Chepstow Sat 10th October

[bowles10]

Expected to see some NH boys about today, ....... This is normally the day the season takes off with top trainers in action, Nicholls has already won the first race & had 4 winners on the card last year I am looking at the 4.10, back later

[bowles10]

Re: Chepstow Sat 10th October 4.10 Chepstow 2m 110yds, Class2, Good Trenchant 6 runs - 2 wins, 1 place Form this season - 6 Ignore the last effort in May at Punchestown when 6th of 8th behind the best irish novice last season Mikael D'Hagunet. The ground was very heavy that day. Its record over 2m last season as a novice was 1-2-1 before it finished 10l behind Zaynar in the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham. Last years winner of this race Crack away Jack also came out of Cheltenham & this should be noted. Seems to prefer a bit of cut in the ground & Trainer Alan King has a 18% SR here. Any Given Day 4 runs - 3 wins 1 place Form this season - 1112 Been in great form through the summer picking up a hat trick of novice victories in lower class races over distances between 16f-19f incl 2 wins at Market Rasen. Was 2nd in 1st handicap last time out at Market Rasen & likes fast ground. Trainer doesnt often visit & is only 1 from 12 over 5 years. Helium 7 runs - 3 wins 2 places Form this season - Ran 8th in the Fred Winters Juvenile at Cheltenham behind Silk affair, Pulled up at Ascot on final start. Won a Sandown nov hurdle last year earninbg a rating of 130. was then 3rd off 143 at Ascot behind Hebridean & Saticon. Saticon from Kings yard went on to finish 3rd at Cheltenham. I can't see this one beating Trenchant today from Kings yard. Likes a bit of cut also. Gifford is 2 from 14 here over 5 years. First trim 3 runs - 2 wins Form this season - 511 you don't see many sprinters turning into 2m jumps horses however bred by miler acclamation who has sired some reasonable hurdlers. Has won 2 races in Ireland but is an outside on my book today against these decent hurdlers. Will be outpaced. Classic Swain 8 runs - 4 wins 3 places Form this season -2112 You cannot rule out Nicholls winning any race here. I have looked back through the form to see what it has beaten & not found much to be honest. Wlsh has only ridden it once & won on it. Likes the ground & will be handy throughout but is prone to mistakes. Nampour 6 runs - 1 win 1 place Form this season - Fit from a recent run on the flat. Was soundly beaten by decent novice Walkon last year. Gets a stone off the top weight but may find this too testing on this difficult track. Ray Diamond 8 runs - 2 wins, 1 place Form this season - will need the run & well behind Helium at Kempton in the race won by Hebridean (although 7lb better off today). Needs cut in the ground. Trainer is 0 from 10 here. Balzaccio 6 runs - 1 win, 2 places Form this season - Outclassed at Cheltenham, has a low weight today & should win races but this looks beyond it today. Kings second string today. James De Vassy 3 runs - 1 win Form this season - won on debut but seems to need soft or heavy so cannot put this in the shake up today. Trainer is 3 from 28 here. Conclusion TRENCHANT has to give 7lb to promising novice Any Given day & nearly a stone to Classic Swain from all conquering Nicholls yard. If King has got Trenchant fit enough i think it could go close with Classic Swain the one to beat from the front. Nicholls horse can make mistakes & hasnt beaten much to be honest. The shortlisted 3 are Trenchant, Any Given day & Classic Swain. Looking at the prices the 7/1 on offer for Trenchant stands out I can now back EW at that price & i am surprised there is money for Nampour who is 2nd fav at 7/2. I will have a saver on Any Given day also. Bets Trenchant 7/1 Corals 2pts EW Any Given day 7/2 Corals 1pt win

[bowles10]

Re: Chepstow Sat 10th October in the lucky last race, might be worth taking a second look at Twiston Davies horse Grafwin against the odds on Nicholls horse I like to keep an eye on NTD bumpers especially as he now has Carl Llewelyn working with him. :ok 5.20 Grafwin EW