neomosquito Posted September 21, 2009 Share Posted September 21, 2009 Hi guys, this is the first thread I'm starting and it'll be about how to always win without any risk using sports arbitrage. The first post will be divided into 2 parts separated with a long line. The first part talks about how to derive the system while the second teaches you how to use the system. Of course, you don't need to read part 1 to use part 2. The system is very simple to use ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ok. So what is sports arbitrage. It simply means to gain an advantage over the bookies so that you will win 100%. For illustration purposes, we will use a football match between Liverpool and Manchester United. There are 3 outcomes of the match at full time, Liverpool win, Manchester win, or Draw. Depending on what the bookies think, the assign different odds to the three outcomes. Let's say Liverpool is at home and are the favourites. Odds for Liverpool win is at 2.0, odds of draw is at 1.6 and odds of Manchester win is at 4.0. If I were to bet my money on all three outcomes, I would lose a minimum of 37.5%. 1/2.0 + 1/1.6 + 1/4.0 = 1.375 1.375 - 1.0 = 0.375 = 37.5% No matter how I bet, there would always be a risk for me. However, if Bookmaker A favours Manchester, the odds at Bookmaker A for Liverpool win would be, let's say, 2.5. And, Bookmaker B favours Liverpool, the odds at Bookmaker B for Manchester win would be 2.5. A third bookmaker, Bookmaker C, may give a draw at odds 10.0. In this case, 1/2.5 + 1/2.5 + 1/10.0 = 0.9 0.9 - 1.0 = -0.1 = -10% If I bet in a certain way, I can make a maximum profit of 10%. So, how much to bet on each case? Let's say I want to bet a maximum of $100 on an outcome. Thus, I would bet $100 for Liverpool win, $100 for Manchester win, and $25 for Draw. No matter the outcome, I would take home a profit of $25. If you are interested to know how to calculate it, then read on. Take the lowest odds, which is 2.5 for Liverpool win, and multiply by $100. You will get $250. Take $250 and divide it by the respective odds to get the amount of money to bet. Stake for Manchester win = $250/2.5 = $100 Stake for Draw = $250/10.0 = $25 Thus, we need to find a match where different bookmakers give us different odds such that we will profit when we bet on all the outcomes. Read on to find out how to. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- We will use all free services available on the internet. First, go to a odds comparison website. Given by this forum, we will use www.odds-comparison.co.uk. Go to football, as we will use this as an example for illustration purposes, and click on a match, as it has three possible outcomes at full time. Look up a column at the far end which gives out percentage numbers. You do not need to know how to derive those numbers, just search for those below 100%. We will then need to know how much to bet on each outcome. Go to www.scalpulator.com or any free scalpulator and type in the odds for the three outcomes. Key in the total amount of money you want to bet on an outcome at the side and tick 'risk'. Press enter, and the stakes will be all out for you, and even the Return on Investment (ROI) are out. It is a simple calculator for you although you can do the tedious work of calculation if you want. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Let's start small. Based on www.odds-comparison.co.uk, although you would really need to go to the individual websites to affirm the odds, odds of Wigan Athletic win is 12.0, odds of Chelsea win is 1.42, and odds of Draw is 5.0. Using ww.scalpulator.com, we are going to bet $1000 on Chelsea win, $284 on Draw, and $118 on Wigan win. Total stakes: $1000 + $284 + $118 = $1402 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neomosquito Posted September 22, 2009 Author Share Posted September 22, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage For the Wigan Athletic vs Chelsea match on 22/09/2009, Stan James offer 10.0 for a Wigan win at half-time, Coral offer 2.62 for Draw at half-time, and Canbet offer 1.96 for Chelsea win a half-time. We are going to bet $196 on Wigan win at half-time, $748 on Draw at half-time, and $1000 on Chelsea win at half-time. Total stakes for this match: $196 +$748 + $1000 = $1944 Total stakes till date: $1944 + $1402 = $3346 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gooner steve Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage Put 1k on Chelsea and then have a month off from your system :tongue2, only joking. This is the game on the 26th Sep? Have you actually placed all of these bets at these odds? I see Wigan and Chelsea odds have changed now. Like I said before odds change all the time and unless the bets are actually made at these odds then its all irrelavant. I have never done this before and am intrested in your findings but I dont think the system would be one I partake in. Good luck mate :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted September 22, 2009 Share Posted September 22, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage arbing is a minefield, easy to get stuck or limited good luck though, will follow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neomosquito Posted September 23, 2009 Author Share Posted September 23, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage ya. 