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Football betting formula


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I'm getting some data together about loads of football matches and the odds etc. and I am trying to find any patterns in the data to form a strategy. I also want to create a formula to work out any teams probability of winning based on previous form and their oppnents so that I can compare this with the odds offered by bookies. Some sites do show what they think are value bets based on a similar probability theory. I want to know if any1 has any ideas of how to create this formula. I am good at maths but I am struggling to know where to start. I am also analysing some horse racing data to find any patterns but I think it will be general patterns rather than a formula as it obviously doesn't work the same as football. Let me know if you have any ideas, thanks

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