What to look for in a trading opportunity

[emired]

Hi all, I'm relatively new to betfair trading although I've done the odd opportunistic trade in the past. I'm looking to get into it a bit more and have a bit of a strategy to follow in terms of the matches I trade on (mainly football). However, I was wondering what people look for in a trading opportunity? Obviously if it was THAT simple, everone would be trading and making a good deal of money from it. However, there must be some tell-tale signs which people notice to enable them to make a good trade. One of these signs (or so I assumed!) is taking place tonight. Fulham v Hull, Premier League. I have been on oddschecker and they suggest the lowest odds for the away win are 4.8 and the average is around 5.5. However, Betfair offer a staggering 6.6, a whole 1.8 points up on the lowest counterpart. This to me suggested that the odds for Hull winning on betfair should shorten somewhat before kick off to come more in line (but probably still a bit higher) than the average. However, since noting the price at 2pm, the odds are currently still 6.6... Obviously in terms of a trade I'm sure many people use systems such as laying the draw and backing the 0-0 to cover a potential no score draw. I've read through a couple of posts regarding this system on the forum and it seems in general people struggle. I was wondering if any top traders out there have got any tips for getting started, any systems which have potential and any internet resources to read through to get me on the road? Thanks in advance for any replies - your knowledge and help is useful and appreciated.

[Hooloovoo]

Re: What to look for in a trading opportunity :welcome to PL...! Just a note, 6.6 on betfair means 6.32 after commission. The formula is: true odds = (betfair odds x 0.95) + 0.05 :ok I wouldn't consider myself a "top trader", but here are some thoughts on the matter: Trading in-play requires a well-thought out strategy and the discipline to follow it, every time. Laying the draw with the intention to back it when a goal is scored seems trivial at first, like easy money. It is a minefield though. If the underdog scores first, the draw odds might not rise, on the contrary it might fall. If no goals are scored at all you have to trade out at a pre-specified time, e.g. 60 minutes. That way you lose maybe 30% of your liability instead of the full 100% if the match ends 0-0. Take the loss and move on. It is also very time consuming, following each match, ready to trade out. Best tips i can give you is to analyze trends, find out WHEN odds are moving and WHY. From this analysis, formulate a strategy and test it over many matches with low stakes (or paper trial). Create "what-if" scenarios and plan your actions from there.

[emired]

Re: What to look for in a trading opportunity Thanks for the warm welcome! You're spot on about the Betfair commission - always something which must be taken into consideration! Betfred have moved quickly on the Fulham v Hull market and drifted right out to 6.5 in the last half hour! Sportingbet still offer 4.8 whilst the average continues to be 5.5. I thought the news that Jimmy Bullard is back might have shortened Hull's odds a bit, especially with people getting home from work and playing the markets. but it appears not necessarily so! The prices generally seem to be stable at the moment although that will probably all change in the next hour or so in the run up to kick off. It's damn hard work reading which way the odds may go and I guess it's all a bit of pot luck and obviously dependant on many factors in the same way the stock market would be.

[froment]