'placed bets' at that point of time. didn't mention this is a paper trail. actually saw barcelona vs racing santander, and the osasuna match having great arbitrage. but at the time of reading, my internet connection came down and couldn't post. so just assume that i did not place my bets then. hahas. there would definitely be more great arbitrages coming up! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neomosquito Posted September 23, 2009 Author Share Posted September 23, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage ok. we are going to bet on 23/9/09 CD Tenerife vs Athletico Bilbao. Bluesquare offer 2.6 CD Tenerife win at full-time, Betfair offer 3.6 at draw at full-time, and Betdaq offer 3.05 Athletico Bilbao win at full-time. We will bet $1000 win Bluesquare, $722 with Betair, and $852 with Betdaq. Total stakes = $1000 + $722 + $ 852 = $2574 Total stakes till date unresolved = $2574 +$3346 = $5920 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage As it's a paper trail the results are of very limited use. You simply don't know if the bookmakers will accept the amounts of money you are proposing. And considering many bookmakers have a reputation of putting quite low limits it's safe to assume it will be a problem. The other problem is with timing. You write down an arb when you see the prices, fine. The problem is it takes time to place the actual bet and during that time the second or third bookmaker can change it's price so by the time you get to place the 3rd bet the arb no longer exists. Again, not something that will show up in this paper trail. When using Betfair you should write the price minus the commission, 3.6 becomes 3.47 after commission, does the arb still exist at that price ? Arbing, nice in theory, tricky in practice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage Arbing funded my spending money for my holiday this year. £1,200 made in six months by taking advantage of opening account offers. Since July I have made £60 in taking simple arbs on horses and football and i fully expect to be making £10 per week this season on arbs alone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ultravires Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage In my mind it only seems worth arbing if you have serious money to use and are able to do so. Then when you factor in limits that reduces the advantage in using lots of money. I dont have the money and it all seems like a lot of hassle for minimal gains. Plus if I do get unstuck then it could be messy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage Since July I have made £60 in taking simple arbs on horses and football and i fully expect to be making £10 per week this season on arbs alone. How much time have you spent on it ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neomosquito Posted September 23, 2009 Author Share Posted September 23, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage hi barrhead73, i was really looking hard for someone who could really teach me how to earn more by combing arbitrage and free bets. could you please be the one who teaches me that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage How much time have you spent on it ? I usually have a quick browse through odds checker at lunchtimes to try and get some arbs on the horses. And then i usually spend an hour or teo on saturday mornings getting the soccer arbs sorted out. A good spreadsheet is all thats required. I prefer just backing and laying rather than arbing 3 outcomes with seperate bookies as the odds can change quickly! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted September 23, 2009 Share Posted September 23, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage hi barrhead73' date=' i was really looking hard for someone who could really teach me how to earn more by combing arbitrage and free bets. could you please be the one who teaches me that?[/quote'] Go to moneysavingexpert dot com and go to the forums for introductory offers and loopholes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cypotypo Posted September 24, 2009 Share Posted September 24, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage hi neo dunno if u know dis page, but i think you'll like it. This system simply do the job for you and many more. just check it and see urself ;) http://betting4all.com/cz/?jisté-sázky-dle-betbrain,250 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cypotypo Posted September 24, 2009 Share Posted September 24, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage btw i think its possible to start with 100, even if its worthy of few bucks, but this system will tell you everyday which games to play with to make a profit and if you keep repeating, in