Booksie Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 Evening peeps. I do alot of football betting and mainly singles/doubles and recently i have been thinkin if there is a way of making profit in the longer run of fixed odds football betting, i know many people think like this too. Normally I place £5/£10 singles & doubles. Also im fed up of when doing accum's 1/2 teams let me down. I rustled up an idea and it goes as follows... Each bet would be £6.00 Staked Pick 5 football teams of odds at 11/10 ish or more and place singles like this. Just as an example ( For this all the teams odds are 11/10) Lyon 11/10 - £1 Win Single AC Milan 11/10 - £1 Win Single Villarreal 11/10 - £1 Win Single Liverpool 11/10 - £1 Win Single Werder Bremen 11/10 £1 Win Single Also 1 x £1.00 5 fold accumalator... £6.00 staked as ive said If all teams win then you stand to get £40.83 for the accum and £2.10 each for the singles so total winnings £51.33 So big profit if all come in and i was looking at you make a very small 30pence profit if only 3 comes in and any more is a bonus. Obviously odds arnt 11/10 each time but 5/4 is the minimum odd used i think Is this likely to work in the long run?? Your thoughts would be appreciated Many Thanks Dan - Booksie :ok Ive also posted this is Systems & Strategys i dont know which one it should be in but want as much response from people as poss! ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted October 29, 2009 Share Posted October 29, 2009 Re: Can I make profit on this system?? Hi Booksie. It's a little late here, but will try to explain my opinion as clear as poss! Ok, so you got 5 picks, all with theoretical (decimal) odds of 2.10 (assuming there's no commission etc). Here's a few figures which may, or may not, help! Mathematically, each selection has a (1/2.1) = 47.6% chance of winning. From 5 picks, on average, you can expect to win 2 selections, which will return just £4.20 from a total stake of £6.00. Thus, a £1.80 loss. Sometimes you will get 3 winners, which will, like you said, give a 30p profit. A 'full house' of 5 winners will return around £51.33 (including all 5 singles and accumulator). The maths suggest that the chance of winning all 5 selections is just 2.4%, or 1 time in 41 attempts. [ (1/2.10)^5 = 0.024485 ] Unless you have a system in place which suggests you have an advantage over the bookies (or the people offering the odds), or if you are extremely lucky, you will not make a good profit in the long run. I believe most fellow punters on PL will agree that the ingredients of 'Discipline' and 'Money Management' go a long, long way in sports betting. But, the most important ingredient is finding real value in your selections. To make your 'system' create profit, you will need to find a consistent strike rate of at least 60% (3/5 winners), or 80% (4/5 winners). Bear in mind that a 60% strike-rate means finding over 12% 'value' in all of your selections. If I could find value like that consistently, then I'd be a very rich man by now! My advice would be to play very safe with this strategy, and only use it for a bit of fun. Sorry if I've put a dampener on things, but just thought I'd give my honest thoughts, like you asked, and maybe given you something to ponder. You never know though, you may prove to be lucky and win a 5/5 from the start! Good Luck! :) MT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Booksie Posted October 29, 2009 Author Share Posted October 29, 2009 Re: Can I make profit on this system?? Thanks for your views mate, i see what you mean about it may/may not profit, trial and error as they say!!! Im going to try it as a glory hunt and like you said i may get 5/5 first time round :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted October 29, 2009 Share Posted October 29, 2009 Re: Can I make profit on this system?? By all means mate, give it a shot. I'll check back to see how it goes for you :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Booksie Posted October 29, 2009 Author Share Posted October 29, 2009 Re: Can I make profit on this system?? Right im going to start this tonight and