How big a margin

[Lardonio]

Hi, I have a lot of historical data for all football betting markets, but the market I think is most fun to bet in is the correct scores market. But I'm wondering how big a margin I should calculate in order to be successful. I'm thinking - if my historical data says the odds of a 1-0 happening is 10% then of course the true odds is 10. If I can get 11 then that is a 10 percent margin, which is enough to keep most gamblers happy. But if I look at it another way it does not seem so tempting. If the true odds is 10, then again, the true chance of it happening is 10%. If the true odds is 11, then the true chance of it happening is (cirka) 9.09% There's only a (cirka) 0.91% difference in the two chances, and of course with any betting prediction data, historical data, etc. the error margin is probably bigger than 1%. This way of looking at it is more depressing the higher the odds became, for example the difference between a 40-odds and a 50-odds is, of course 10 in odds which seems a lot, but only 0.5% in chance, which is "nothing". The way the correct score markets is priced, even in betfair, I feel like I'm almost doomed using any statistical method, and I guess this applies to any betting market. I'd like your feedback on this. Is there really any point in developing betting methods based on statistics alone?

[dannkez2407]

Re: How big a margin hi GT, i do a lot round football value betting but have always struggled with horse racing, can you explain how you estimate a horse would have in your opinion a 20% chance of winning? thanks