl) is now a non-runner but even in the reformed market Five Star Junior is 12/1. I think that is a very good price as it was a 2.8 % discrepency even before the non-runner. 12/1 VC Bet, 2 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).