chris34 Posted December 1, 2009 Share Posted December 1, 2009 Piss poor card! Kempton 6.50 Hit the switch won extremely comfortably last time out at first try over a mile on southwells deep surface has only raced once on the polytrack and that was on debut and was 6 of 11 and aslong as take to this surface should clearly go well under a 6lb penalty for a 8 length victory. This field is no better than what he beat last time. 0.5pt win hit the switch 8.50 Kempton Highlight of a very poor aw card. Daddys gift is well drawn today and ran a good enough race last time out at lingfield but has made most of his winning from either making all and being prominent and for some reason they don’t seem to be riding him like that although is potentially well handicapped now but doesn’t show enough to get in front in my opinion and is plenty short enough in the market. The favourite looks well worth a small bet having been racing over 7f recently yet has shown best form over 6f on the aw winning, and is extremely well handicapped now having won off a career high mark of 87 rated just 83 now has shown some promise recently over 7f at lingfield and looked to not have quite enough for 7f so this 6f trip should suit at the moment. He is also well drawn in stall 11. 1pt win fathsta 7/2 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StuSimmy Posted December 2, 2009 Share Posted December 2, 2009 Re: Kempton 2nd Dec (AW) (eve) 20:50 Kempton Fathsta is also going to be my selection in this race. For starters he is very well drawn and is a course and distance winner. Has been running over further recently but he won't mind the step back down to 6f since hes won over the trip 3 times in the past. His course and distance win came off a mark of 80, he is 3lbs higher tonight but he has won off a mark of 85 on the turf before over 7 furlongs. This horse is Simcock's only horse at the meeting which is a positive for me. Ivory Silk and Daddy's Gift are my 2 main dangers. 1 pt win Fathsta @ 4/1 (WillHill - BOG) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted December 2, 2009 Share Posted December 2, 2009 Re: Kempton 2nd Dec (AW) (eve) Kempton 19:50 - Blue Lyric (win) @ 1.72 >Paddys (bog) Likely to be more improvement from Cumani's filly here after an easy win LTO albeit in a class 6 race. She races over the same 7f distance at Kempton tonight, with just five going to post this should be a quick double for Cumani/Fallon. Kempton 20:50 - Thunderous Mood (win) 15.00 Skybet - Beat The Bell (win) 17.00 Ladbrokes (5pts on each) Thunderous Mood has been well beat on starts in handicaps after winning running well in decent maidens, however he showed signs LTO of getting alot closer over C&D, looks to be in here on a decent mark and can go well. Beat The Bell is another who has not tasted much success lately but creeping down the handicap slowly, has previously gone well over C&D and the first-time cheekpieces may do the trick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted December 2, 2009 Share Posted December 2, 2009 Re: Kempton 2nd Dec (AW) (eve) 8.20 Kempton Brett Vale - has the ability to race from the front and Dane O'Neill is a better judge of pace than Rosie Jessop who got her fractions horribly wrong on this horse at Sandown in August. His mark has dropped back down to more realistic level and although he has now left Sir Mark Prescott, his current trainer is bang in form, winning with all of his last three runners. 10/1 Sporting Bet, 1 pt win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
south_eastern_ram Posted December 2, 2009 Share Posted December 2, 2009 Re: Kempton 2nd Dec (AW) (eve) 8.50 Beat The Bell is massive at 20's and is value of the race imo. Won a class 3 hadicap on the a.w last year off a pound higher, then finished 2nd in a class 2 handicap here at Kempton off 90. So far this year hasnt matched that form, but finished 3rd at Lingfield in a class 3 handicap at this trip 3 starts ago. Lto ran here at Kempton is a class above todays and went down by 5 1/2 lengths. However, is 3 lb better off and in a weaker race today. First time cheekpieces so hopefully they do the trick. Little Pete finished a close 2nd two starts ago in a similar race to this, and is now 1lb better off. First start for new yard lto wasnt very promising but hopefully return to this track will help. Judging by that race 2 starts ago 28/1 at the moment is too big to ignore. Brierty is 7/1 with some firms but 12/1 with skybet. Is now back down to her last winning mark of 79. Lto was 2 3/4 lengths off first here at Kempton at 6f and is now a pound lower with Fallon booked for the first time. 12/1 is decent each way value imo. Beat The Bell - E/W Little Pete - E/W Brierty - E/W Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted December 2, 2009 Share Posted December 2, 2009 Re: Kempton 2nd Dec (AW) (eve) 9.20 Kempton These classified stakes races are restricted to poorly rated horses and thus they are a type of race I tend to duck