Aussie Corner 6th/7th March

[Guest Citizen Kane]

Thought 'd kick it off this week with an early look at the Super12 games prior to team news. Blues 1.09 v Chiefs 6.75 Margin 19.5 Blues obvious favourites but @ 1.09 no value. The major NZ domestic teams in these franchises are Auckland and Waikato. Waikato have a reasonable record against Auckland due to the close proximity of the cities and fans who travel in numbers. This parochial support for Waikato has never really translated to support for the Chiefs but I still think it plays a big part in the physce of the players and I see value in taking the 19.5pt start to the Chiefs @ 1.87. Couple of other factors are a reported injury to the Blues star winger Rupeni and possibility of some complacancy by the Blues after a great win against the Crusaders and poor performance by the Chiefs against the Reds. Waratahs v Cats Waratahs 1.02 favourites Cats 12.00 Margin 31.5 Can't see the cats getting close and not comfortable with the Waratahs covering the margin so will be leaving this one alone. Bulls 1.45 v Highlanders 2.65 Margin 6.5 Highlanders blew a 22pt lead last week but I think they can get up over the Bulls this weekend. The Bulls are big and rolled the Hurricanes easily but from earlier posts you will know I have opposed the Canes in both matches so far so personally don't read too much into the Bulls last start win. At the start of the Highlanders tour to SA I would have expected them to get at least one win and probably against the Bulls. I certainly see value in the 2.65 and will be taking this as I believe the bookies have over-reacted to both teams last game. Brumbies 1.03 v Sharks 10.00 Margin 28.5 Brumbies super impressive last week but find it hard to back a team to cover 28.5 so will leave this game alone as well. Reds 2.50 v Crusaders 1.50 Margin 5.5 Reds weren't that impressive against an ordinary Chiefs display and final scoreline was a bit flattering to them. However the Crusaders are struggling for team pattern so far and this is a crucial game to get their season back on track. Huge pressure and expectation on the Crusaders so I see some value in the home team @2.50 and the margin @ 5.5 as if the Crusaders did get up I would predict a close game with only a few points in it. Stormers 1.40 v Hurricanes 2.80 Margin 7.5 Hard to back the Canes at any price. They will be hurting and I don't think they will have the confidence to throw the ball around and encourage a broken play game which I see is their only chance. Would favour the Stormers here no real surprise but 1.40 isn't value and once again could be some complacancy after the come from behind win last week. Even the margin doesn't temp me one way or the other so will be leaving this game alone. Summary Chiefs 19.5pt start @ 1.87 Highlanders HTH @ 2.65 Reds 5.5pt start @ 1.87 will be my bets for the weekend. Will try to update on Friday when team news available. Good luck all and looking forward to others analysis on the Super12 and the AFL.

[Guest Citizen Kane]

Super12 Update Team news has not changed my opinion on any game except the Reds v Crusaders. With Andrew Merthens starting for the Crusaders I can see him bringing a lot to the decision making and helping the Crusaders execute a decent game plan based on territory and conservatism. Hence I would now favour a Crusaders win by less than 10 but couldn't back the 5.5pt margin either way with confidence. Therefore only two bets this weekend: Chiefs 19.5pt start @ 1.87 Highlanders HTH @ 2.65 Good luck to all.