What to look for in a trading opportunity

[emired]

Hi all, I'm relatively new to betfair trading although I've done the odd opportunistic trade in the past. I'm looking to get into it a bit more and have a bit of a strategy to follow in terms of the matches I trade on (mainly football). However, I was wondering what people look for in a trading opportunity? Obviously if it was THAT simple, everone would be trading and making a good deal of money from it. However, there must be some tell-tale signs which people notice to enable them to make a good trade. One of these signs (or so I assumed!) is taking place tonight. Fulham v Hull, Premier League. I have been on oddschecker and they suggest the lowest odds for the away win are 4.8 and the average is around 5.5. However, Betfair offer a staggering 6.6, a whole 1.8 points up on the lowest counterpart. This to me suggested that the odds for Hull winning on betfair should shorten somewhat before kick off to come more in line (but probably still a bit higher) than the average. However, since noting the price at 2pm, the odds are currently still 6.6... Obviously in terms of a trade I'm sure many people use systems such as laying the draw and backing the 0-0 to cover a potential no score draw. I've read through a couple of posts regarding this system on the forum and it seems in general people struggle. I was wondering if any top traders out there have got any tips for getting started, any systems which have potential and any internet resources to read through to get me on the road? Thanks in advance for any replies - your knowledge and help is useful and appreciated.

[Hooloovoo]

Re: What to look for in a trading opportunity :welcome to PL...! Just a note, 6.6 on betfair means 6.32 after commission. The formula is: true odds = (betfair odds x 0.95) + 0.05 :ok I wouldn't consider myself a "top trader", but here are some thoughts on the matter: Trading in-play requires a well-thought out strategy and the discipline to follow it, every time. Laying the draw with the intention to back it when a goal is scored seems trivial at first, like easy money. It is a minefield though. If the underdog scores first, the draw odds might not rise, on the contrary it might fall. If no goals are scored at all you have to trade out at a pre-specified time, e.g. 60 minutes. That way you lose maybe 30% of your liability instead of the full 100% if the match ends 0-0. Take the loss and move on. It is also very time consuming, following each match, ready to trade out. Best tips i can give you is to analyze trends, find out WHEN odds are moving and WHY. From this analysis, formulate a strategy and test it over many matches with low stakes (or paper trial). Create "what-if" scenarios and plan your actions from there.