paul2009 Posted October 6, 2009 Share Posted October 6, 2009 :welcome:welcome:welcome I have been paper testing an away system and it has thrown up excellent results, so i thought i'd test it further on here:D. Wont go into much detail yet about it, apart from saying it combines price of home team and the supremacy rating from RF Outlook... As always, paper testing works fine till you actually try it for real. But if it works, ill give full details. I am gonna try this and my stakes are as follows.... 25 Points for one lay, on betfair prices... Lays are as follows : Bury v Tranmere..... Lay tranmere @ 3.2 Tamworth v York.....Lay york @ 2.98 Prices were checked @ 18: 45:ok :drums :rollin:rollin:rollinThis time next year....:rollin:rollin:rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 6, 2009 Share Posted October 6, 2009 Re: Away lay system hi paul, i like the principle. Whats the normal home odds on games like these? Have you tested the system against historical data? :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paul2009 Posted October 6, 2009 Author Share Posted October 6, 2009 Re: Away lay system No, dont know how to do this! Can u let me know how:D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HampshireIan Posted October 6, 2009 Share Posted October 6, 2009 Re: Away lay system So am I right in thinking that by "laying" Tranmere you are hoping that they will either draw or lose? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bednar9 Posted October 6, 2009 Share Posted October 6, 2009 Re: Away lay system If your laying them don't you also have to have the liability? I've always been interested in laying, especially for a system such as this but I don't know if I could afford the liability with the stake I want to put on with the odds offered. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 7, 2009 Share Posted October 7, 2009 Re: Away lay system No' date=' dont know how to do this! Can u let me know how:D[/quote'] unlucky paul on the tamworth game. football-data.co.uk is the best site out there for checking hisotrical data ive had a quick look and when away odds are between 2.5 and 3.5, 87% result in home win or draw. Meaning value lay odds should be around 7ish, hence getting odds of between 2.5 and 3.5 should be extremely profitable in the long run. i will watch this with a lo of interst paul - good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PERFECT Posted October 7, 2009 Share Posted October 7, 2009 Re: Away lay system ive had a quick look and when away odds are between 2.5 and 3.5, 87% result in home win or draw With away odd between 2.5 and 3.5 about 70% of games finish with home win or draw, not 87%. From h2hstats, looking at 3012 matches. Good luck Paul, will follow with interest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 7, 2009 Share Posted October 7, 2009 Re: Away lay system With away odd between 2.5 and 3.5 about 70% of games finish with home win or draw, not 87%. From h2hstats, looking at 3012 matches. Good luck Paul, will follow with interest. depends which leagues you look at Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PERFECT Posted October 7, 2009 Share Posted October 7, 2009 Re: Away lay system Looking at all leagues Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 7, 2009 Share Posted October 7, 2009 Re: Away lay system Looking at all leagues yes but individual leagues will have a higher strike rate, my stats were based on the epl, if you thought spain for example lacked the strike rate for this you would steer clear of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PERFECT Posted October 7, 2009 Share Posted October 7, 2009 Re: Away lay system Haven’t seen that you mean English Premier with 87% strike rate. In that case it’s about 76% out of 55 games. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawalahmed Posted October 7, 2009 Share Posted October 7, 2009 Re: Away lay system Anyway, depend how many year or particular season, so PERFECT your 55 games is one season or combination of 2 season and which season, therefore u can assume somedody is wrong without finding ur result verywell. Paul Goodluck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PERFECT Posted October 7, 2009 Share Posted October 7, 2009 Re: Away lay system Lawalahmed, try to give a look at h2hstats, i was talking about the last 8 months available on this site. With away odd between 2.5 and 3.5 , there are 55 Premier L. games. And, if you want the correct strike rate, there are 16 away win out of 55, so 71% of winning bets (between 2.5 and 3.5) Between 2.76 and 3.25 the strike rate is 76%, as writen above. You can check one or more years and you’ll NEVER find a 87% strike rate. I always check the numbers before talking. And you? