HampshireIan Posted November 12, 2009 Share Posted November 12, 2009 Hi guys, Just wondered if someone can explain this please? Saw this on the Betfair forum... Originally a guy backed Real Mallorca £300 @ 1.70 for the win and later he "layed" them for £400 @ 1.25 for locked in profit. What i'm not getting is the laying. Is he saying that in his second bet he layed Mallorca so then expecting them to either draw or lose? If this is the case, i'm just amazed that someone would match that bet if Vallecano were 1-0 down away from home? Have I got this right? Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted November 12, 2009 Share Posted November 12, 2009 Re: Locking In? / Greening Up? you most certainly have ian, thats the joys of greening up. most in play traders play this risky game and it is risky, one of the most common in play markets on the 1x2 is laying the draw. before the match you lay the draw in instances where a game has a clear favourite, ie man utd v burnley at old trafford. then once man u go 1-0 up as you would expect, this then shoots the draw odds up and you then back the draw to lock in profit. of course someone will match the bet for you as in todays game there is always the chance burnley will get an equaliser........its an adrenalined filled game and can be played for fun but it is advisable to play with a strict system only as you find yourself getting carried away. Good luck with whatever your bets ar........ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted November 12, 2009 Share Posted November 12, 2009 Re: Locking In? / Greening Up? What i'm not getting is the laying. Is he saying that in his second bet he layed Mallorca so then expecting them to either draw or lose? Yes, Ian, you got it correct - his first bet wins if Mallorca wins; his second bet wins if Mallorca loses or draws; he can earn money in these transactions on the basis of difference in odds. Traders often understand backing as "selling", and laying as "buying"; obviously, if you buy something at price of 1.25, and then sell it at price of 1.70, you will earn money on the basis of that difference. In this case, if Mallorca wins, he wins 300*(1.70-1) = 210 units from his back bet, and loses his liability of 400*(1.25-1) = 100 units; therefore, his net profit is 110 units; if Mallorca does not win, he loses 300 units stake of his back bet, but wins 400 units of backer's stake in his lay bet; again, he is in profit of 100 units; Betfair's commission is applied to net winnings at market, so, at the end of the day and at level of 5% commission, his account will increase for either 104.50, either 95.00 units. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted November 12, 2009 Share Posted November 12, 2009 Re: Locking In? / Greening Up? If this is the case, i'm just amazed that someone would match that bet if Vallecano were 1-0 down away from home? Nah... Two days ago, Valencia was 2-0 up against Alcoyon, and finished 2-2; I didn't trade that match, but given that initial odds for Valencia to win were about 1.35, I believe Valencia was available to lay at no higher than 1.05 after leading 2-0... Yesterday there was a quite strange match in Hungary; I was thinking about trading it, but luckily I stayed away, otherwise I would probably incur big loss: by the middle of first half, Ferencvaros was 2-0 up against Nieregihaza away; by that time, Ferencvaros was available to lay at about 1.20; by the end of first half, Nieregihaza overturned result to 3-2, and Ferencvaros drifted up to about 8; yet, early in second half, Ferencvaros again went up, 4-3, which appeared to be final result, and odds, naturally, again climbed down. Furthermore, if I remember well, yesterday FA cup game Rochdale vs. Luton was re-played, because the first one finished 3-3; one of the teams, I can't recall now which one, was 3-1 up with 5 minutes to go, but the oposite side succeeded to equalize in injury time. There is a plenty of such a games around, and, as you know, there is only one thing sure: nothing is sure! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted November 12, 2009 Share Posted November 12, 2009 Re: Locking In? / Greening Up? If this is the case, i'm just amazed that someone would match that bet if Vallecano were 1-0 down away from home? Yes, people will match that. People will have a bet at a big price on a draw or comeback if they perceive that to be value. In addition there are bots running constantly matching in all markets as prices moves. In addition Betfair have "cross market" matching in place which means a lay bet on one selection can be matched against 2 back bets on the other 2 selections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HampshireIan Posted November 12, 2009 Author Share Posted November 12, 2009 Re: Locking In? / Greening Up? Guys, thanks very much for your responses... i'm certainly going to have a look at this and maybe paper trail for a while ;) Do you guys just use your quickness of thought on these things or do you have one of those online betting calculators up and ready? