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** April Poker League Result : 1st Like2Fish, 2nd McG, 3rd andybell666 **

NBA Action - Friday


Guest Carmine Bellini

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Guest Carmine Bellini

As mentioned in previous posts friday nights are always some of the best in the NBA and tonight is no different: Smart Money: Boston -6.5 Detroit / Atlanta Over 180 Mid Term: Pacers +2 Portland +4.5 Lesson Plays: Memphis +3:clap Tried to post them earlier than normal, any questions I will be around for a bit! Carmine

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Re: NBA Action - Friday Fancied BOS -6.5 myself, Carmine so your post gives me a bit more confidence. What do you think on the following: CLE +2 I quite like ATL under 180 though. Worried now. :o

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Re: NBA Action - Friday Too late now, CB as the bets are placed as above. Looking forward to your 2nd half plays though. :ok Well, G'Luck to us ABWN for ATL - Sorry Carmine. ;) Mine so far: CLE +2 1.90 BOS -6.5 1.90 ATL UNDER 180 1.90 (1 point each and all prices b365.)

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Guest Carmine Bellini

Re: NBA Action - Friday Just a quick note some of you may remember that I mentioned friday night as a good night for home teams in the NBA, and for the most part they are but tonight I think you should be careful as the lines are small for a reason. Out of all the home teams out there tonight the best one to play in my opinion, if you are looking to strictly stay with home teams is orlando, followed closely behind by Clippers, Detroit, and Boston. Also a note that Boston did make the cut because of the smart money criteria. You also may notice that for the most part I took some road teams tonight. Simply put the home teams I went against tonight or either in bad plays per lessons or overvalued and in my opinion there are several teams who should not be favorites tonight that are. i.e.: Milwaukee. So although Friday night is the best night for home teams in the NBA, you should always examine it closely and make sure they are good plays and not just follow them blindly. Hope this helps :D CB

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Guest Carmine Bellini

Re: NBA Action - Friday Raven I would be careful with Cleveland Tracy Mcgrady steps up hisgame against Lebron and the Magic have done well against Cleveland in the past.

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CB With your record at the moment CB I will take the TOR + 6.5.:nana On a more serious note I quite like SAC/UTA over 188. Good luck. And quite obviously CB you cant take losing and losers or you wouldn't have posted what you did, to what was meant as quite a harmful post.:cry

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Guest Carmine Bellini

Re: CB Since I will be around for the halftime plays tonight for the most part I thought I would cover what i look for in the game in progress that will help me toward a second half selection. First there is no substitute for watching the games on television, although you can make a great educated choice by watching box scores and listening via Internet (sometimes better than TV) that would be my first choice. Now I am going to break down the early game in progress to show you what I look for and what I may be leaning too for the second halves: First never forget the closing lines on the games they play an important role in deciding what the line will be in the second half, and remember your lessons. Raptors @ Boston Line closed @ -6.5 / 177 As I type this the score is 34-20 boston Shooting percentages: Tor 31% Bos 41% When looking at shooting percentages do not forget to look at 3 point shooting percentages as they are important too Boston leads there 60%-25% Turnovers and fouls are also important to and although they are just one apart in turnovers 5-4, the Raptors are getting more fouls called on them by a 2-1 ratio. This leads to players who may be in foul trouble and sure enough Bosh has 3 fouls, and peterson is right behind him with 2 fouls. The celtics have shot 6 more free throws and hitting 91% showing they practiced after hitting just above 50% from the line against the bucks. The last two categories I look at are assists (tor 5-4) and rebounds. Assists are important to look at because it shows you if the team has good ball movement essential to winning in the NBA. The rebound category is important because it shows how a team could convert second chance shots as well hold the opposition to one shot and won. This is a huge factor in this game at 24-10 :eek These are just some of the things you look at when judging a second half play and I will be back at the half. Hope this helps CB

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Guest Carmine Bellini

Re: CB Although I wrote the Boston /Toronto game up I feel that a second half wager here would not be in my best interest, mainly because I feel the -6.5 is looking solid right now. No need to put more into play on or against a winning proposition. On to the second game however I do have a play. The line is Orl-3.5 / 99.5 A great middle line for you Cleveland backers ;) I also want to cover something else that you should look at when looking for a halftime play and that is individual numbers. For example in Orl/Cle it is odd that Mcgrady has just taken six shots in the first half but it may be due to the fact that Lue is having a great game shooting 5/6 from the floor and leads the Magic with 10 points. Lebron is 8/12 in the first half and Z is also shooting 50% something that may be hard to duplicate, but with the rebound edge they hold it could open up for some second shots. With this in mind it looks like the Cavs are on the way to a win, but a home team does not quit on fridays which means they will foul at the end. With Mcgrady getting more involved I look for a high scoring second half. OVER 100 CB

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Guest Carmine Bellini

Re: CB Raven, thanks for getting the 13th post out of the way and I will try my best to stop copying you ..:D T'Wolves / Warriors Over 95 s/h This is another case where I think this one stays close and free throws put this over in the end. Fast paced tempo game, only 14 free throws in the game so far. This number will increase with the physical play inside late. Also like the Warriors +8, but will stay pat here. CB

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Guest Carmine Bellini

Re: CB The Lines just don't set up right at the halftimes on the side to go for or against my original plays of Memphis and portland here. I was going to hedge with someo fthe higher shooting percentages in the f/h, but will stand pat. I am going to take an under in the second half of the grizzlies / bucks game but very light at under 102, the high percentage in the first half will be hard to keep up with. CB

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Guest Carmine Bellini

Re: NBA Action - Friday Don't know if anyone is around, but adding a late night under 97 Jazz / Kings, a very slow tempo game that favors the Jazz... CB

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