Alexmac's NH Thread 2009/10

[alexmac]

Have not anticipated a NH season as much as the forthcoming 2009/10 season. After following NH horses in detail for about 5 years now, I am starting to spot the type of horses I like early on and follow them over the years. The last 2 threads I have run have been successful, ending in profit. I am going to take the same format from the latest flat season thread onto this new thread. Starting bank - 200pts Horses SP 5/1 or more - 1pt E/W Horses SP less than 5/1 - 2pts win Bets will be placed at Paddy Power, to take advantage of their 'BOG' and various special offers and refunds they put on throughout the season. The main crux of the thread is that I have selected a 'stable' of horses to follow. This stable coming from a list I have been working on for the last few years, with some additions from reading I have been doing with regards to the forthcoming NH thread. The list comprises of novices, hurdlers, chasers, Gold Cup types, bumper horses.... Basically, a bit of everything. So, heres to a successful jumps season to everyone here on the PL. I will be posting up the first of the advised bets as soon as I have totally finalised my list of horses, most probably later on this week. Hoping to meet up with fellow PLers this season too. Have obviously met alot of you at PL meets, but as Bowles has mentioned in his thread - it would be reat to encourage more people along to race days etc. All the best and good luck, Alex :ok

[TheRat]

Re: Alexmac's NH Thread 2009/10 Good luck Alex :ok

[bowles10]

Re: Alexmac's NH Thread 2009/10 GL Alex I am working on mine & will kick off soon also

[chris34]

Re: Alexmac's NH Thread 2009/10 good luck alex, we will av to meet soon you really arent that far away will have to get myself down to ascot one day this winter ;)

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's NH Thread 2009/10 Aiteen Thirtythree (IRE) Alaivan (IRE) Alfie Sherrin (GB) Aran Concerto (IRE) Ballybriggan (IRE) Barbers Shop (GB) Bensalem (IRE) Big Buck's (FR) Big Zeb (IRE) Binocular (FR) Bouggler (GB) Cappa Bleu (IRE) Cooldine (IRE) Copper Bleu (IRE) Deauville Flyer (GB) Definity (IRE) Denman (IRE) Diamond Brook (IRE) Diamond Harry (GB) Doeslessthanme (IRE) Dunguib (IRE) Equus Maximus (IRE) Finian's Rainbow (IRE) Great Endeavour (IRE) Inchidaly Rock (IRE Kangaroo Court (IRE) Karabak (FR) Kauto Star (FR) Killyglen (IRE) Lidar (FR) Mac Aeda (GB) Manyriverstocross (IRE) Master Minded (FR) Master of Arts (USA) Michel Le Bon (FR) Mikael D'haguenet (FR) Noble Alan (GER) Oscar Whisky (IRE) Pandorama (IRE) Premier Sagas (FR) Pride Of Dulcote (FR) Prince Taime (FR) Punchestowns (FR) Qozak (FR) Quantitativeeasing (IRE) Quwetwo (GB) Rare Bob (IRE) Reve De Sivola (FR) Riverside Theatre (GB) Royal Charm (FR) Solwhit (FR) Somersby (IRE) Sports Line (IRE) Starluck Steady Tiger (IRE) Stormy Weather (FR) Tarablaze (IRE) Tasheba (GB) The Betchworth Kid (GB) Tocca Ferro (FR) Turbo Island (GB) Vino Griego (FR) Voler La Vedette (IRE) Walkon (FR) Wishfull Thinking (GB) Zaynar (FR)

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's NH Thread 2009/10 Bet 1 - VOLER LA VEDETTE - 15.45 Punchestown First bet of the thread, and the new NH season takes me to Ireland for a decent enough looking Mares only hurdle. The Colm Murphy trained mare has won 4 from 6 starts and won twice in October last year. Infact, she has only been unplaced on one occasion, when seen finishing 5th at Fairyhouse in April. The trainer holds her in very high regard, stating that they are going to target her at the 'better class' of races this year. Surely an indication that she has come on since last seen in May, and should be a force to be reckoned with when she does run this season. 2pts win

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's NH Thread 2009/10 Voler La Vedette wins nicely at Punchestown today at 5/2, to give the new thread a nice start. Win bets - 1 Wins - 1 Losses - 0 Bank - 205pts P/L - +5

[diamond1924]

Re: Alexmac's NH Thread 2009/10 Good luck Alex. I tried something similar on the flat this year but ran out of steam keeping the thread going even though it was in decent profit. I was going to try a less full version on the new jumps season, I had compiled a similar list to yours (I was going to pick away at some of Jim Goldie and Lucinda Russell's too), and had got a copy of One Jump Ahead last month for the stable tours and just some general brain training, many of your list were on mines but as I've not got the discipline, so will watch and root for you, maybe even follow it for a while. Good luck!