as much as possible. Because the band of official ratings is restricted to a ceiling of 55 they are always tightly knit affairs and 5 lbs seperates all bar one of this field as they run off level weights. With that in mind I think it will pay to side with one that has the potential for improvement and that could improve beyond his/her rating tonight. Not many tick that box but Tagula Minx has the potential to improve now stepping out of maidens and could be overpriced at 33/1. Her sire Tagula produces his fair share of winners on the all-weather and although her maiden form is poor at first glance she may have needed the run when fading at Wolverhampton last time out. I think another attempt to make the running would be unwise tonight but with her being drawn across in stall 6 she may be forced to sit further back in the field anyway. I think the step back in trip is a positive as is the winner the yard managed on Monday. It is a weak race but she would only need to improve a couple of pounds upon her official rating to be in the mix and at the price I have decided to have a small interest. 33/1 Paddy's, 0.25 pt EW Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted December 2, 2009 Share Posted December 2, 2009 Re: Kempton 2nd Dec (AW) (eve) 6.50 Ejeed - EW This is a very poor race which is just as well as my selection is pretty useless and hasn't yet been placed in it's career On the plus side, everything else in the race is pretty useless as well To be positive though - Ejeed has had a couple of runs back after a summer break, tops my speed figures on both it's last 2 runs and appears to give his best (such as it is) at this track. He ran in a Listed race at the weekend and predictably was beaten 20 lengths. Even so he managed to beat 2 home including the one I put up in BBotD.......:lol Obviously back in a more realistic class tonight and must have a chance of breaking his prize money duck........... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted December 2, 2009 Share Posted December 2, 2009 Re: Kempton 2nd Dec (AW) (eve) 7.50 - Master of Dance - win Only 5 runners in this Class 4 nursery and they all appear to have a chance with 3 last time out winners and 2 last time out 2nds. The current odds-on favourite, Blue Lyric, looks poor value given that he's stepping up from Class 6, tho' I suppose the trainers name has something to do with it (Cumani) Master of the Dance has some good bits of form to his name - beaten under a length in a Class 3 Nursery at Newbury, beaten a short head in a Class 3 stakes at lingfield. His last run in a nursery can be ignored as he was badly hampered and had to drop back to the rear of the field before running on again. I like these Hannon horses who run a lot but keep improving. He's a terrific trainer isn't he ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted December 2, 2009 Share Posted December 2, 2009 Re: Kempton 2nd Dec (AW) (eve) 8.20 - Rajamand - win This one is a bit of an unknown quantity having only had the one run in this country But it was a good run - finished 5th in a Class 3 Stakes. A Godolphin hotpot won that race by 5 lengths but my selection finished in a group behind with the likes of Pachattack, Philatelist, Russian Sage - I suspect they'd all be considered as listed class performers. So if he can build on that debut and maybe come on a bit, should go close in tonights race. Currently 9/2 4th favourite of 5 runners My second choice in the race would be Fin's pick - Brett Vale, who comes out 2nd best on my ratings to my selection, has beaten the likely favourite, Satwa Gold, last time they met and is currently the outsider of the field. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgeCOSTANZA Posted December 2, 2009 Share Posted December 2, 2009 Re: Kempton 2nd Dec (AW) (eve) Tip Detail Tip Detail Sport Horse Racing Event KEMPTON - 19:20 Selection LORD FIDELIO (Cover 3 Places) Strength 10/10 Date 02/12/2009 Bookmaker/Price >Bet365 @ 2.10 (Back) Reasoning KEMPTON 19:20 Digibet.com Median Auction Maiden Stakes (3-5yo, Class 5, 7f, 9 runners) BACK: LORD FIDELIO 3RD by 2L at Newbury to SANTEFISIO when last raced in a maiden, 30May09. Followed that up with a couple of decent handicap runs including here lto. Trained by A M Balding he should again go well at this course. Balding's runners have been performing well here and must be respected. L Keniry is booked and they had two maiden wins here last month. PENZENA was a smart winner by 4L and PITTODRIE STAR also won very well. None of the two had course experience so LORD FIDELIO looks very good. Bet365 Cover 3 Places at 11-10. Close Window Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam_P Posted December 2, 2009 Share Posted December 2, 2009 Re: Kempton 2nd Dec (AW) (eve) Kempton 19:20 Lord of the dance - Seems a fairly consistent horse recently, and is on the fibre sand for the first time, i would be backing Light sleeper on here but am looking for value so i will be E/W on this one to upset the favourite. Lord of the dance 2pt E/W @ 7/1(ladbrokes) Kempton 19:50 - Blue lyric - Won over Course & Distance last time out last week here, and although its against tougher opponents this time i still think she will win this race. Blue lyric 3pt Win @ 4/5 (Ladbrokes) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lars Posted December 2, 2009 Share Posted December 2, 2009 Re: Kempton 2nd Dec (AW) (eve) Awful card but one speculative selection that might run well at a price. 