Southwell 29th Sept (AW)

[chris34]

1.50 Southwell Course form is vital round here and Koo and the Gang won what looks a good maiden around here in may, 2nd has gone on to win off a mark as high of 86, 4th was second off a mark of 83 and a few others have gone on to win off lower marks form is extremely strong and although having a few months off if in same fettle around here again from a good low draw to make all again, you will prob no its fate before the off as its owned by a pro punter! 0.5pt e/w koo and the gang (hopefully depending on price if not 1pt win) 3.20 Southwell A fantastic little handicap with so many of these with southwell form but showing little signs of form on turf recently so looking for reignition back round here so min stake job for me. Angel Rock looks far too bigger price at 8/1 having won round great leighs off a mark of 79 and won recently on soft ground at Newcastle off todays mark and has a good draw from stall 3 0.25pt e/w angel rock 8/1 bet365 3.50 Southwell Another handicap full of out of form sorts but well handicapped on southwell form. Boss hog was 2nd three times around here back end of 2008 in handicaps off a mark of 65 then went on to win a maiden round here doesn’t look the most straightforward but Callan an eyecathing booking and only rated 55 today and showed a little hope last time out. Dado mash may still be struggling with race fitness but hope for a return to form today as is well handicapped 13lb lower than last winning mark and laura pike able to take a further 7lb off looks a good outsider shot. 0.25pt e/w boss hog 0.25pt e/w dado mash 4.50 Southwell Valid point is in fantastic form at the moment and just cant be crossed off again even off a 6lb higher mark today when winning super cosily yet again, has run well at wolverhampton but yet to be seen at southwell but run style is likely to suit prominent or lead. 2pt win valid point 5.20 Southwell Defector finally got his nose in front at kempton a couple of weeks ago and had previously been in consistent form including a couple of trips round here, is raised 3lb for win which doesn’t look harsh but a bad draw to overcome! 0.25pt e/w defector

[fintron]

Re: Southwell 29th Sept (AW) 4.20 Southwell I've spent a while trying to crack this handicap as it has been ages since I last managed a winner at Southwell. Having studied the race the tissue I came up with was as follows: The Nifty Fox 15/2, Ocean Blaze 17/2, Guto 10/1, Rebel Duke 10/1, Invincible Lad 11/1, Pawan 12/1, Tabaret 12/1, Hypnosis 12/1, Luscivious 16/1, Baby Strange 18/1, Flash McGahon 18/1, Tom's Laughter 20/1, Imprimus Tagula 28/1, Lesley's Choice 33/1. The obvious discrepency between my prices and those available at the minute surround the Dandy horse, but even if my price underestimates him too much, I cannot be having him at 11/2 as I think he is one of those you have to put into the "too tough to find without guesswork" category, given his recent form. His mark has plumetted a stone and headgear may help this one that may have been plotted but I make The Nifty Fox and Luscivious the value bets in the race, and have opted for the latter. He has won three times at this course, including once over this trip, and once in this grade, and his prominent racing style is ideal for this minimum trip. It was not that long ago that we won off 4 lb lower and his run at Catterick can be ignored on the basis of a poor draw and him not having the race run to suit. At Ayr, last time out, he also broke a little slowly and was forced to race in mid-division, and that was not ideal. So although he must break better tomorrow considering they will go all guns blazing, I think he is overpriced. The yard do at least have a recent winner to their name and he wasn't disgraced running under a penalty on his last all-weather start at Wolverhampton. The return to fibresand could see him improve and I'll take him each-wat at a price. 20/1 Bet 365, 7.5 pts win, 2.5 pts place (3 places, 1/4 odds).