[bowles10]

Re: Alexmac's NH Thread 2009/10 Nice start Alex. :ok

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's NH Thread 2009/10 Bet 2 - KANGAROO COURT - 17.00 Cheltenham Winner of 3 from 6 of his races already, Kangaroo Court runs for the second time this season in a small field 2 and a half mile chase at Cheltenham tomorrow. Looks like a very good opportunity to prove that he can handle the track, after disappointing in the Supreme Novices at the Festival. He has won since that poor run, with a very decent display of jumping at Lingfield and another decent win recently at Uttoxeter. Jack Doyle gets on well with the horse and takes the ride again tomorrow, with the ground in Kangaroo Court's favour he should win this without too much hassle. 2pts win

[mileni4uk]

Re: Alexmac's NH Thread 2009/10 Nice winners, mate. Kangaroo Court won well and looks a decent prospect. Drifted a bit as well. Odds on was a bit short for me, but missed the drift. Would have probably been on him. Definitely one to keep on the right side for the next months.

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's NH Thread 2009/10 Yeah, he drifted out and went off the EVS favourite. Kangaroo Court looked like a really nice prospect yesterday. A few erratic jumps around half way round, but he quickened up nicely up the hill, and held off the challengers. His win keeps up the good start to the season for the thread, long may it continue... :) Win bets - 2 Wins - 2 Losses - 0 Bank - 207pts P/L - +7

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's NH Thread 2009/10 Have added Starluck onto the list. He was a nice hurdler last year, who appears to have progressed nicely over the break. His win yesterday was ridiculous, did not even break a sweat. Certainly one to have on your side this season IMO.

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's NH Thread 2009/10 Bet 3 - PRIDE OF DULCOTE - Worcester 15.50 My third bet of the season sees me backing a Ditcheat runner for the first time this season. I am sure there will be many many Ditcheat runners over the next few months... Tomorrow, smart hurdler Pride Of Dulcote jumps his first fence in public after a summer break. According to Nicholls, he has schooled well, and with Nicholls being so open about his horses' chances I am very confident that we will see a very decent novice chaser tomorrow. Unfortunately, only 3 others line up in this heat, thus restricting the price to what will probably be an odds on shot. However, in the field of 4 there is some decent opposition. Captain Americo is no slouch, and Any Currency has the big advantage of already having had a run this season, however, I do think that Pride Of Dulcote will have too much for this field. I am sure that the Nicholls team will have far superior races in mind for this exciting prospect later on in the season. 2pts win

[bowles10]

Re: Alexmac's NH Thread 2009/10 another winner Alex. Skinny odds but this one could go far, i assume the RSA chase?

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's NH Thread 2009/10 He has been cut across the board for the RSA Chase mate. That round of jumping was perfect. If he can keep on progressing then he is definately a force to be reckoned with. Shame about the odds yesterday, as the others in the field were no mugs, but Nicholls is so open about his horses chances, and I think that reflected in the price of Pride of Dulcote yesterday - he was ALWAYS going to win this one... Win bets - 3 Wins - 3 Losses - 0 Bank - 208pts P/L - +8

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's NH Thread 2009/10 Bet 4 – DOESLESSTHANME – Carlisle – 2.40 An exciting novice chaser from the powerful Howard Johnson yard makes his seasonal debut today. He was only ever beaten by 2 horses last season, in the smart Alfie Flits and Knockara Beau – who both went on to have highly successful seasons. These 2 defeats both came in black type races, so his record of 5 wins from 7 is impressive. He has decent track form, and has won over todays distance. Howard Johnson is a prolific trainer at the track, with a respectable 24% strike rate with his chasers. He has nominated this horse as his ‘one to follow’ for the season, and it would be no surprise if he won today, at odds of around 3/1. 2pts win

