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Chep 28th Dec - Inc Welsh National


fintron

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Re: Welsh National It looks a tricky race to untangle but there are plenty of interesting runners. Old Benny had a long break during which the handicapper dropped him 13 lbs. He made his comeback over hurdles, and it will be interesting to see if he needs a few more runs to peak again or can act now off what looks a good mark. Dream Alliance too, was second to Denman in the 2007 Hennessy, did nothing but flop in 2008, but returned from a big break to place over hurdles here when tiring last time out. he runs off the same mark as that Newbury second. Scottish National winner Iris de Balme raced from out of the handicap but won that day and followed it up with a solid effort when fourth in the Bet 365 Gold Cup, again racing from out of the handicap. His mark has gone up properly now but he is still only 1 lb higher. The question mark is whether the trainer has him ready after over 600 days off. Eider winner Merigo will strip fitter for his last run when a well beaten seventh (behind SIlver By Nature). The favourite is the well backed Le Beau Bai, who hacked up here over shorter recently and gets into the race under a 4 lb penalty. He stays this far and looks well in, but this is by far the toughest race he's contested to date, his biggest win previously is a £13k chase. The Grand National winner Mon Mome is in there, along with Halcon Genelardais who is a regular in this and who has been dropped 4 lbs upon his last run, putting him only 1 lb higher than when beaten a head in the 2007 renewal. Hello Bud and Gone to Lunch are strong stayers that could line up at Aintree too next year and have run good races this season. Paul Nicholls saddles three, the most fancied of which appears to be The Tother One, placed behind the Package at Carlisle last time out and who looks open to further improvement. He is also proven on undulating courses which gives him an advantage over Coe, who seems to have ran his best races at Haydock but who looks handicapped to win more races and will appreciate this test of stamina. He is one of three Sue Smith runners. Last year was the first time the race had gone to Ireland. Operation Houdini comes over this year, and then there is still a dozen or so more runners to consider!

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