Re: What to look for in a trading opportunity :welcome to PL, Emired! If you scroll down today posts at PL, you can find an interesting thread, http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f25/patience-virtue-making-money-91823/, which deals with opportunity to trade before start of the game; you'll see it's not as simple as it looks from your post, and case that you noticed higher odds than in other bookies is usual thing for BetFair - all odds there are approximatelly 20% higher than anywhere else, but as Hooloovoo explained, you need to deduct commission there. So, trading prior to kick off would be, in my opinion, very time consuming in comparison with profit it can yield. Therefore, remains trading in-play, when change in odds are much higher and faster. Basically, when match starts, some odds start drifting up, the other start steaming down, and trend goes on as long as there is no goal; if the game is goalless, odds have steady trend up or down, untill they reach 1.01 or 1000, and finally dissapear from the market. Though, when a goal is scored, odds take sudden rise or drop, and that's where value lies, if you're able to identify who and when will score. Odds for home and away win, odds for all over markets (over 1.5 goals, over 2.5 goals, etc.) and odds for total goals drift up after kick-off, but in case of goal, they suddenly drop down (except home/away - if home team scores a goal, odds on away win drift up, and vice versa); on the contrary, odds for all under markets steam down after kick-off, and in case of a goal they suddenly rise up. As for draw, as Hooloovoo already explained, too, change of odds depends on which team scores the goal. For under/over markets, change of odds is extremely high if goal is scored at the beginning of the match; closer the end of the match, lower change in odds in case of goal; for example, if first goal is scored no sooner than about 80 to 85 minute, odds for over/under 2.5 goals even might not change more than several ticks - which is understandable, as it's unlikely two more goals to come in for only ten minutes; on the contrary, changes in match odds are higher when goal is scored close to the end of the match - which is understandable, too, as the oposing team has less and less time to equalize. In the light of above examples, traders are clearly divided into two groups: those who believe there will be no goals, and those who expect goals. The first group, where I belong myself, enters the market, looks odds changing in their favour (if they backed, odds drop; if they layed, odds rise) as long as there are no goals (or no more goals, if they entered market after goals have been scored), and exit market when they are satisfied with amount of green; naturally, if the goal is scored before trading out, they are exposed to lose more or less of their stake. The second group enters the market, looks odds drifting away from them (if they backed, odds continue to rise; if they layed, odds drop down), and wait for a goal which will switch direction of change, so they can trade out in green; if there is no goal at all, they are exposed to loss, too - that's why Hooloovoo advised exiting the market at certain point, to decrease losses. It's up to you to decide which approach is appropriate for you, and to follow behaviour of odds, which will allow you to make fine tune of your trades...

[emired]

Re: What to look for in a trading opportunity Super post Froment thanks for the detailed explaination. That does indeed make perfect sense and makes for very interesting reading. Having read through it twice, it now seems clear that little money is available in the long run trading pre-match. I'll look further into the overs/unders market and can see why the money could lie here. I will paper trade the 2.5 goals market for a while and see how I get on! :clap

[Hooloovoo]

Re: What to look for in a trading opportunity Good luck emired. Very good post froment :clap It all comes down to IF and WHEN a goal is scored. No-one can know, but taking into account what the majority of punters believe, you can see that reflects into the odds movements as the match goes along. When a goal is scored, people are rushing to settle their bets (back or lay) and the market swings alot odds-wise before stabilising. As froment stated, there are certain advantages belonging to that "first group". If, for example, you back "Under 2.5 goals" at 2.00 As the match go by, the odds will steam down further and further, and your potential profit is increasing. If you trade out at say 1.60 you make a nice profit. But if a goal is scored early on, then the odds for "Under 2.5" will go up, say to 3.10 But as soon as the market has "calmed down" the price will continue to steam down, so the odds moves in your favour. Once it has passed 2.00 you are back in profit. The time between the goal and the price coming back down to 2.00 is your "losing zone", and you want to spend as little time as possible in that zone. The length of that zone varies greatly from match to match and, again, depends on the majority's conception of the outcome.

[emired]

Re: What to look for in a trading opportunity Thanks for your advice Hooloovoo! I successfully traded both the Fulham and Leeds games yesterday by laying the draw and backing it once a goal had been scored. I'm only using small stakes for small profits at the moment but it went well. I also traded the unders market on the Fulham game, backing under 2.5 goals and when it was 0-0 after 30 minutes, made a successful trade to lock in my profit. I also noticed on the Az Alkmaar v Arsenal game that Alkmaar's odds at 8.2 were far and away higher than the standard odds on this game of around 7. I backed Alkmaar at that price and lo and behold just 5 minutes ago noticed the odds have reduced to 8 to lock in a small profit (but profit nonetheless!). It's just a matter of creating a staking plan which will enable me to slowly but surely build my bank - I also need to try and get betangel working again so I don't have to wait 7 seconds in play for my bet to be placed!... very frustrating!!