Rateform etc

[ratingsoccer]

First thread I have started here (although lurked for a while) so please be gentle. I've spent a lot of time and effort recently looking into rating systems. A lot of surfing, bought the books that JB refers to on football-data.co.uk, a lot of paper testing, etc. I know its been done before on here (some of the threads are very old) and I don't want to just re-hash this discussion. My trawling has led me to come across some successful stories of ratings and I'm a firm believer that it can be done. I had a look at the betdevil site, (i'd looked before) and plumped for the gold membership trial offer. It seems to me (and perhaps I am being stupid) that the ratings (rateform) on their own offer very little or no edge. This was my thinking on the subject: If the ratings offer an edge it should be relatively simple to dive into the data and find clear evidence of this (however small). For example if the rateform for a game is over 1000, there should be an odds threshold above which this game becomes an automatic bet. Try as I might I couldn't find such a threshold, experimenting with different leagues, rateforms, odds, etc. Its not helped by every historical analysis having to performed on a percentage of bank staking plan basis. Level stakes would make things so much clearer in terms of yield etc. It also seems for some games in more obscure leagues had some strange odds, and sometimes this must be down to the lack of books pricing them up. Any feedback on rateform, power ratings, etc would be more than welcomed here - or any other sources to examine that I have omitted above. By the looks of some of the old threads the author of one of the books recommended by Joe B got a rough ride, but showed an excellent yield in his book. I think this was down to the fact that he factored in team news etc into his bets throughout the season, and only used the ratings as a base rather than a "grail". He no doubt avoided a lot of trap bets.

[ratingsoccer]

Re: Rateform etc 61 views and no replies - am I in the wrong section for this post?

[ratingsoccer]

Re: Rateform etc 152 views - only from people looking for the holy grail then moving on to the next thread I assume.....any constructive comments welcomed!

[happygooner]

Re: Rateform etc Sorry, I don't have anything constructive to add so can't help:( Figured a useless reply was better than another voyeur though. At least you know you're not being ignored then:)

[ratingsoccer]

Re: Rateform etc Yep, very pleased to have any kind of response! Hoping that someone will say I am wrong about betdevil, or indeed that rateform doesn't work at all, its an old system and the bookies are more on top about how they price games now, etc.

[Rushian]

Re: Rateform etc I'm not familiar with betdevil's ratings so I may not be fully qualified to answer this but a couple of thoughts: Ratings which are solely based on results (1x2) or even actual scorelines (1-0, 3-1, 0-2 etc) are missing important information I think and would be more difficult - if not impossible - to transform into profitable systems. After all, a 1-0 win could be a tight last-minute winner affair, or a one-way match with a huge number of chances missed. Money management is a great big chapter, but I feel should not be confused with the type of system used. My feeling is that the staking plan should depend on the odds taken and the edge found in each bet (e.g Kelly staking or such measures). Just my 2p worth of thoughts. Good luck!