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 7, 2009 Share Posted October 7, 2009 Re: Away lay system perfect i dont like bein made out to be a liar. I never contested how you got to your stats. All im sayin is i checked my results against a long line of epl results and it came out at 87 per cent. Anyway paul back to the point of your thread, good luck mate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PERFECT Posted October 7, 2009 Share Posted October 7, 2009 Re: Away lay system Ok Dann, i wrote it because i think it could be usefull to Paul. But i’m sure it isn’t 87%. Or maybe it’s 87% with a few of games. One question: how many games you’v checked in your long line? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bednar9 Posted October 7, 2009 Share Posted October 7, 2009 Re: Away lay system If your laying them don't you also have to have the liability? I've always been interested in laying, especially for a system such as this but I don't know if I could afford the liability with the stake I want to put on with the odds offered. Anyone? With a system like this do you have to account for liability or it is possible to do it a different way? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 7, 2009 Share Posted October 7, 2009 Re: Away lay system hi bednar, there are ways of doin it wit out layin liability, by backin the other 2 outcomes wit an amount that generates the same target. Although technically what you stake in backin two outcomes generates the same profit as the amount you would lay on the third outcome if that makes sense? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paul2009 Posted October 7, 2009 Author Share Posted October 7, 2009 Re: Away lay system No other games qualify till saturday:wall:wall:wall International break,:@... There are too many ways of getting odds for a game. Betfair, 365, or rf outlook, which i get. I only looked for the past two weeks in rfo only. But these odds would of been slightly different fo others. I am very intersted in danns stats, gonna check them tmoro on 365. I know this didnt get off to a good start but i believe in this and will for continue doing it. Simply to see if it works, cause at the end of the day... All we want is to give up our day jobs and live wealthy:rollin:rollin:rollin... And FIND THE PERFECT SYSTEM:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paul2009 Posted October 7, 2009 Author Share Posted October 7, 2009 Re: Away lay system unlucky paul on the tamworth game. football-data.co.uk is the best site out there for checking hisotrical data ive had a quick look and when away odds are between 2.5 and 3.5, 87% result in home win or draw. Meaning value lay odds should be around 7ish, hence getting odds of between 2.5 and 3.5 should be extremely profitable in the long run. i will watch this with a lo of interst paul - good luck On which bookmakers was these odds found dann... Cheers:dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 7, 2009 Share Posted October 7, 2009 Re: Away lay system bet365 mate:dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bednar9 Posted October 9, 2009 Share Posted October 9, 2009 Re: Away lay system hi bednar' date=' there are ways of doin it wit out layin liability, by backin the other 2 outcomes wit an amount that generates the same target. Although technically what you stake in backin two outcomes generates the same profit as the amount you would lay on the third outcome if that makes sense?[/quote'] Appreciate the reply mate cheers. So you mean basically you bet on the home team + draw instead of laying the away side? Think I've got it. Would just like to make sure as this sort of system does sound very interesting. Good luck with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 9, 2009 Share Posted October 9, 2009 Re: Away lay system Appreciate the reply mate cheers. So you mean basically you bet on the home team + draw instead of laying the away side? Think I've got it. Would just like to make sure as this sort of system does sound very interesting. Good luck with it. yes m8 thats right Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paul2009 Posted October 9, 2009 Author Share Posted October 9, 2009 Re: Away lay system After a bit of research, Im only gonna use this trial system with matches that matter. Rules are as follows.... 1. No cup games whatsoever ( in my mind, cup games will always come second to league games, which means weakened teams and unreliable results) :D 2. All league games from England, Scotland, Italy, Spain and Germany only...:D 3. No non league games either!!! :D I will publish results in each of there countries and also a total score. For this purpose i will stake two units ( min on betfair) for each lay:D. I will not introduce another filter on this system, it either works:hope or it doesnt:wall... This saturdays fixtures has only thrown up two, cause of the international break... ACCRINGTON v CHELTENHAM..... lay cheltenham @ 2.94 GRIMSBY v BURTON..................lay burton @ 3.05 Prices matched @ 17:45.. So this is what could happen... Accrington win or draw: I win 1.90 points after liability.... If Cheltenham win i lose 4.10 points... Same goes for the other game... Gonna stick this system out for one month, and see what happens ppl...:nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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