jpquinn91 Posted October 27, 2009 Share Posted October 27, 2009 I'm getting some data together about loads of football matches and the odds etc. and I am trying to find any patterns in the data to form a strategy. I also want to create a formula to work out any teams probability of winning based on previous form and their oppnents so that I can compare this with the odds offered by bookies. Some sites do show what they think are value bets based on a similar probability theory. I want to know if any1 has any ideas of how to create this formula. I am good at maths but I am struggling to know where to start. I am also analysing some horse racing data to find any patterns but I think it will be general patterns rather than a formula as it obviously doesn't work the same as football. Let me know if you have any ideas, thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpquinn91 Posted October 27, 2009 Author Share Posted October 27, 2009 Re: Football betting formula I am thinking of creating a formula to show the probability of the number of goals instead to pick out value bets. Can anyone help or has anyone tried or seen this method? Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lardonio Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 Re: Football betting formula Maybe if you post some examples of the data you want to be considered, it's hard to give you something based on this info. If I understand you correctly you want to take the home team data vs the away team data and produce percentages for the chance of winning, drawing and losing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpquinn91 Posted October 28, 2009 Author Share Posted October 28, 2009 Re: Football betting formula Yeah, I'm looking to make a formula that calculates the probability of a team winning losing or drawing based on past results, home or away and the opposition but i'm finding it hard as I have to take into account who they've played, who they are playing and the form of the opposition. I think I have sorted out a formula for the probability of the number of goals using a poisson or normal distribution but if anyone has any tips or has tried this i would be grateful, thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoothplanet Posted October 29, 2009 Share Posted October 29, 2009 Re: Football betting formula Dixon and Coles made a paper, there's a parallel thead too. Usually results in a set of equations. Results by others was not enough to beat the bookies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gazabroad Posted October 29, 2009 Share Posted October 29, 2009 Re: Football betting formula i'm finding it hard as I have to take into account who they've played' date=' who they are playing and the form of the opposition. [/quote'] Have a look at the RFO if you can. They produce tables concerning these points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpquinn91 Posted October 31, 2009 Author Share Posted October 31, 2009 Re: Football betting formula I have finishes sorting out a formula for Under/Over and although I think it may be used better as a guide I have picked out all bets that have come out as 50% more likely than the odds offered. I have also limited it to one bet per game as it seems daft to put your eggs in the same basket. There are more to come but here are the weekends picks for the premierleague: MatchBet OddsArsenal V SpursO - 4.53.33Bolton V ChelseaO - 3.52.10Burnley V HullO - 3.52.50Man.U V BlackburnO - 4.53.33 Also the odds are all from sportingbet so it may be possible to get better odds but for the moment that would take too long. I will try and post picks from all the top leagues today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpquinn91 Posted October 31, 2009 Author Share Posted October 31, 2009 Re: Football betting formula By the way, all stakes are 1. There was 1 pick from the Bundesliga: Cologne V HannoverU - 1.52.50 I'm not putting any money on these, it is just a trial so fingers crossed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpquinn91 Posted October 31, 2009 Author Share Posted October 31, 2009 Re: Football betting formula There was 1 pick from the championship too: Sheff.U V NewcastleO - 3.52.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpquinn91 Posted October 31, 2009 Author Share Posted October 31, 2009 Re: Football betting formula And 3 picks from la liga: Real V GetafeO - 4.53.00Osasuna V BarcaU - 1.53.75Bilbao V Atl. MadridO - 3.52.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpquinn91 Posted November 1, 2009 Author Share Posted November 1, 2009 Re: Football betting formula Todays picks from serie A are : Fiorentina V CataniaU - 2.50.73Cagliari V AtalantaO - 3.53.00Siena V LazioU - 2.50.65 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpquinn91 Posted November 2, 2009 Author Share Posted November 2, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpquinn91 Posted November 7, 2009 Author Share Posted November 7, 2009 Re: Football betting formula Sorry, didn't have time to post today's picks before, so here's the reults: -3.75Watford V PrestonO - 3.52.30Lost-1.00-4.75Blackburn V PortsmouthU - 4.50.14Won0.14-4.61Man.C V BurnleyO - 4.53.70Won3.70-0.91 I only had time to look at Prem and championship so far but I'll try n do Serie A n some more for tomorrow. Good today today due to Man City and Burnley having a goalfest and these are genuine despite being posted late. Like I said I'm not putting money on yet so it didn't matter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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