nkdz Posted October 27, 2009 Share Posted October 27, 2009 I already tested this thing once in some other forum but can't find the results. If i remember correctly yield was about 11% from 100 bets so it was working well. This time i'll try with a bit bigger sample and will add few correction as well. What is it all about? Well, simply it's taking overs in underish leagues and unders in overish ones, when reputation of the specific league has big influence on the odds. It also goes for clubs. For example Wolfsburg, Werder, Hoffenheim, Atletico Madrid, Galatasaray... are known as overish teams, but odds on their overs are oftenly too low. Same goes for underish leagues like Serie B, Spanish Segunda, Russian League, where overs are heavily underrated sometimes. I'll use flat stakes, 10 pts, and line of 2.5 goals only. I decided to change my previous rule of taking only odds higher than 2.00, in some cases i will take bit lower odds if they are valuable but generally, odds will be higher than 2.00. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkdz Posted October 27, 2009 Author Share Posted October 27, 2009 Re: U/O 2.5 proven strategy Forgot to say that odds will be taken from Pinnacle only. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkdz Posted October 27, 2009 Author Share Posted October 27, 2009 Re: U/O 2.5 proven strategy 1. Ancona v Piacenza: Over 2.5 @ 2.29 2. Empoli v Triestina: Over 2.5 @ 2.18 3. Belenenses v Gil Vicente: Over 2.5 @ 2.33 4. Bristol R v Leeds: Over 2.5 @ 2.06 5. Randers v Odense: Under 2.5 @ 1.94 6. Waterford v Shelbourne: Over 2.5 @ 2.18 7. Caen v Vannes: Over 2.5 @ 2.15 8. Nantes v Laval: Over 2.5 @ 2.11 9. Guimaraes v Sporting: Over 2.5 @ 2.27 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkdz Posted October 27, 2009 Author Share Posted October 27, 2009 Re: U/O 2.5 proven strategy 1. Ancona v Piacenza: Over 2.5 @ 2.29 2. Empoli v Triestina: Over 2.5 @ 2.18 3. Belenenses v Gil Vicente: Over 2.5 @ 2.33 4. Bristol R v Leeds: Over 2.5 @ 2.06 5. Randers v Odense: Under 2.5 @ 1.94 6. Waterford v Shelbourne: Over 2.5 @ 2.18 7. Caen v Vannes: Over 2.5 @ 2.15 8. Nantes v Laval: Over 2.5 @ 2.11 9. Guimaraes v Sporting: Over 2.5 @ 2.27 Strike rate: 3-6, 33% Stake: 90 pts Return: 65 pts Balance: -25 pts Yield: -27% Not the best start but results will come sooner or later. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lardonio Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 Re: U/O 2.5 proven strategy Good luck with this, if you can keep up that yield of 11% you'll be able to retire and live the life of your dreams :) Would you tell us more about your selection process? Do you look for teams involved in high-scoring matches in lowscoring leagues? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkdz Posted October 28, 2009 Author Share Posted October 28, 2009 Re: U/O 2.5 proven strategy Good luck with this, if you can keep up that yield of 11% you'll be able to retire and live the life of your dreams :) Would you tell us more about your selection process? Do you look for teams involved in high-scoring matches in lowscoring leagues? Hehe, well i know that 11% can't be reached in long term, that was just my stats after 100 bets. I would be happy with 4-5%, and im expecting at least 3%. Yes something like that, i'm looking for underrated overs in low scoring leagues and unders in high scoring leagues. Also, some teams are tagged as high scoring ones for example Werder and Wolfsburg from BL, and there are some situations when you can see them staying under 2.5. It of course depends on a lots of things, their most recent results, missings, motivation etc. Cheers. :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkdz Posted October 28, 2009 Author Share Posted October 28, 2009 Re: U/O 2.5 proven strategy 10. Genoa v Fiorentina: Over 2.5 @ 2.03 11. Catania v Chievo: Over 2.5 @ 2.33 12. AIK v Orebro: Over 2.5 @ 2.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lardonio Posted October 28, 2009 Share Posted October 28, 2009 Re: U/O 2.5 proven strategy Good luck with this project! The O/U 2,5 market is a nice one and it should be possible to beat the bookmakers on it. That's some nice odds you are getting on the Italian matches, but for example Betfair offer 2.20 on the Swedish game. Just to let you know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkdz Posted October 28, 2009 Author Share Posted October 28, 2009 Re: U/O 2.5 proven strategy 10. Genoa v Fiorentina: Over 2.5 @ 2.03 11. Catania v Chievo: Over 2.5 @ 2.33 12. AIK v Orebro: Over 2.5 @ 2.00 Strike rate: 5-7, 42% Stake: 120 pts Return: 108.60 pts Balance: -11.40 pts Yield: -9.5% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nkdz Posted October 28, 2009 Author Share Posted October 28, 2009 Re: U/O 2.5 proven strategy Good luck with this project! The O/U 2,5 market is a nice one and it should be possible to beat the bookmakers on it. That's some nice odds you are getting on the Italian matches, but for example Betfair offer 2.20 on the Swedish game. Just to let you know. I know Betfair has better prices but decided to go with Pinnacle cause i'm using them for such bets. Thanks for your support. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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