Wiltshire Shot Posted October 23, 2009 Share Posted October 23, 2009 I've been looking at stats for a handful of away teams I thought might get a consolation goal, where they're away at teams heavily fancied to win, and I reckon I have the beginnings of a system that might be worth trialling. Looking back on 365, it seems that where a home team is somewhere between 1/2 and evens to win, the away side scores one goal (exactly) about half the time. A quick look at odds for this weekend shows that such sides are often valued at around 6/4 or 7/5 to get one goal, and certainly always better than the evvens I was expecting. Here are the English away sides that fall into the category of being away to home sides with odds of 1/2 to evens. This is a paper system; the odds of scoring one goal exactly are all better than evens, assume one unit on each: Stoke 7/5 Doncaster 6/4 Stockport 11/8 Walsall 7/5 Tranmere 6/4 Orient 7/5 Swindon 7/5 Darlington 6/4 Grimsby 6/4 Crewe 6/4 Accrington 7/5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 23, 2009 Share Posted October 23, 2009 Re: Away sides scoring once Nice idea, WS..... where do you find odds being offered on the away team to score exactly 1 goal ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted October 23, 2009 Author Share Posted October 23, 2009 Re: Away sides scoring once Nice idea' date=' WS..... where do you find odds being offered on the away team to score exactly 1 goal ?[/quote'] All on OddsChecker. On 'Stats betting' there's an option for 'team Goals' - odds for number of goals scored by each team are there. The down side is that only four bookies are listed as offering odds for this type of bet, and I reckon that they'd soon work out this is a system, so even if it works it's a 'use sparingly' option. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted October 25, 2009 Author Share Posted October 25, 2009 Re: Away sides scoring once Four came in, giving returns of 9.8 units, when I needed 11 to break even. I'll keep going so I have a representative number of games, but maybe this isn't going to be the Holy Grail I was hoping for. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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