Nottingham 15th Oct

[chris34]

3.40 Nottingham Ella looks a very attractive bet in an open field won 2 valuable handicaps back end of last year on heavy ground, so ground is no concern was raised 9 for those efforts but is now dropped back 2lb after finishing a promising 4th last time out. 0.5pt e/w Ella 8/1 bet365

[StuSimmy]

Re: Nottingham 15th Oct 15.40 Nottingham Very tough race this and I managed to get my shortlist down to 4: Charlie Cool Alcalde Elliptical Lord Theo The draw bias for this race according to the ATR is high and the highest drawn out of my 4 is in stall 9 out of 16 runners so its not even close to the top end. Charlie Cool - Has 2 wins over 10 furlongs to date, both in valuable races at Nad Al Sheba off marks of 102 and 97. Has also got a course win over 8 furlongs off a mark of 104. Runs off 87 today so is very well handicaped. Ran on Good To Soft ground 2 outings ago finishing 2nd when staying on well at York over the distance, that was off a mark of 94. Should be a strong pace to the race today and this one will be running on at the end so today may be the day he gets his head back in front. In saying that, I do feel others have stronger claims. Alcalde - Like most of Johnston's horses, this one likes to be up with the pace, preferably in the lead. Will have a bit of a battle up front today with several other horses in the race that like to lead. I think the horse may be happy enough to sit in behind if the pace is really strong and I think this would be the horses best chances of winning rather than getting into a battle for the lead. Horse is lightly raced, has won 3 races, once over the distance, once over a furlong further which was LTO (due to that win the horse is raised 6lbs) and once over 8 furlongs. Two of those 3 wins was on soft going so the ground will be fine for the horse today. Elliptical - Another one who likes to be up with the pace and another that is lightly raced with only 7 runs to date. Has 2 wins to his name already, once over the distance and once over 8 furlongs. Has won on soft going so the ground should not pose a problem today. Did not run great LTO over 7 furlongs off the same mark he runs off today but the step back up to 10 furlongs may just be what he needs. Worth watching. Lord Theo - I feel this horse has a great chance today at a nice price. Has 6 wins to date, 3 of those have came over today's distance and have all been at Newmarket this season. Is only 3 lbs higher than his latest win today. Last 3 runs can be ignored, was held up LTO which does not suit his racing style as he likes to track the leaders, was also over 12 furlongs, stumbled out the stalls 2 outings ago and the race at Haydock was a bit out of his depth and the trip was too far I feel. Has won good to soft before so the ground won't trouble him. The strong pace that looks to be set today will suit him perfectly. Has the highest draw out of my 4 shortlisted as well. At the moment I think I will have each way bets on Alcalde and Lord Theo, with Lord Theo being the main selection. May end up having each way bets on all 4 but I doubt it. Prices on betfair currently for the 4 in order of my list are: 14, 9.6, 16 and 23.