dannkez2407 Posted October 12, 2009 Share Posted October 12, 2009 an idea popped in my head when perusing betfair earlier, i was looking at the odds of the england-belarus game on draw no bet. you could back belarus at 4.8 and the current lay odds were at 50, obviously totally out of sync with what they will be come matchday, no doubt levelling out somewhere at around back - 5.0 and lay - 5.2. so what if you put on an unmatched bet at 40 to back belarus, meaning it would be the first in line in the lay section at 40 for a punter to come along and take that up, now if some fool takes the lay odds at 40, by matchday it should have dropped down to around 5-6ish and you have a huge green up potentially. does this happen and do ppl currently attempt this for a mug to come along and snap up the lay odds? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted October 12, 2009 Share Posted October 12, 2009 Re: early trading on betfair Now back is 29 and lay is 30....? :unsure What makes you think it will get down to about 5 ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 12, 2009 Author Share Posted October 12, 2009 Re: early trading on betfair perhaps 5 is a little optimistic LOL, if the current backing match odds (i think) are at around 25, cant actually get on betfair at min to check than you would expect the draw no bet odds to finish lower than this at least, maybe around 10-15 then. but if you are saying the lay odds are at 30 already then my 40 lay bet will be out the window now :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted October 12, 2009 Share Posted October 12, 2009 Re: early trading on betfair Very risky strategy. Avoid! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted October 12, 2009 Share Posted October 12, 2009 Re: early trading on betfair Ah, missed that you were talking about DNB, i looked at the match odds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted October 12, 2009 Share Posted October 12, 2009 Re: early trading on betfair Very risky strategy. Avoid! Why is it risky? If you succeed you have a back bet at the outsider at 40, can't be wrong? It must be very rare that these bets do get through tho Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maroon Heaven Posted October 12, 2009 Share Posted October 12, 2009 Re: early trading on betfair Always happens and does happen.... You get a goal scored in a match and the price moves into 1.3.. Someone always puts up 13 Great one for it is the finacials where there is little money and you have the back at 1.02 and the lay at 10.30 or something similar. You go to green out and you are screwed. Sharp minds remember Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 12, 2009 Author Share Posted October 12, 2009 Re: early trading on betfair surely if you try to back at around 40 like in my example and you know the odds are going to drop considerably to around 10-15, if someone takes the lay at 40 you are laughin, if they dont you havent lost anything, you can cancel the bet once the market stabilises. where is the risk in that??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted October 12, 2009 Share Posted October 12, 2009 Re: early trading on betfair Well there is no risk, and you don't even have to cancel the bet since all unmatched bets gets cancelled at KO (if you don't specify you want to let it ride) But, as mentioned, it's gotta be really hard getting one of these bets matched? Basically your'e relying on someone else to make a huge mistake. But again, since it's virtually risk-free, why not :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 12, 2009 Author Share Posted October 12, 2009 Re: early trading on betfair Well there is no risk, and you don't even have to cancel the bet since all unmatched bets gets cancelled at KO (if you don't specify you want to let it ride) But, as mentioned, it's gotta be really hard getting one of these bets matched? Basically your'e relying on someone else to make a huge mistake. But again, since it's virtually risk-free, why not :tongue2 haha, i know what im doin tonight, theres gotta be some mugs out there :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted October 12, 2009 Share Posted October 12, 2009 Re: early trading on betfair make sure you post a pic of your amazing "I backed them at 85" bet :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 12, 2009 Author Share Posted October 12, 2009 Re: early trading on betfair make sure you post a pic of your amazing "I backed them at 85" bet :loon :rollinit will make me laugh if someone takes the bet, like maroon sed earlier tho i have seen it myself happen in play when someone puts the wrong odds down. ive backed belarus at 40 on the draw no bet so just waiting for someone to accept the lay odds :hope:hope:hope:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted October 12, 2009 Share Posted October 12, 2009 Re: early trading on betfair Have to admit i'm a bit lost on the logic of all this, any chance of a rpint screen wehn you green up as i cannot see how this works. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted October 12, 2009 Share Posted October 12, 2009 Re: early trading on betfair Ignore last thread , think i've got it now. Surely the risk is though that your back odds are taken at 40 and then the lay odds keep rising (fairly unlikely i know) but still not risk free. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maroon Heaven Posted October 12, 2009 Share Posted October 12, 2009 Re: early trading on betfair No Risk - The market is 1.06 and 1.07.... Not much money in it or its still away off from happening. Instead of 1.07 you put up 17.00.... So the market reads To back 1.06.....17.00 on lay side. You need someone in a rush and a market which is either early, finishing shortly and small liquidity or a lifted suspend. I've seen it done and I've also been close to press the confirm button on it. You can also do the reverse and say a football is losing and market is 12.00 .... 12.20 you can put in 1.20. Again you need to be quick and watch the market for liquidity. Sharp minds folks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timstertoo Posted October 27, 2009 Share Posted October 27, 2009 Re: early trading on betfair Ignore last thread , think i've got it now. Surely the risk is though that your back odds are taken at 40 and then the lay odds keep rising (fairly unlikely i know) but still not risk free. Doesn't matter as long as you keep your betsize small enough that it doesn't hurt you if you can't trade it out. The bet itself has enough value because of the ridiculous odds. The only thing that is important is that your bank is big enough to do it enough times to get your eventual payout. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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