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's NH Thread 2009/10 Doeslessthanme finishes 2nd, a disappointing 12 lengths behind the very well backed Fiendish Flame. From reading about the race it seems as though Doeslessthanme didn't quite stay the trip, however, I think that perhaps the ground caught him out and he ended up being badly outpaced. His jumping appears to have been sound, with the exception of one error, so he is certainly one to keep on side. Will be interesting to see under what conditions he next appears... Win bets - 4 Wins - 3 Losses - 1 Bank - 206pts P/L - +6

[RuleBritannia]

Re: Alexmac's NH Thread 2009/10

Doeslessthanme finishes 2nd, a disappointing 12 lengths behind the very well backed Fiendish Flame. From reading about the race it seems as though Doeslessthanme didn't quite stay the trip, however, I think that perhaps the ground caught him out and he ended up being badly outpaced. His jumping appears to have been sound, with the exception of one error, so he is certainly one to keep on side. Will be interesting to see under what conditions he next appears... Win bets - 4 Wins - 3 Losses - 1 Bank - 206pts P/L - +6

Not too sure about him not staying mate.... he finished like a train. Came from nowhere to take second place. I do think he was ridden too patiently though, as if to safely get the trip, rather than just cutting loose and going for it earlier. That's just my reading of the race...

[mileni4uk]

Re: Alexmac's NH Thread 2009/10 The winner ran them ragged. Something like a mini Denman performance in Gold Cup 2008. They were all strugling with the pace set and only Songe was able to keep up the tempo for most of the time, but paid for it. Doeslessthanme has actually done exremely well to finish 2nd and all the jockeys were just thinking of 2nd place and finishing the race. They had a chance if they were a group and eventually catching the winner at the end, but from the 1st furlong all the field was detached.

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's NH Thread 2009/10 Bet 5 – DEAUVILLE FLYER – Doncaster 16.05 Somewhat of a surprise to see Deauville Flyer continue to run on the flat, but I am going to include this bet on the NH thread as I am pretty certain that next time we see him he will be competing in hurdle events. A lightly raced 3 year old, having only raced 7 times, Deauville Flyer is probably still open to improvement. He is in good nick, with his last 2 races seeing him finish 2^nd and 1^st, only being beaten a length by Dulcie last time out at York. The 3 year old has shown he is capable of running well on the forecast soft ground aswell, having won at Haydock on heavy going the start before last. Another positive is the fact that he has already won at Doncaster. Hopefully, there will not me more than 2 non runners, thus allowing 4 places on an each way bet. Forcasted price – 6/1. This will almost certainly be his last run on the flat of the season, before making a hurdles bow in the next few months, as Tim Easterby has already described him as being a lovely prospect over hurdles. 1pt E/W

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's NH Thread 2009/10 My copy and paste from my work computer didn't work very well this morning - I took the 4/1 for Deauville Flyer. Didn't run a bad race, as finished 3rd after drawing well clear with the eventual winner and runner up. The winner is clearly improving, and I think that Deauville Flyer has certainly got a bit more in him too. Certainly one to keep an eye on in the future.

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's NH Thread 2009/10 Win bets - 5 Wins - 3 Places - 2 Losses - 1 Bank - 206pts P/L - +6

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's NH Thread 2009/10 Bets 6 and 7 - AITEEN THIRTYTHREE AND REVE DE SIVOLA - Chepstow 13.20 With 'to follow' lists, you often get the same horses running in races against one and other. This happens here, and if I am to make a profit out of the race I am going to have to be quite lucky, as Reve De Sivola is likely to be a very short price... Saying that, I must stick to the 'formula' of the thread, as by not doing so in the past I have missed out on some very nice winners :( With absolutely no recent form to go on, the 6 runners in the 13.20 are all making their seasonal bow, and it looks like a very interesting little race. The Nicholls trained Aiteen Thirtythree is an ex English Pointer who has been bought by the Denman connections to run over hurdles this year with the intention of eventually going chasing with him. He won his bumper at the Welsh venue last year, after being well backed to do so, and he returns there tomorrow for his first hurdles race. He beat Qroktou in his bumper, who has gone on to win a decent race at Newbury. In Chepstow bumper that pair drew a mile clear of the field, so the form is clearly very good. I expect him to make a decent debut here tomorrow, we all know he will have been schooled very well, and he must have every chance. However, the one he will have to beat is Reve De Sivola. Having only ever been beaten by Walkon, Zaynar, R De Rien Sivola and Simarian, he has some excellent form in the book, none more so than he very impressive sixth in the Triumph at last years festival. If he picks up where he left off then he will be very hard to beat this season. The forecast price does not hugely instill confidence, as he may well be odds on, but I guess he has the form to justify that price, against a relatively unknown field. One slight concern is that he has never won, but surely it is only a matter of time before that statistic has changed....? 2pts AITEEN THIRTYTHREE win @ 6/5 2pts REVE DE SIVOLA win @ 6/4