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted November 12, 2009 Share Posted November 12, 2009 Re: Locking In? / Greening Up? Guys, thanks very much for your responses... i'm certainly going to have a look at this and maybe paper trail for a while ;) Do you guys just use your quickness of thought on these things or do you have one of those online betting calculators up and ready? i use a hedging calculator when in play trading, theres plenty available on line, oddschecker.com has a really good one. but most of my money is made from system betting so i tend to steer clear from the in play markets unless im backing a clear favourtie who i simply lay once they are 1-0 up. hope this helps Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
froment Posted November 12, 2009 Share Posted November 12, 2009 Re: Locking In? / Greening Up? Guys, thanks very much for your responses... i'm certainly going to have a look at this and maybe paper trail for a while ;) Do you guys just use your quickness of thought on these things or do you have one of those online betting calculators up and ready? Yep, surely must be quick in some occassions, as odds sometimes move very fast, so if you hesitate to place a bet, it loses its value; but sometimes, odds remain steady or move in your favour, so you don't have to hurry up. Calculator I often use is at Chroma Web; the first one gives you option only to equalize profit, i.e., to have equal profit whichever selection to win (or equal loss, if you are forced to lay at bigger odds than you backed, and vice versa); though, sometimes you might want not to distribute profit/loss through all selections equally, but to have bigger profit if some selections win, and lower profit (or no profit at all, just covered stake/liability), if some other selections win; for those purposes, use the second calculator, "slider". Don't forget to include commission. And also, turn on option "What if" in betfair's site interface - it shows profit/loss for each selction as you type odds/stakes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HampshireIan Posted November 15, 2009 Author Share Posted November 15, 2009 Re: Locking In? / Greening Up? There was an interesting game last night that had me a bit confused. Portugal v Bosnia.. Decided i'd back/Lay on the over 2.5 goals so backed at 1.87. There's a goal on 31 minutes so I have a quick look on >Betfair and there is zilch movement in the Lay odds. It moved something like 2 points which wouldn't even lock me in for my money back, and as time went on, the Lay odds increased so I could not get anywhere. So, to anyone with knowledge, why do you think the odds did not drop enough for me to green up and also, what would you have done? I was almost tempted when I could see by half time that the odds weren't changing, to just lock in the minimal loss that I coyld. Your thoughts please? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted November 15, 2009 Share Posted November 15, 2009 Re: Locking In? / Greening Up? The "market" didn't move enough because at 31 min. with one goal the expectation of 2 more goals wasn't big enough to move it further. Simple as that. What would i have done ? Essential part of trading that you know that beforehand. your strategy in each possible case should be defined before entering a trade. Having said that there is no one answer as different people may outset a different action for that situation. So the answer is whatever i had decided beforehand while researching the match. Personally i would most likely trade out for minimal loss/profit as soon as possible, other might let it run for another goal and take the risk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HampshireIan Posted November 15, 2009 Author Share Posted November 15, 2009 Re: Locking In? / Greening Up? The "market" didn't move enough because at 31 min. with one goal the expectation of 2 more goals wasn't big enough to move it further. Simple as that. I suppose that was always going to be the answer for that one as that's how it panned out. I just assumed that as the first goal had gone in on 31 minutes the odds would have just dropped as with 60 minutes left there was a very good chance of the overs happening Essential part of trading that you know that beforehand. your strategy in each possible case should be defined before entering a trade. Hmmm, difficult one really. I didnt feel there would be many goals BUT I did think after an early goal the other team would be chasing and it would come in for me. But hey, I lost so what do I know eh! Personally i would most likely trade out for minimal loss/profit as soon as possible I took the chance and waited (and lost). What would have been the defining moment for you... after the goal had been scored and there was no immediate movement in the lay odds? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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