20:50 Kempton Princess Valerina won off 79 at Wolverhampton back in April, and today runs off 80. Has had a poor summer on the turf, was raced in some tough contests and didn't do well in any of them really. Struggled on it's return to sand off a mark of 84 in August but that was a better contest than today, and it's following run (on turf) did show a bit more promise, doing well after been slowly away. Had a terrible draw LTO in a Class 3 contest over CD, but with a better draw, a step down in quality and a 2lbs less on board, this one could grab a place. 0.5pt EW @ 33/1 StanJames Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xcode Posted December 2, 2009 Share Posted December 2, 2009 Re: Kempton 2nd Dec (AW) (eve) What's up with Topcroft??? What's that gamble? I took it at 5/2 to be placed. I hope the money are right. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xcode Posted December 2, 2009 Share Posted December 2, 2009 Re: Kempton 2nd Dec (AW) (eve) What's up with Topcroft??? What's that gamble? I took it at 5/2 to be placed. I hope the money are right. :hope "Gamble landed" :dude:dude:dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
south_eastern_ram Posted December 2, 2009 Share Posted December 2, 2009 Re: Kempton 2nd Dec (AW) (eve) 8.50 Beat The Bell is massive at 20's and is value of the race imo. Won a class 3 hadicap on the a.w last year off a pound higher, then finished 2nd in a class 2 handicap here at Kempton off 90. So far this year hasnt matched that form, but finished 3rd at Lingfield in a class 3 handicap at this trip 3 starts ago. Lto ran here at Kempton is a class above todays and went down by 5 1/2 lengths. However, is 3 lb better off and in a weaker race today. First time cheekpieces so hopefully they do the trick. Little Pete finished a close 2nd two starts ago in a similar race to this, and is now 1lb better off. First start for new yard lto wasnt very promising but hopefully return to this track will help. Judging by that race 2 starts ago 28/1 at the moment is too big to ignore. Brierty is 7/1 with some firms but 12/1 with skybet. Is now back down to her last winning mark of 79. Lto was 2 3/4 lengths off first here at Kempton at 6f and is now a pound lower with Fallon booked for the first time. 12/1 is decent each way value imo. Beat The Bell - E/W Little Pete - E/W Brierty - E/W Can get 28/1 on Beat The Bell with skybet, ridiculous price imo. Little Pete is also out to 33/1 with Skybet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted December 2, 2009 Share Posted December 2, 2009 Re: Kempton 2nd Dec (AW) (eve) Beat The Bell is a huge price SER, if trying. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted December 2, 2009 Share Posted December 2, 2009 Re: Kempton 2nd Dec (AW) (eve) Kemp 8.50 - Cecily - win Has had 2 runs back from a summer break and ran well both races, beaten just a length in each in decent AW handicaps won by Ektimaal and Lesleys Choice. Is still lightly raced with just 14 career runs and being a three year old is still less exposed than a few of these 'usual suspects' Seems pretty versatile as to tactics, can front run or be held up, hopefully it will be the latter today as there are a few front runners in the field Although the last run was pretty good I think she might improve a bit for the 6th furlong tonight, last time was over 5F She's won off 79 and runs off 80 tonight, so she's not unfairly treated Not badly drawn in the middle - I think perhaps hold her up and go for the inside at the cut away, but who am I to tell Seb Sanders his job ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted December 2, 2009 Share Posted December 2, 2009 Re: Kempton 2nd Dec (AW) (eve) Kempton 21:20 - Clerical (Each-Way) @ 8/1 Coral (bog) Run well here two runs ago when 2nd aginst similar opposition, disappointed when sent off a shorter price at Lingfield LTO but Jim Crowley back in the saddle here, also wears a first time visor which may help. 0 wins in 16 runs but this won't take much winning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