few months you can staking 1000 from money you made on arb. itself ! this seem to be the way to succes in this system if you dont have a money ...thats doesnt matter, if you got a time ! ;). dark side of it can be fees etc if you making deposits/withdrawall all the time. it that case might be usefull just pick max. 5 bookies and work only with them, keep cash possibly on acount for longer time instead of dep / with. all the time.. . again , the system will tell you what game to put ans where to go, so its should be easy to find a way ... "should" cose i havent try yet.. if you dont get greedy, its all right ! even bookies dont mind, because you always somewhere win, somewhere loose, so they get business of you anyway !. in long term it could be the way to get rich 4 sure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neomosquito Posted September 24, 2009 Author Share Posted September 24, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage thanks cypotypo for the website. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neomosquito Posted September 24, 2009 Author Share Posted September 24, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage update: Athletico Bilbao won against CD Tenerife. Returns on the match = $852 x 3.05 = $2599 Profits = $2599 - $2574 = $25 Total stakes still unresolved = $3346 Total profit till date (1 match) = $25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neomosquito Posted September 24, 2009 Author Share Posted September 24, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage sorry Datapunter. i realised my negligence. fortunately for me, the draw didn't come up and i escaped with a lesson to learn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neomosquito Posted September 24, 2009 Author Share Posted September 24, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage hey barrhead73, opening account offers are often one-time. does that mean that you still make the most of your money from arbing? anyway, do you find that arbing on horses is most profitable? if so, i could do some serious research on it. hahas! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrhead73 Posted September 24, 2009 Share Posted September 24, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage Neo, As well as opening offers some bookies offer reload bonuses to tempt you back to using them again. Generally you only get those from certain bookies and they are usually the ones you have lost at (i.e. you have won at Betfair). Horses are an easy killing. For example today i back a horse, Lady Korriana at odds of 15's with Betfred and laid the same horse at Betfair at 12.5. On a £25 stake thats a guaranteed return of £3.62 for the win or £3.64 if it loses (which it did). And thats after Betfairs commission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neomosquito Posted September 25, 2009 Author Share Posted September 25, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage hi barrhead. i had previously thought that i understood arbing using laying and backing. after reading your post, i felt like a novice once again. could you tell me how much was your stake on back and lay? cause i just could not get the numbers of $3.62 for a $25 stake. thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neomosquito Posted September 25, 2009 Author Share Posted September 25, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage ok. 26/9/09. AJ Auxerre vs Grenoble. betEd offer 2.00 at Under, and Betfair offer 2.54 at Over. We are going to bet $1000 at betEd and $773 at Betfair. Total stakes = $1000 +$773 = $1773 Total stakes unresolved = $3346 + $1773 = $5119 Total profit till date (4 matches betted, 3 matches unresolved) = $25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neomosquito Posted September 26, 2009 Author Share Posted September 26, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage tennis. hansol korea open tennis championships. Groenefeld, AL against Edina Garrigues, A. Sporting bet offers 2.45 Gronefeld win, and Betclick offers 1.72 Edina win. We are going to bet $412 with Sportingbet and $588 with Betclick. Total stakes for this match: $1000 Total stakes unresolved = $5119 + $1000 =$6119 Total profit till date (5matches staked, 4 unresolved) = $25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted September 26, 2009 Share Posted September 26, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage Sportingbet requires a full set to be played, Betclick requires a single point to be played, if Edina Garrigues retires after at least one point but before the end of the first set, Sportingbet will void the bet and return the stake, Betclick will settle the bet as a loser. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neomosquito Posted September 27, 2009 Author Share Posted September 27, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage omg. im making so many mistakes. thanks datapunter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neomosquito Posted September 27, 2009 Author Share Posted September 27, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage update: 27/9/09 half-time bet on Chelsea against Wigan: Wigan won Chelsea 1-0 at half-time, so the income = $196 x 10.0 = $1960 Profit for Chelsea against Wigan (half-time): $1960 - $1944 = $16 full-time bet on Chelsea against Wigan: Wigan won Chelsea 3-1 at full-time, so income = $118 x 12.0 = $1416 Profit for Chelsea against Wigan (full-time) = $1416 - $1402 = $14 AJ Auxerre against Grenoble (Over/Under): Under occurred, so income = $1000 x 2.0 = $2000 Profit for AJ Auxerre against Grenoble (Over/Under) = $2000 - $1773 = $227 Groenefeld, AL against Medina Garrigues, A(tennis) Medina Garrigues won, so income = $588 x 1.72 = $1011 Profit for Groenefeld, AL against Edina Garrigues, A = $1011 - $1000 = $11 Total profit for 4 games = $16 + $14 + $227 +$11 = $268 Total stakes unresolved = $0 Total profit till date (5 matches staked, 0 unresolved) = $25 + $268 = $293 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neomosquito Posted September 27, 2009 Author Share Posted September 27, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage Baseball. Cincinnati Reds against Houston Astros. Pinnacle offer 2.520 at Cincinnati win, Stan James offer 1.670 Houston win. We are going to bet $399 win Pinnacle and $601 with Stan James American Football Minnesota Vikings against SF 49ers. Pinnacle offer 1.46 Minnesota win, BetWay offer 3.6 SF 49ers win. We are going to bet $711 with Pinnacle and $289 with BetWay. HOU Texans against JAX Jaguars. Pinnacle offer 1.62 Texans win, Betfair offer 2.78 Jaguars win. We are going to bet $625 with Pinnacle and $375 with Betfair. Football Kocaelispor against Giresunspor. Expekt offer 2.75 Kocaelispor win, Betfair offer 4.00 draw, Unibet offer 2.8 Girensunspor win. We are going to bet $371 with Expekt, $265 with Betfair and $364 with Unibet. Total stakes for today: $4000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogsmith Posted September 27, 2009 Share Posted September 27, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage This is good stuff mate.I have looked at arbing a lot in the past but i just get worried about the fact bookies tend to close accounts or limit you.Have you had any trouble with this,and how do you go about using the different bookies do you just deposit when needed or do you leave money in lots of accounts to use as and when. From the link put up earlier (betbrain) i see lots of bookies being used that arnt that well known are these all ok because as we all know some can not be very reliable.Cheers mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gooner steve Posted September 27, 2009 Share Posted September 27, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage This is good stuff mate.I have looked at arbing a lot in the past but i just get worried about the fact bookies tend to close accounts or limit you.Have you had any trouble with this,and how do you go about using the different bookies do you just deposit when needed or do you leave money in lots of accounts to use as and when. From the link put up earlier (betbrain) i see lots of bookies being used that arnt that well known are these all ok because as we all know some can not be very reliable.Cheers mate. You really need to treat this thread as a theory of how arbing works and nothing more, as I understand this is a paper trail! With arbing its easy to say "I could of made £x amount" but the real challenge is moving large sums of money around, staying off the bookies radar and getting the money on at the right odds. You have to take into acccount commision and alot of unseen circumstances (See Datapunter post "26/09 14:37"). I really do think this is a very risky system that appears easy. It should come with a health warning:eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neomosquito Posted September 27, 2009 Author Share Posted September 27, 2009 Re: Sure-win using sports arbitrage sorry to pour a wet blanket. but this is just a paper trail. very likely, i am betting on real money at the turn of the year. but i would most likely start small then, and then slowly up my bets. however, for now, to everyone's dismay, it will still remain a paper trail. but folks, stay tuned for interesting stuff coming up. as you have noticed, i have made several mistakes. however, i see it in a positive light because if mistakes are pointed out in the paper trail, then mistakes would less likely in the real one. one mistake i've learnt is about the commission. i sometimes neglect the commissions from betfair and other betting exchanges and other bookies too. however, i have found a way to incorporate the commission into the odds. if you have noticed, from the previous post, there would still be a profit even if the commissions are paid out. certainly. this system should come with a health warning; that is way i am going to bet my real money to test out the system the coming year. stay tuned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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