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's NH Thread 2009/10 Bets 8 and 9 ALFIE SHERRIN AND PRINCE TAIME - Chepstow 13.55 Once gain, 2 of my horses to follow oppose each other here, this time in a really interesting listed hurdle race. Hobbs states that he is unsure as to where Prince Taime will end up this season, There is the option to go chasing with him, but he is on record as saing that if he makes a successful start over hurdles the that is where he might stay. He has ran some very good races in the past, winning 4 from 9 and being placed a further 4 times - showing great consistency. He sees this distance out, and must have a chance of placing here. Richard Johnson never instils confidence, and he takes the ride tomorrow, which may be viewed as a slight negative, but he is clearly a talented horse who may have the class to win a number of races like this this season. Alfie Sherrin has the same connection sas the previously mentioned Aitenn Thirtythree, and like the forementionned, has also won at this track. Infact, Alfie Sherrin has never lost and is being tipped as a very exciting prospect this season. A real galloper, there is talk of him being aimed at the RSA chase at the festival. This raises a slight concern that this trip may be slightly on the short side, and he may actually need a bit further, but with the class this horse possesses he must be given a chance here. 2pts win ALFIE SHERRIN @ 7/4 1pt E/W PRINCE TAIME @ 9/1

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's NH Thread 2009/10 Bet 10 - NOBLE ALAN - 15.25 Aintree Really nice looking horse who won last years Scottish Champion hurdle in good style, before impressing recently on his chasing bow at Hexham. That day he displkayed a perfect round of jumping, and quickened very nicely to win very cosily. Tomorrow, AP McCoy takes the ride on the grey, and he will be hard to beat in a very small field, where he may well just get his own way again. Likely to be a short price, at around EVS, but this could prove very good value nonetheless. I am really taken by his jumping style, and would not be surprised if he wa contesting in some very decent races at the AIntree or Cheltenham festivals come the end of the season. The form of the Scottish Champion Hurdle is holding, with Snap Tie recently winning over fences, and I think that Noble Alan will prove very difficult to beat this season. 2pts WIN @ 4/9

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's NH Thread 2009/10 Going to be away for a week, in the USA. Most probably will not be able to post up reasoning for allbets, but WILL be placing the bets. I will keep the P/L up to date, and comment on any wins losses win I get back next Sunday. All the best :)

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's NH Thread 2009/10 Bets - 10 Wins - 4 Places - 2 Losses - 4 Bank - 200.5pts P/L - +0.5

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's NH Thread 2009/10 Since I ave been away: Stormy Weather - 2nd (-2pts) Cappa Bleu - 3rd (-2pts) Dunuib - 1st (+0.5pts) Total for missing day (Sunday) = - 3.5pts Win bets - 13 Wins - 5 Places - 2 Losses - 6 Bank - 197pts P/L - -3pts

[alexmac]

Re: Alexmac's NH Thread 2009/10 Coming very close with a number of bets that have gone down this weekend. Looks like the very top yards are not quite firing on all cylinders just yet. Dunguib wins, but at a nonsensical price, Cappa Bleu disappoints, finishing behind one of my horses to follow from last year - Door Boy. Stormy Weather finises 2nd. On Saturday, Aiteen Thirtythree was very badly beaten, a was Alfie Sherrin. I am sure that these horses will win races this year, but looks like I may have to wait a while to recoup any of these losses...