Sedgefield ~ 24th Nov

[mileni4uk]

2.50 Sedgefield - Carrietau e/w 7/2 Ran a very good 2nd last time and the winner has won again since. It was a conditional riders handicap, so actually Ryan Mania will claim the 5lbs today and I think he can finally win after so many near misses. Storm Surge comes after a long break and fitness is taken on trust. Farne Island was 2nd lto with a claimer, so this will be a bit tougher with no claim and raise in the weights. Barton Sun could have had a chance, but is outside of the handicap and these 4lbs are a bit too much for the old fella to overcome and win here, I think he's a nice place bet, but not more. Even if my selection finds someting to beat him today, I am qutie confident he can be in the places and I should get most of my stake back.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Sedgefield ~ 24th Nov 1.20 Sedgefield - Riguez Dancer e/w 11/4 I think the market is completely wrong here. The only reason why Riguez Dancer is so big is probably the doubt about him staying better than the Howard Johnson horse, but the short priced fav did fail to win over similar trips and is rated 120 over hurdles, while my selection has a mark of 128 and was in grand form on the flat including a win over 2m. All these wins on the flat make me think he has improved a lot since and is a lot better than his hurdling mark suggests. Has also won on soft, has placed over this distance and if not a favorite, should at least be closer in the market than the 11/4 on offer. With joining top yard, who's on form at the moment, I have to be on the horse today even if it's his debut. I hope there are no last minute surprises with the 8 runner field.