south_eastern_ram Posted December 2, 2009 Share Posted December 2, 2009 Re: Kempton 2nd Dec (AW) (eve) Kempton 9.20 - Madhal E/W Only 5 starts so far in his career so improvement is still a possibility. Didnt show much on turf, but first start on a.w here at Kempton a big improvement was seen. Was only about 2 lengths behind the winner in 5th and was close behind some decent horses in Vanadium, Annes Rocket and Who's Winning who would all be short prices if in this race. Was then dropped in trip which didnt seem to suit, but is now back to 7f at Kempton in a very weak race. 20/1 with stanjames. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam_P Posted December 2, 2009 Share Posted December 2, 2009 Re: Kempton 2nd Dec (AW) (eve) Kempton 20:50 Dvinsky is Running off a good mark with a number of C&D wins at this course i fancy this one and will be having a bit on Fathsta aswell. Dvinsky 2pt E/W @ 12/1 (ladbrokes) Fathsta 2pt win @ 11/4 (ladbrokes) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RussP Posted December 2, 2009 Share Posted December 2, 2009 Re: Kempton 2nd Dec (AW) (eve) Ivory Silk is now a big looking 10/1 with Bet365 to take the 8.50. Races off top weight but has very good form on the AW, has Catlin back on board (the only jockey to win on it), up in trip which will suit this horse and draw shouldn't be a problem for its hold up type. Races off same mark as lto when 2nd. Down in class and up in trip makes this price too big to miss. Great chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted December 2, 2009 Share Posted December 2, 2009 Re: Kempton 2nd Dec (AW) (eve) 8.50 THUNDEROUS MOOD 14/1 looks big with Spencer booked. Better run LTO and form of race has worked out fairly well. Horse can improve not the best of draws but 14's is to big imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted December 2, 2009 Share Posted December 2, 2009 Re: Kempton 2nd Dec (AW) (eve) Thought we had it for a second Ted. :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hucks Posted December 2, 2009 Share Posted December 2, 2009 Re: Kempton 2nd Dec (AW) (eve) One to watch for next time out for sure Spooner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diamond1924 Posted December 2, 2009 Share Posted December 2, 2009 Re: Kempton 2nd Dec (AW) (eve) 820 Tripitaka. Sorry guys, I left a few notes and tipped a few of you up LTO that Tripitaka was a cracking horse and an acquaintance of mines is a part owner. The horse inadvertently let us all down last time, he burst a blood vessel in his lung hence his awful run. I didn't put him up as tip today as there was an element of doubt in case of a repeat. I wish I'd staked that same today as I'd done last time considering the 5/1 sp. sorry:sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted December 2, 2009 Share Posted December 2, 2009 Re: Kempton 2nd Dec (AW) (eve) In the last 16/1 shot if in the mood CAVALRY GAURD can make its present felt from good draw also Tagula Minx may improve for the drop back in trip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam_P Posted December 2, 2009 Share Posted December 2, 2009 Re: Kempton 2nd Dec (AW) (eve) In the last 16/1 shot if in the mood CAVALRY GAURD can make its present felt from good draw also Tagula Minx may improve for the drop back in trip. Im on this one aswell for the last race, not a very consistent horse but has a good draw. 16/1 looks a good price. goodluck ted Cavalry Guard 16/1 (ladbrokes) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StuSimmy Posted December 2, 2009 Share Posted December 2, 2009 Re: Kempton 2nd Dec (AW) (eve) 20:50 Kempton Fathsta is also going to be my selection in this race. For starters he is very well drawn and is a course and distance winner. Has been running over further recently but he won't mind the step back down to 6f since hes won over the trip 3 times in the past. His course and distance win came off a mark of 80, he is 3lbs higher tonight but he has won off a mark of 85 on the turf before over 7 furlongs. This horse is Simcock's only horse at the meeting which is a positive for me. Ivory Silk and Daddy's Gift are my 2 main dangers. 1 pt win Fathsta @ 4/1 (WillHill - BOG) Daddy's Gift wins at 15/2 :puke Thought Fathsta was unlucky too, was short of room when trying to make some headway, done very well to run on for 2nd I thought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dtrains Posted December 2, 2009 Share Posted December 2, 2009 Re: Kempton 2nd Dec (AW) (eve) Hmmm i was on fathsta aswel only for small stakes mind you but i feel sorry for anyone who had a large bet on him, fingers crossed that payback will be sweet altho he could be a shorty NTO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted December 3, 2009 Share Posted December 3, 2009 Re: Kempton 2nd Dec (AW) (eve) I always seem to find Kempton difficult - don't know why. Some guys say they find Southwell tricky and I do a bit as well, but not as much as Kempton.............:( Also a note .........I've been looking ahead at thursday and friday cards and there's lots of Irish runners declared at Wolves. Now that Dundalk has closed down for the winter I expect we'll see a big invasion from across the Irish Sea which is going is going to make things even more difficult.............. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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