Racing Ahead (Ante-Post Betting with BTP)

[billy the punter]

I've enjoyed my yearly threads in ATR. After some initial fine-tuning I had my Upper Classes thread when I first joined in 2008, that was to level stakes and made a small profit (6% yield approx). Then last season I had my diary, this churned up plenty of winners and discussion and the to-follow list made a level stakes profit betting blind. An ongoing diary, or notebook, is something I have always kept and continue to do so, however once the flat season becomes busy it will always be difficult to maintain the quality of such a thread. Therefore a similar thread is not an option for 2010. I also started a statistics thread last year, I didn't want it to be your typical trainer/course type stats. I wanted to delve a little deeper with them. I probably shouldn't have titled it "Stat of the Day" as the kind of stats I was looking for aren't easy to find. I posted 15 in the end, most of which will be useful for the flat in 2010. I will ressurect the thread when I see a worthwhile statistic. All of these threads, be it the process of putting my thoughts into "print" or through retrospective study, improved my punting - something I foolishly believed wasn't needed/possible at the time. My current ratings thread is going well but due to the amount of juvenile hurdle races, and the nature of them, bets are going to be few and far between and besides it will be redundant after Aintree. So I've been thinking about my new yearly thread. Some of you may or may not know (or care!) that I have recently secured a column in Raceform Update. It focusses on ante-post betting with a smaller section of the article devoted to "notebook horses" - similar to my diary entries of 2009. I thought I'd use my ante-post pieces for my new ATR thread. Due to obvious reasons there will be a delay in posting them, each one will be about a week behind. Although some prices will be gone hopefully the write-ups will still be useful. I will run totals relating to advised prices (for my own use) plus totals based on prices available at time of posting. I will also add the Champion Chase bet I recently lifted from my blog. For anyone who used to occasionally read my blog by the way, it went pretty quiet late summer due to a couple of things but it is now up and running once again. :ok and :hope

[billy the punter]

Re: Racing Ahead (Ante-Post Betting with BTP) Bets are on a scale of 1-10pts. Queen Mother Champion Chase Despite what the market currently tells us, due to the leading protagonists vulnerabilities, this season's Queen Mother Champion Chase could well be up for grabs. Master Minded has disappointed at home as well as on the course recently, and with bone scans planned we must look for a viable alternative. Current 2nd favourite Big Zeb is classy enough but with four falls from eleven chase starts to date, a clear round at Cheltenham is far from certain. If someone will lay me "fall no-bet" I'll get involved. I was lucky enough to back Well Chief ante-post for the Arkle at 33/1. His legs were not as brittle back then, and as brilliant as he is around Cheltenham, he is no longer an ante-post proposition. I'll wait to see what condition he is come the day before I include him in any calculations. It's a possibility these three may not be in the race with a circuit to run on that Wednesday in March, so with most firms going double-figures bar, there must be some risk-free ante-post value around. Risk-free in the sense that bigger priced selections backed now will be a similar price if the big guns line up, but will be a fraction of the price if any of the A-Team fail to make it. Voy Por Ustedes, Crackaway Jack and Schindlers Hunt will almost certainly run in more suitable races so are far from ideal ante-post possibilities. Last season's Arkle 1-2, Forpadydeplasterer and Kalahari King, don't interest me the prices. I still believe both will need further to be at their best and it's no surprise to see them trading at similar prices for the Ryanair Chase. Barker's (who?) 12/1 quote looks very stingy indeed. It's solely based on his two improved runs last April, the last of which a 15l victory over Forpadydeplaster. In my opinion this one time 90-odd rated handicap hurdler hasn't the class to be a Champion Chaser and his odds are at least a third of what they should be. It leaves me with an obvious and perhaps uninspiring selection in Petit Robin. A 9l third at 12/1 last season on only his fourth chase start, he ran better than the formline suggest when a well-beaten 7th on his final start 2m4f Melling Chase at Aintree. After Cheltenham his stable spoke of a step up in trip to "avoid the winner (Master Minded)". However given the sudden uncertainty regarding Master Minded it wouldn't surprise me if connections re-nag on that idea and had another crack at the 2m prize. His left-handed form is very decent and with another year behind him he may not put in his one blunder per race - if that is the case there is every reason to believe he can improve on his 3rd last year, even if class acts do show up. If they don't it leaves the door wide open and just a reproduction of last year's effort will see him fight out the finish. The only viable ante-post option at present. Petit Robin 1pt EW 33/1 Stan James, Ladbrokes ------------------- We've had the Tingle Creek since this was written and the race gave us more reasons to oppose Big Zeb and Well Chief. It moved Twist Magic nearer the head of the market but that horse is at least a stone better at Sandown than any other track - he currently splits bookmakers, as short of 5s with Laddies and as big as 10s with Coral - I cannot have him at either price around Cheltenham.