see how it goes, theres not alot of matches tonight so a few big odds teams in this. £1 Single - Mallorca 7/5 £1 Single - Puertollano 39/10 £1 Single - AC Bellinzona 79/20 £1 Single - Racing Santander 31/20 £1 Single - SonderjyskE 24/5 Also 1 x £1 5 fold on the above which pays £830 lol imagine if i hit that first night of trying. Bet One £6 Staked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottyXS Posted October 29, 2009 Share Posted October 29, 2009 Re: Can I make profit on this system?? Good luck to you Booksie :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Booksie Posted October 29, 2009 Author Share Posted October 29, 2009 Re: Can I make profit on this system?? My First Pick thats playing is SonderjyskE @ 24/5 Won 5-0 :clap big odd there fantastic start, £5.80 return only 20p to get atleast my stake back with 4 more to play!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Booksie Posted October 29, 2009 Author Share Posted October 29, 2009 Re: Can I make profit on this system?? Right im going to start this tonight and see how it goes, theres not alot of matches tonight so a few big odds teams in this. £1 Single - Mallorca 7/5 :@ Lost 2-1 £1 Single - Puertollano 39/10 :@ Drew 1-1 £1 Single - AC Bellinzona 79/20 :@ Lost 7-1 LMFAO £1 Single - Racing Santander 31/20 :@ Lost 1-0 £1 Single - SonderjyskE 24/5 :nana Won 5-0 (Paid £5.80) Also 1 x £1 5 fold on the above which pays £830 lol imagine if i hit that first night of trying.:@ Bet One £6 Staked Total Bet 1 Total Staked £6.00 Total Returns £5.80 Profit +/- £0.20 - Well 1/5 but it was a real big odd so £6 staked £5.80 returns, im going to do another one for tonight/tomorrow now. Bet Two - £6 Staked £1 Single - Fluminense 13/10 £1 Single - Seattle Sounders 21/20 £1 Single - DRAW - Sport Recife/Cortiba 12/5 £1 Single - DRAW - Argentinos Juniors / River Plate 12/5 £1 Single - Brisbane Roar 21/20 Also 1 x £1 5 fold which pays £108ish :hope :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted October 29, 2009 Share Posted October 29, 2009 Re: Can I make profit on this system?? Not too bad, only 20p down on the first attempt! (ps. I had a nice wager on Young Boys to beat Bellinzona, and was pleasantly suprised to see the home side get their keeper sent off after 14 minutes!) Good luck with the next batch! :ok MT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Booksie Posted October 29, 2009 Author Share Posted October 29, 2009 Re: Can I make profit on this system?? Lol that result was ridiculous haha, still fingers crossed the 5 tonight will bring something much more positive. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted October 29, 2009 Share Posted October 29, 2009 Re: Can I make profit on this system?? lol.. I see the odds for your selections are generally some way off the 11/10 mentioned in the original post! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Booksie Posted October 30, 2009 Author Share Posted October 30, 2009 Re: Can I make profit on this system?? Yeah that was an example, im just random picking ones I think will win. i meant to put aslong as they are 5/4 / 11/10 and above. :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Booksie Posted October 30, 2009 Author Share Posted October 30, 2009 Re: Can I make profit on this system?? Bet Two - £6 Staked £1 Single - Fluminense 13/10 :loon Won 2-1 : £2.30 returns £1 Single - Seattle Sounders 21/20 :cry £1 Single - DRAW - Sport Recife/Cortiba 12/5 :loon 1-1 Draw : £3.40 returns £1 Single - DRAW - Argentinos Juniors / River Plate 12/5 :cry £1 Single - Brisbane Roar 21/20 :cry Also 1 x £1 5 fold which pays £108ish :cry :hope :ok Total Bets 2 Total Staked £12.00 Total Returns £11.50 Profit +/- : £0.50 - Still not as bad as i think id be doing, :ok Bet Three coming up later :ok Booksie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Booksie Posted October 30, 2009 Author Share Posted October 30, 2009 Re: Can I make profit on this system?? Bet Three - £6 Staked £1 Single - Bohemians / Sligo (Draw) 3/1 £1 Single - Den Bosch Win 17/10 £1 Single - Gillingham Win 49/20 £1 Single - NAC Breda Win 31/20 £1 Single - Brest / Caen (Draw) 9/5 Also 1 x £1 5 fold which pays £266 ish :hope :ok Dan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Booksie Posted October 30, 2009 Author Share Posted October 30, 2009 Re: Can I make profit on this system?? Bet Three - £6 Staked £1 Single - Bohemians / Sligo (Draw) 3/1 :cry £1 Single - Den Bosch Win 17/10 :D Won 1-0 - £2.70 returns £1 Single - Gillingham Win 49/20 :cry £1 Single - NAC Breda Win 31/20 :cry £1 Single - Brest / Caen (Draw) 9/5 :cry Also 1 x £1 5 fold which pays £266 ish :hope :cry :ok Dan Total Bets 3 Total Staked £18.00 Total Returns £14.50 Profit +/- : £3.50 - Not good tonight, got another lined up now so hopefully get atleast 3 up in this one. Bet Four - £6 Staked £1 Single - Duque de Caxais Win 33/20 £1 Single - Ceara Win 7/5 £1 Single - La Serena Win 39/20 £1 Single - Villa Nova/Ponte Preta (Draw) 23/10 £1 Single - NBA Basketball - Golden State Warriors Win 2/1 Also 1 x £1 5 fold which pays £185.76 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Booksie Posted October 31, 2009 Author Share Posted October 31, 2009 Re: Can I make profit on this system?? Bet Four - £6 Staked £1 Single - Duque de Caxais Win 33/20 :clap Won 5-1 : £2.65 Returns £1 Single - Ceara Win 7/5 :@ £1 Single - La Serena Win 39/20 :clap Won 3-1 : £2.95 Returns £1 Single - Villa Nova/Ponte Preta (Draw) 23/10 :@ 3-2 90th min £1 Single - NBA Basketball - Golden State Warriors Win 2/1 :@ Also 1 x £1 5 fold which pays £185.76 :@ :hope Total Bets 4 Total Staked £24.00 Total Returns £20.10 Profit +/- : £3.90 - Bet Four - £6 Staked £1 Single - Portsmouth Win 13/10 £1 Single - Aris Saloniki Win 39/20 £1 Single - Modena Win 27/20 £1 Single - Aberdeen Win 23/10 £1 Single - Draw - Koln/Hannover 23/10 Also 1 x £1 5 fold which pays :hope :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Booksie Posted October 31, 2009 Author Share Posted October 31, 2009 Re: Can I make profit on this system?? Bet Five - £6 Staked £1 Single - Portsmouth Win 13/10 :nana £2.30 Returns £1 Single - Aris Saloniki Win 39/20 :@ £1 Single - Modena Win 27/20 :nana £2.35 Returns £1 Single - Aberdeen Win 23/10 :@ £1 Single - Draw - Koln/Hannover 23/10 :@ Also 1 x £1 5 fold which pays :hope :@ :ok Total Bets 5 Total Staked £30.00 Total Returns £24.75 Profit +/- : £5.25 - Bet Six - £6 Staked £1 Single - River Plate (Uraguay) 7/4 £1 Single - Groningen 9/5 £1 Single - Cobresal 7/4 £1 Single - NK Osijek 9/5 £1 Single - KV Kortrijk 33/20 £1 Acca on the 5 fold Pays £157ish :hope I need 3/4 teams to come in to kick start me. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Booksie Posted October 31, 2009 Author Share Posted October 31, 2009 Re: Can I make profit on this system?? Bet Six - £6 Staked £1 Single - River Plate (Uraguay) 7/4 :eyes £1 Single - Groningen 9/5 :eyes £1 Single - Cobresal 7/4 :eyes £1 Single - NK Osijek 9/5 :loon £1 Single - KV Kortrijk 33/20 :loon £1 Acca on the 5 fold Pays £157ish :hope :eyes I need 3/4 teams to come in to kick start me. :hope Total Bets 6 Total Staked £36.00 Total Returns £30.20 Profit +/- : £5.80 - Bet Seven - £6 Staked £1 Single - San Lorenzo 7/5 £1 Single - Real San Luis 5/4 (Mex) £1 Single - Cleavland Cavs to win between 6-10pts 17/4 £1 Single - NJ Nets to win between 6-10pts 27/4 £1 Single - Philli 76ers to win between 6-10pts 41/10 £1 Acca on the 5 fold Pays £1120.53 :eek :hope Here Hoping Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Booksie Posted November 1, 2009 Author Share Posted November 1, 2009 Re: Can I make profit on this system?? Bet Seven - £6 Staked £1 Single - San Lorenzo 7/5 :@ 2-2 91st min Equalizer £1 Single - Real San Luis 5/4 (Mex) 0-3 Lose :@ £1 Single - Cleavland Cavs to win between 6-10pts 17/4 :@ £1 Single - NJ Nets to win between 6-10pts 27/4 :@ £1 Single - Philli 76ers to win between 6-10pts 41/10 :@ £1 Acca on the 5 fold Pays £1120.53 :@ :hope Here Hoping Im going to take this chance to end this glory hunt now before it takes far too much money out of my pocket, was fun though ++++++++++++ END OF G/H +++++++++++++ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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